griteater Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, FLweather said: I know. But current global models are a toss up. That engery dropping from the NW seems to open up and flatten the wave. Needs to consolidate and strengthen more. As it drops in from the NW to TX,Ok. Like grit posted. That would help with the confluence. I'd actually like to see the storm wave with less amplitude. More wave amplitude means warmer and farther north sfc low. We should have plenty of storm here, we just want to see the 50/50 low stronger / farther south / slower to escape off the E Canada coast - all equals colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Say what you will about the models, but once CAD is locked into the forecast, I cant remember the last time CAD underperformed here in the triad. We're in the honey pot here for pingers and ZR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Say what you will about the models, but once CAD is locked into the forecast, I cant remember the last time CAD underperformed here in the triad. We're in the honey pot here for pingers and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Interesting map, I would have expected the darker blue and white to follow down the eastern slopes of the blue ridge more. I have seen nasty ice storms right along the escarpment and rain in the piedmont plenty of times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, wncsnow said: Interesting map, I would have expected the darker blue and white to follow down the eastern slopes of the blue ridge more. I gave seen nasty ice storms right along the escarpment and rain in the piedmont plenty of times. True, it's probably missing on the fine details, but gives the big picture view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The first wave is trending stronger and stronger for Sunday night/Monday. West Virginia could get over 6 inches in spots and most of Western NC gets 1.5 to 2 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Euro doesn't quite get it done. Starts off as mix in western NC North of 40 then goes over to rain. Not heavy qpf west of 77 but about .5 for most. The low is too far north even DC goes over to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Some of this is from the first storm but West Virginia to Central PA turns into snow central. 2 feet lollipops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Trend is most important here. Definitely liking this one from an ice perspective in the usual spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Given the amplitude of the incoming sub tropical wave and the increasingly (trending) stronger confluent setup over the northeast, someone is likely to see a very high impact ip/zr storm in the mid Atlantic. Whether its central VA or central/western NC, still too early to say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6z GFS coming in colder... this thing might have legs Favored CAD areas, interested to see future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6Z GFS and ICON colder. Trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 6Z GFS and ICON colder. Trend continues. The takeaway that may make all the worlds difference to the south and west of me is the fact that GFS continues to scoot the HP off to the east as the storm begins its trek up the coast. Canadian kind of anchors it in place more so. That could have major implications for people on the cusp of a very cold rain or a prolonged icing event. Betting man I’d say Canadian wins out because it’s built more like nam to sniff out those instances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Is it me or is this thing trending more towards a gulf low, Miller A Type?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 hours ago, griteater said: Well that about nails it. Nice find Grit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 47 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Is it me or is this thing trending more towards a gulf low, Miller A Type?? Agreed. It’s not a genuine one but it’s like a hybrid if there’s such thing. I don’t think the gfs is right in depicting the primary hanging on for that amount of time or driving that far into the high pressure. It used to fail before upgrade occurred. I alluded to this in mid Atlantic forum but don’t know if this has been corrected since upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 There isn't any hope for this area at this point so I may go to NOVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 9 hours ago, wncsnow said: Interesting map, I would have expected the darker blue and white to follow down the eastern slopes of the blue ridge more. I have seen nasty ice storms right along the escarpment and rain in the piedmont plenty of times. Triad is the capital of ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 In the Triangle, at least the Raleigh area, it has been some time since we had more than a nuisance ice event. Not that I’d want one, but we have not had a significant freezing rain storm in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 If the global models are close on the details... the surface temps in cad regions will come in much colder on the hi-res models when they get in range. You can take that to the bank (assuming the h5 depiction doesn’t change much.. and it probably will, lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Triad is the capital of ice. The Blue Ridge escarpment begs to differ. Elevation can make things worse trust me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Someone mentioned the ICON. (I know, it's the ICON but we're looking for trends here lol) It has came in colder at least 4 runs in a row and it has weakened the northern energy a tick each time. Would love to see that SLP trend weaker on other models today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, wncsnow said: The Blue Ridge escarpment begs to differ. Elevation can make things worse trust me. Not even been moved into my new place a month and ice storm on the horizon. Good thing I got the propane tank filled up yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Looking more and more like a significant foothills ice storm. Yikes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 50 minutes ago, burrel2 said: If the global models are close on the details... the surface temps in cad regions will come in much colder on the hi-res models when they get in range. You can take that to the bank (assuming the h5 depiction doesn’t change much.. and it probably will, lol) Watching the ensemble trends, my take is that the changes going forward at h5 will be subtle. One reason for this is that the main features are large in scale (i.e. the 50/50 low and the large wave traversing the country). Now it comes down to seeing how far southwest the CAD will setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I think the foothills will start out as snow and sleet then switch over. GFS hints at this. Maybe an inch or 2 before switching to ZR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I think the foothills will start out as snow and sleet then switch over. GFS hints at this. Maybe an inch or 2 before switching to ZR I could see that happen, definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 18 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I think the foothills will start out as snow and sleet then switch over. GFS hints at this. Maybe an inch or 2 before switching to ZR Does that also apply to western Triad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Well the most important thing is....Who's gonna start the thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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