BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Nice thing is that the precip on the northern part of the shield isn't meager Almost .4 at FLO through 84 and it's still going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Amen to that. Right now, I need a 100 mile shift northwest. We all know how this is most likely going to go. Would love to see it shift north, but I dont know if it can or will... the way things have been seeming to mostly stay suppressed so far with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 12km NAM Simulated Radar at hr84 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, griteater said: 12km NAM Simulated Radar at hr84 Great look at 84 on the NAM. Little more interaction and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 The NAM really likes the idea of crashing temperatures in areas of steady precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, griteater said: The NAM really likes the idea of crashing temperatures in areas of steady precip Globals have been showing that. Wherever it shows up, it cools off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 For those discounting NAM, do so at your own peril. Many times I’ve seen it out perform globals on SE winter storms. Feb 2014 is just one example. While European and others were calling for a snow apocalypse, NAM was screaming “the profiles are gong to be too warm for many”. It was exactly right. I am hoping it is right this time by forecasting the opposite. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 H5 level is different as well. Further east with the SW vs 6z. Need to break ties with NS and consolidate more. It being stretched out and still attached to the NS trof is causing it to be suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: For those discounting NAM, do so at your own peril. Many times I’ve seen it out perform globals on SE winter storms. Feb 2014 is just one example. While European and others were calling for a snow apocalypse, NAM was screaming “the profiles are gong to be too warm for many”. It was exactly right. I am hoping it is right this time by forecasting the opposite. And to add that it is still not on shore currently. Also, all the normal caveats imply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, griteater said: The NAM really likes the idea of crashing temperatures in areas of steady precip We just need to move that steady precip north a 100 miles. Such a flat flow, what do we need to look for at H5 to push more moisture north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I really like the odds of a nice, west-east oriented area of overrunning snow with this system. The setup is ripe for that, assuming we get decent precip rates. The air aloft is plenty cold for snow, and only gets colder as the event unfolds. The question is will the band with the right balance of cold air/ precipitation overlap to generate snow be in northern SC, southeastern NC, further north, or will precip remain too light to really generate any accumulating snow in most places. Too soon to know. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, msuwx said: I really like the odds of a nice, west-east oriented area of overrunning snow with this system. The setup is ripe for that, assuming we get decent precip rates. The air aloft is plenty cold for snow, and only gets colder as the event unfolds. The question is will the band with the right balance of cold air/ precipitation overlap to generate snow be in northern SC, southeastern NC, further north, or will precip remain too light to really generate any accumulating snow in most places. Too soon to know. Thanks Matt. And with this, we wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, FLweather said: H5 level is different as well. Further east with the SW vs 6z. Need to break ties with NS and consolidate more. It being stretched out and still attached to the NS trof is causing it to be suppressed. It's a slider. That's what sliders do. Without blocking, it's what we have to work with. EDIT: A slider gave mby the most snow I've ever had here......almost 9" of white gold 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: It's a slider. That's what sliders do. Without blocking, it's what we have to work with. EDIT: A slider gave mby the most snow I've ever had here......almost 9" of white gold I remember that slider! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: We just need to move that steady precip north a 100 miles. Such a flat flow, what do we need to look for at H5 to push more moisture north? The NAM looks really good here out west with the main northern stream wave dropping down thru the Great Basin-Utah-Colorado...Pacific shortwave that undercuts the western ridge tracks out ahead of the northern stream wave as it tracks from southern California into Kansas...energy/weak waviness in the subtropical jet moves from Baja to the ArkLaTex to the Carolinas. The suppressing feature is the shortwave that drops down thru the Great Lakes - so that's one to watch for the northern extent of precip. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 ICON is gonna be a decent hit for the triangle and points north and east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I remember that slider! Best storm ever for mby I knew whatever fell would be snow, it was just a matter of how much would fall. Ratios were off the chart. There wasn't much precip with it being around .30ish and it all melted by the afternoon, but it was awesome while it lasted. This reminds me a little of that Feb day in '14, only a much larger area is in play. If anything, this has been fun to watch unfold and those who were throwing in the towel a few days ago should learn from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: Best storm ever for mby I knew whatever fell would be snow, it was just a matter of how much would fall. Ratios were off the chart. There wasn't much precip with it being around .30ish and it all melted by the afternoon, but it was awesome while it lasted. This reminds me a little of that Feb day in '14, only a much larger area is in play. If anything, this has been fun to watch unfold and those who were throwing in the towel a few days ago should learn from this Columbia was in a panic that day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 12km NAM Simulated Radar at hr84That band across the SC midlands mix or ice?Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 ICON is a big hit for southern VA and northern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: That band across the SC midlands mix or ice? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said: After scolding myself for even considering the NAM in lala land, I absolutely agree that it looks pretty darn good. I can’t bring myself to dismiss it because it’s handled this fast flow pretty well in the short range. The NAM never swayed and nailed it here in Upstate SC and N GA on 2-8 and the week before that when we had a surprise snow for 3 or 4 hours here and 3 to 4 inches in the Cashiers NC area. Other models eventually caught on but, it was the NAM leading the way. Agree in there is no way I would dismiss the NAM at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 GFS trended further north, but temps are still an issue. Very similar to ECMWF. Light snow in ENC, but that is about it. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 GFS still strung out, temps being the main issue Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 As we've covered already today, the temps arent an issue where precip falls. The GFS doesnt have precip so evaporational cooling does not occur. This isnt a column where we're at 8c at the 925 level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 31 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: That band across the SC midlands mix or ice? Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk This type of setup pretty well gonna be 3 things. Rain, snow or s/s mix. No possibility of zr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 27 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: As we've covered already today, the temps arent an issue where precip falls. The GFS doesnt have precip so evaporational cooling does not occur. This isnt a column where we're at 8c at the 925 level. Agreed if you're only talking about seeing snow fall. For accumulations, temps are always an issue. Take the 2.8 system for example. Many areas outside of North Georgia and Oconee and Pickens counties saw snow fall with no mixing, but very minimal accumulations. Mid and upper levels were excellent so it stayed snow but temps at the ground never fully cooled below the 32-34 range and really cut into accumulations. With a system like this where precip looks to be meager at best, wasting any precip waiting for temps to drop that extra degree will significantly cut into snow accumulations. I agree the atmosphere is not an issue but the fact is the baseline temps are going to rely on evaporative cooling and rates to reach a point where accumulations are possible. It's not going to start snowing at 32 degrees and temps fall from there. I'm not going to be the "ground temp" and "sun angle" guy, but those in the upstate and charlotte areas might have something to say about that from the last system as the only efficient accumulations occurred at night or early morning (I know that's also when precip peaked with that system, but it does matter). That being said, the focus continues to be on pushing more moisture further north and letting the temp battle play out from there. That has been the limiting factor with this setup and continues to be so. The trends have been positive today from that angle. I know the take the cold first then worry about moisture approach, but to the previous post's point, cold is not an issue for it to snow with this system. It only will become an issue if we get to the stage of talking accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Canadian is back to being more suppressed 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Also, the 12Z CMC cut back the northern extent of the precip area somewhat but otherwise remained mostly unchanged from 00Z. Still same setup and general idea. Not really sure why it scaled the precip back as much as the vort max and formulative LP appeared to be a hair further north than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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