Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Honestly, all we can hope for at this point is some cold. If the modeled cold verifies over the next couple of weeks we'll have a shot or two. We all know that many of our events aren't modeled a week or two in advance, and often show up within just 2-4 days. Give me the cold and I'll take my chances, especially this late in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 ICON has the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: ICON has the storm. Now we’re getting desperate, lol! But really, it’s a 2-8-20 redux! Looks very cold too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 #sunanglecancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 9 minutes ago, burrel2 said: ICON has the storm. There will have to be some major changes on the h5 level to even become favorable. Icon for example. The two SW need a trajectory from Montana to Tx. Not Montana to LA, Ms, Al. It's got dig more South West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Now we’re getting desperate, lol! But really, it’s a 2-8-20 redux! Looks very cold too Yeah, temps won’t be a problem with this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Time is rapidly running out for anyone outside the mountains. The chance for snow drastically decreases as we head into March outside the mountains. Especially with the way high latitude blocking looks. Its a wonder we have seen anything at all with a plus plus AO and NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 18 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Time is rapidly running out for anyone outside the mountains. The chance for snow drastically decreases as we head into March outside the mountains. Especially with the way high latitude blocking looks. Its a wonder we have seen anything at all with a plus plus AO and NAO. Saturday still looks interesting on 18z. Looks like something tries to pop off the coast. Very cold atmosphere ! 540 0 degree line, S of Jacksonville FL, and low does pop off the Carolinas, hmm! MYB might end up with more snow than the mountains!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Saturday still looks interesting on 18z. Looks like something tries to pop off the coast. Very cold atmosphere ! 540 0 degree line, S of Jacksonville FL, and low does pop off the Carolinas, hmm! MYB might end up with more snow than the mountains!? Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Good luck. Our biggest snows come in March, ask Brick 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 I don't think next weekend is going to amount to anything. Just doesn't dig far enough west for us but it could change. Maybe some upslope in the mountains but thats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On second thought the NAM might have it amped up when it gets in range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Met1985 said: Time is rapidly running out for anyone outside the mountains. The chance for snow drastically decreases as we head into March outside the mountains. Especially with the way high latitude blocking looks. Its a wonder we have seen anything at all with a plus plus AO and NAO. I’ve seen snow thrice in February with a record AO! Icon says #4 is on the way! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 2 hours ago, WarmNose said: I’ve seen snow thrice in February with a record AO! Icon says #4 is on the way! I will gladly take some extra snow, but I am really rooting for our comrades in the MA to score something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 53 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I will gladly take some extra snow, but I am really rooting for our comrades in the MA to score something. Blasphemy 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: I will gladly take some extra snow, but I am really rooting for our comrades in the MA to score something. Why? It’s kind of awesome that Wilmington has had more snow than DCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Don't throw in the towel folks! We still have a good 20-30 days where anything could happen. I think we have one more "winter storm" as well as a surprise like the N.Ga/Upstate event from a few weeks back!! Let's stay optimistic!!! :-) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 GFS is trying for March 1st 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Day 6 and 7 00z Euro is interesting from a pattern standpoint. The strong cut off over new England would promote phasing and a low closer to the coast for the trailing PJ wave. Something to monitor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Ukie similar as well..... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 For next weekend, each run of the GFS Ensemble spits out a few members with a decent storm. We've had some storms work out in the past with this type of setup, but the wave has to drop into the trough just right. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 What is a good site to look at the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 hour ago, griteater said: For next weekend, each run of the GFS Ensemble spits out a few members with a decent storm. We've had some storms work out in the past with this type of setup, but the wave has to drop into the trough just right. We’ve been threading the needle since 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Extreme NEGA said: What is a good site to look at the ensembles? See the GEFS tab here: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ For GEFS at 500mb, see: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_18z/ensloopwide.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Friday night into Saturday looks like a small snow event for north GA. Limited moisture but we should see some flakes flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 06z GFS closes off a low(weak) over southern Mississippi on Saturday morning which gives a little blue-radar stuff to northern parts of Alabama. Fizzles as it reaches Georgia as the low is squashed. 00z did as well, but just a little further north before squashing as well. Neither Euro or CMC have shown this feature. Curious to see if 12z has it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Based on the GFS and Euro runs early this morning, the March 4th system would be more cutter like leaving us warm and facing more a severe weather threat than any kind of wintry precip. After that the pattern goes to crap once again. Prior to this, there are a few weak waves that die as they cross the NC mountains during the brief cold shot. The mountains may pick up a couple of light snow events with those disturbances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 48 minutes ago, eyewall said: Based on the GFS and Euro runs early this morning, the March 4th system would be more cutter like leaving us warm and facing more a severe weather threat than any kind of wintry precip. After that the pattern goes to crap once again. Prior to this, there are a few weak waves that die as they cross the NC mountains during the brief cold shot. The mountains may pick up a couple of light snow events with those disturbances. I’d be good with that. Bring on the warmer days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 2 hours ago, eyewall said: Based on the GFS and Euro runs early this morning, the March 4th system would be more cutter like leaving us warm and facing more a severe weather threat than any kind of wintry precip. After that the pattern goes to crap once again. Prior to this, there are a few weak waves that die as they cross the NC mountains during the brief cold shot. The mountains may pick up a couple of light snow events with those disturbances. Winter was over 3 months ago! I’m pretty happy with how winter turned out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 RAH this afternoon ~ 2/24 pair of strong shortwaves rotating through the base of the long wave trough; one Friday, followed by a stronger, secondary wave on Saturday, will need to be monitored for the potential for some very light precip amounts across the area. Given the modified cP airmass that will be in place, favorable nocturnal timing could allow for some very light/trace amounts of frozen precip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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