FLweather Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 0z Canadian. Va special? Surely the northern Piedmont to at least 85 would be in the game also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 9 hours ago, griteater said: Looking out in the long range, after this period of +PNA / Western North America ridging, here's a possible path that may give us or the mid-atlantic another storm threat... 1. Western ridge retrogrades west to the west coast or far east Pacific 2. One or 2 storms eject out of the SW on a track from northern NM to NYC in the Dec 12-15 timeframe. Ideally, the last system along this track would wind up strongly over the Northeast (with some Scandinavia > Greenland ridging kicking in). Cold air fills in behind. 3. Follow-on system would then kick out of the southern plains into colder air over the SE/mid-Atlantic in the Dec 15-18 timeframe. 4. Post Dec 18, it looks like we may warm up with negative height anomalies settling into Alaska I agree with this and expect a flip back the first half of January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 For Monday, to get anything more than light precip, it looks like the shortwave diving south out of MN needs to phase with the one tracking east out of Texas (this is all before the 3rd wave drops south out of the Great Lakes). The GFS/NAM/RGEM aren't phasing these first 2 waves. The Euro/CMC/UKMet/GFS Para/NAVGEM are phasing them. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Clark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 The 18z GFS is definitely a good step in the right direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 RDU to Greensboro little jackpot there. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Didn't the latest euro run back off this a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: RDU to Greensboro little jackpot there. Nice. It must be hiding from NWS. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 29. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 48. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 51. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 31. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 57. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 34. Friday Sunny, with a high near 58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Based on the NAM run, not really looking forward to the GFS this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 29 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: Based on the NAM run, not really looking forward to the GFS this time And just like that, this GFS run crushes our hopes. It looked nice on paper though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, magpiemaniac said: And just like that, this GFS run crushes our hopes. It looked nice on paper though. Meh.... let's see what the Euro has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 10 hours ago, jburns said: It must be hiding from NWS. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 29. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 48. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 51. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 31. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 57. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 34. Friday Sunny, with a high near 58. NWS took rain chances completely out of my forecast in Winston and took my 50% chance of snow showers out of my Stuart VA forecast at the farm. Says sunny on Monday now. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 19 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: NWS took rain chances completely out of my forecast in Winston and took my 50% chance of snow showers out of my Stuart VA forecast at the farm. Says sunny on Monday now. Next! They removed it from the forecast, but GSP has a pretty good discussion about it this morning. The 12z suite today will be telling. If today's trends are not in our favor, it may be time to let this one go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 It looks like this is going to be the second time that the GFS is more correct with respect to being less phase happy compared to the Euro and CMC. It never bought the idea of phasing the waves dropping down from the northern stream. It was also more correct with the previous storm that cut to the eastern Lakes and hit northern Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Off topic, but anyone heard from Mack since he moved to IA and should already have at least 2 good snows under his belt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, griteater said: It looks like this is going to be the second time that the GFS is more correct with respect to being less phase happy compared to the Euro and CMC. It never bought the idea of phasing the waves dropping down from the northern stream. It was also more correct with the previous storm that cut to the eastern Lakes and hit northern Ohio. The GFS has been impressive for the past year with modeling the mid range and storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Well that chance didn't take long to vaporize for Mon night/Tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 25 minutes ago, eyewall said: Well that chance didn't take long to vaporize for Mon night/Tue 18Z runs pulled a Lee Corso. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 18Z runs pulled a Lee Corso. After that it is a cutter and warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Just now, eyewall said: After that it is a cutter and warmth. The 18Z runs actually give some snow lovers hope for the Monday Tuesday event. Backside action for E Nc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Cmc, gfs, gfs para, nam showing some love to Central/Northern Va for Mondays system. Nothing that really sticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 If anyone is getting golf clubs for Christmas, you’ll really love the temp outlook for the holiday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 11:57 AM, kvegas-wx said: Off topic, but anyone heard from Mack since he moved to IA and should already have at least 2 good snows under his belt? Yeah, he's over on the other forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 The pattern goes to crap through the holidays after today unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 The long-range GFS doesn't look bad for Christmas week. Showing some above normal temps here and there but nothing crazy... Looks like a surge of cold air toward 12/21-12/23 time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 30 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: The long-range GFS doesn't look bad for Christmas week. Showing some above normal temps here and there but nothing crazy... Looks like a surge of cold air toward 12/21-12/23 time period. Yeah, I see a somewhat colder pattern re-emerging after this warmer spurt coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/6/2020 at 11:50 AM, BooneWX said: If anyone is getting golf clubs for Christmas, you’ll really love the temp outlook for the holiday. I booked a late morning tee time for this Thursday. I’m trying to use reverse psychology in Old Man Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 The cut off low the euro spit out looks a bit interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 First GFS weenie run clown map in QUITE some time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 I'm just gonna allow myself to enjoy this for a bit before I go back to reality 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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