WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GFS is showing Phillys seasonal total all in one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The UK is starting to look nice too. Some of this would be sleet and ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 34 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Does that also apply to western Triad? It could start as sleet there for a while too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 This is shaping up to be a major ice storm here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Definitely like the foothills and western Piedmont for a mixed bag as of now. Will need a continued cold trend to get the triangle in the game. Still time for trends in either direction 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I expect the trough to sharpen and strengthen more on modeling as we get closer just like what happened with Monday’s system. That’s good and bad, imo. If it plays out like that, it will mean more waa, but it will also strengthen the low pressure west of the apps before it transfers to the coast which is a key ingredient for strong CAD. You don’t usually get strong low level cad without a Miller b style low pressure west of the apps. that will mean less chance of any snow for northern Nc, but increases odds for damaging ice in the NC foothills,Bc of increased qpf and better cad feed. just my opinion, fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Also, that assumes the confluence/high pressure remains as modeled. Weakening or strengthening of that of course has a big effect on wintry outcome for all of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 28 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Definitely like the foothills and western Piedmont for a mixed bag as of now. Will need a continued cold trend to get the triangle in the game. Still time for trends in either direction Thanks for pinpointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Interesting look on the GEFS 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 This type of ICE will be definite Winter Storm Warning Criteria... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1/4-1/2" of ICE is looking likely in the favored areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The 12z Euro is even less impressive than the 00z. It’s like, what CAD? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 FYI, a thread was started for Wednesday - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54172-ice-time-dec-16ish-possible-cad-event/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, jjwxman said: The 12z Euro is even less impressive than the 00z. It’s like, what CAD? Tends to over amp. I wouldn’t be overly concerned and is not known to sniff out cad. For the GFS and GEFS to be honking is a big tell tale sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 November’s AMO index saw a sharp decline to 0.125. Good sign for AO/NAO but hasn't been negative since December 2018 and we know what happened then.Also some warmer water showing up around Greenland. Get another attack on the Polar Vortex starting Dec.20th in my opinion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 how about that last frame on the 18Z GFS? SC bullseye... plenty of time for the NW trend for us NC folks haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 how about that last frame on the 18Z GFS? SC bullseye... plenty of time for the NW trend for us NC folks hahaI saw that and muttered, “hey, a southern slider” my wife just gave me a blank stare... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I told myself over and over not to trust GFS 18z, but I can’t look away. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/3/2020 at 10:08 PM, griteater said: Looking out in the long range, after this period of +PNA / Western North America ridging, here's a possible path that may give us or the mid-atlantic another storm threat... 1. Western ridge retrogrades west to the west coast or far east Pacific 2. One or 2 storms eject out of the SW on a track from northern NM to NYC in the Dec 12-15 timeframe. Ideally, the last system along this track would wind up strongly over the Northeast (with some Scandinavia > Greenland ridging kicking in). Cold air fills in behind. 3. Follow-on system would then kick out of the southern plains into colder air over the SE/mid-Atlantic in the Dec 15-18 timeframe. 4. Post Dec 18, it looks like we may warm up with negative height anomalies settling into Alaska This is going to work out pretty well (for once), though the vision I had for the storm threat (#3) was more of a west to east, moderate strength storm as opposed to a full-on nor'easter. Going forward, both Anthony Masiello (HM) and Isotherm are honking for January (these are 2 of the best out there for long range discussion): Anthony - https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1338312081926447117?s=20 Isotherm - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54035-my-winter-outlook-2020-21/?do=findComment&comment=5732631 Anthony is expecting an MJO orbit through phases 7-8-1-2 late Dec thru January - https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1337383148112449538?s=20 Here is what MJO Phase 8 looks like in early January on average - suppressed tropical convection in the Maritime Continent (orange/red/white colors), ridge over Alaska / Western Canada / Greenland, trough east of the Rockies: 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, griteater said: This is going to work out pretty well (for once), though the vision I had for the storm threat (#3) was more of a west to east, moderate strength storm as opposed to a full-on nor'easter. Going forward, both Anthony Masiello (HM) and Isotherm are honking for January (these are 2 of the best out there for long range discussion): Anthony - https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1338312081926447117?s=20 Isotherm - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54035-my-winter-outlook-2020-21/?do=findComment&comment=5732631 Anthony is expecting an MJO orbit through phases 7-8-1-2 late Dec thru January - https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1337383148112449538?s=20 Here is what MJO Phase 8 looks like in early January on average - suppressed tropical convection in the Maritime Continent (orange/red/white colors), ridge over Alaska / Western Canada / Greenland, trough east of the Rockies: Great info grit and could not agree more. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I hope they are right, great post Grit.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, griteater said: This is going to work out pretty well (for once), though the vision I had for the storm threat (#3) was more of a west to east, moderate strength storm as opposed to a full-on nor'easter. Going forward, both Anthony Masiello (HM) and Isotherm are honking for January (these are 2 of the best out there for long range discussion): Anthony - https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1338312081926447117?s=20 Isotherm - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54035-my-winter-outlook-2020-21/?do=findComment&comment=5732631 Anthony is expecting an MJO orbit through phases 7-8-1-2 late Dec thru January - https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1337383148112449538?s=20 Here is what MJO Phase 8 looks like in early January on average - suppressed tropical convection in the Maritime Continent (orange/red/white colors), ridge over Alaska / Western Canada / Greenland, trough east of the Rockies: Excellent job Grit! Calls were very accurate looking back. Hope you and the rest are just as accurate with late December going into January. Feels like it may actually be real this time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Are you sure we're allowed to have a good pattern heading into January? That doesn't seem right. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Dunkman said: Are you sure we're allowed to have a good pattern heading into January? That doesn't seem right. Ha, yeah it won't mean anything until we see it show up close in Hard to believe these AO charts given what we've seen in the past 7 years or so. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Yesterday's GEFS Extended Control Run (Dec 26 - Jan 17) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Today's Euro Weekly Control Run (Jan 2 - Jan 29) 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 46 minutes ago, griteater said: Today's Euro Weekly Control Run (Jan 2 - Jan 29) Let me know if I need to check in on the in-laws the first week of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: Let me know if I need to check in on the in-laws the first week of January. Going up there this weekend. I’ll tell them to ‘get ready’ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 7:51 AM, buckeyefan1 said: I agree with this and expect a flip back the first half of January 19 hours ago, griteater said: This is going to work out pretty well (for once), though the vision I had for the storm threat (#3) was more of a west to east, moderate strength storm as opposed to a full-on nor'easter. Going forward, both Anthony Masiello (HM) and Isotherm are honking for January (these are 2 of the best out there for long range discussion): Anthony - https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1338312081926447117?s=20 Isotherm - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54035-my-winter-outlook-2020-21/?do=findComment&comment=5732631 Anthony is expecting an MJO orbit through phases 7-8-1-2 late Dec thru January - https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1337383148112449538?s=20 Here is what MJO Phase 8 looks like in early January on average - suppressed tropical convection in the Maritime Continent (orange/red/white colors), ridge over Alaska / Western Canada / Greenland, trough east of the Rockies: I’m not sure our thoughts have agreed this closely in almost a decade I don’t know whether to be scared or stoked. I’m going with the latter 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Christmas night snowstorm on happy hour gfs ...........we take 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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