burrel2 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 It’s not horrible, imo. If that blocking regime is the theme for the winter we will have our chances. Ao/nao blocking will produce for us if it hangs around/dominates the winter pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/9/2020 at 1:48 PM, BullCityWx said: The euro isnt as amped this run(also it's coming in super weird on weatherbell) but does appear to have snow from about a rough line from Columbus, MS to Birmingham to Atlanta to Charlotte. Somehow the snow line skips over the entire upstate. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 13 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: Uh oh. We have a Burrel siting. Winnies will be on full alert now. Love seeing burrel post, you know there's at least a shot of something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 3 hours ago, griteater said: I'm a big fan of -AOs and -NAOs, but this consolidation of blue anomalies from East Asia to Alaska is not a good sight for getting cold down into our region (and most of the lower 48 as well). This is from the EPS Mean in 5 day increments from days 4 to 15. Maybe the one redeeming quality is that it consolidates some serious cold in NW Canada to potentially dislodge down the road. Yeah this has been a concern for me watching this play out. We will lose the blocking eventually and that look never produces for us. A cold Alaska does not really equate to a cold East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 12 hours ago, Met1985 said: Yeah this has been a concern for me watching this play out. We will lose the blocking eventually and that look never produces for us. A cold Alaska does not really equate to a cold East. The Models are picking up on the MJO signal in concert with the Niña forcing in the PAC. Screaming PAC Jet. It is possible, a ridge may try to poke up occasionally in the NE PAC due to the warm SSTS there and an AK Vortex retro to Aleutians. That would be great. Hopefully, La Niña will rapidly weaken and those NE PAC SST'S remain warm and blocking continues then, we'll be in business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Both the Euro and GFS look like shite for this part of NC, unless you like a little ice and cold rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Time to go full weenie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 32 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Time to go full weenie? It’s extreme but not out of the question as things are trending a little south/colder at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/10/2020 at 10:15 AM, ILMRoss said: Whatever next week is fits neatly into the same category of the Monday system. It has upside, may be worth some token stuff, but a lot of things need to break in the right direction for it to be anything more than that. I would pay attention to how much the associated S/W digs/cuts off and if it keeps the integrity of that cut-off through the SE on today's model runs- some positive developments there would be cool. Generally anything progged to put snow down in Oklahoma and moving laterally warrants at least a lazy eye for our Carolina folks. ^ here's a take that aged like milk in a hot car. it happens. For next Wednesday, don't really think it's our storm unless you're above 2k feet (even then, apps may have moisture issues). That CAD high will need to get stronger or drop south some for this storm to be relevant to non-mountain folks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 50 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: ^ here's a take that aged like milk in a hot car. it happens. For next Wednesday, don't really think it's our storm unless you're above 2k feet (even then, apps may have moisture issues). That CAD high will need to get stronger or drop south some for this storm to be relevant to non-mountain folks. Great point, I think there’s still time for things to trend our way, but I also have a hard time trusting thermals on globals, especially this far out. Especially when it’s the CMC. It’s not too far out from NAM range, and I’d like to see what it looks like when it gets its hands on temp profiles throughout the different layers of the atmosphere. It doesn’t have the feel of an outside-the-mountains/foothills type storm, but there’s still time I suppose. Either way, the ceiling is probably low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 The Euro is very interesting, if the CAD is stronger it could be a serious ice storm for I 40 north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: The Euro is very interesting, if the CAD is stronger it could be a serious ice storm for I 40 north I was going to say I felt like it took a significant step toward the GEM. We don’t lack but a degree or two as highs went down about 5 degrees on Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Taken verbatim, the 12z Euro has me at 32+ and rain Wednesday morning... You're a mean one... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 hours ago, BullCityWx said: I was going to say I felt like it took a significant step toward the GEM. We don’t lack but a degree or two as highs went down about 5 degrees on Wednesday. The likely hood of it resembling GEM is low. Both GFS and Canadian granted it's a 1030ish+ HP the placement of the high is not ideal for a CAD event. On top of that its retreating. Not to mention H5 wave is opening up as the surface develops. I know all too well. But this is going to be more than likely a low to mid 30s rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 0z GFS with a big snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic, with a significant ICE Storm for Northern NC, Southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z GFS with a big snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic, with a significant ICE Storm for Northern NC, Southern VA. 0.69” of fantasy ice IMBY. Top off the propane tank for the generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Wouldn't take much more of a CAD to bring people I-40 and south into the game. We need a solid trend, Euro will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Canadian was a big big run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Canadian was a big big run. Take with a grain of salt because of the cold bias but I 40 north should be paying this one close attention for ice storm possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 It will be interesting to see how the NAM handles the CAD once it gets in range since it's usually closest to verification in these setups. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Take with a grain of salt because of the cold bias but I 40 north should be paying this one close attention for ice storm possibilities. 0Z GFS definitely trended toward this. The ensembles were even more bullish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 0Z GFS definitely trended toward this. The ensembles were even more bullish. Good to hear. I'm hoping we can get sleet and snow here instead of ZR but usually we get all 3 in these type of setups if the parent high is strong enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Not trying to sound like a troll. But if you look at both models and timing. Far from a ice storm. 29-31 ain't going to cut it with day time warming and retreating cold. Ice storms are a limited process without a cold air supply. Especially when the CAD starts scouring out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Take with a grain of salt because of the cold bias but I 40 north should be paying this one close attention for ice storm possibilities. GEFS Mean was colder this run with 32 deg sfc along I 40. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, FLweather said: Not trying to sound like a troll. But if you look at both models and timing. Far from a ice storm. 29-31 ain't going to cut it with day time warming and retreating cold. Ice storms are a limited process without a cold air supply. Especially when the CAD starts scouring out. CAD almost always overperforms here, and with the NAO going negative I don't think the high is going to retreat that quickly. Miller B type systems like this are perfect for CAD setups. The coastal low can help funnel the NE winds down and keep the CAD in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GEFS trend loop showing 50/50 low near Newfoundland is trending stronger. Accordingly, look at how the height lines just to the north of the Great Lakes and NY State trend flatter thru the loop - this is increasing confluence that is making the surface high trend stronger and farther SW....also with farther south low pressure. Kind of funny that this is 4-5 days out as so much can change. Going forward, we'd want to see the 50/50 low to continue to trend stronger and farther south, and for the storm wave tracking across the heart of the country to trend a little farther south and with a little less amplitude. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: CAD almost always overperforms here, and with the NAO going negative I don't think the high is going to retreat that quickly. Miller B type systems like this are perfect for CAD setups. The coastal low can help funnel the NE winds down and keep the CAD in place I do agree that the CAD is probably going to end up being stronger, but since a majority of this is occurring during the day the ice accrual could be inhibited due to run off. Temps have to be in the upper 20’s for these .50”+ totals were seeing to verify in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Not going to happen for Cary but are there really temps for the Triad? Hard to see them at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 23 minutes ago, wncsnow said: CAD almost always overperforms here, and with the NAO going negative I don't think the high is going to retreat that quickly. Miller B type systems like this are perfect for CAD setups. The coastal low can help funnel the NE winds down and keep the CAD in place I know. But current global models are a toss up. That engery dropping from the NW seems to open up and flatten the wave. Needs to consolidate and strengthen more. As it drops in from the NW to TX,Ok. Like grit posted. That would help with the confluence. Baby steps but the puzzle pieces are not there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now