BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, ForsythWx said: ICON looking interesting for the first time in days Knocking on Wake Counties door. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Is that an LP developing offshore as it exits the region though or is it a system moving through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 I may just be wish casting but I swear the NAM looks pretty great at the end of its run. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Happy hour GFS looks like it’s setting up to be a good run with how it looks out west 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: I may just be wish casting but I swear the NAM looks pretty great at the end of its run. Surface temps in the region as much as 6+ degrees colder than the GFS at 06z Thursday in some places. 700mbar winds are WSW throughout the whole region and the vort is consolidated and digging, with some fairly potent energy already streaming in along the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 OK I failed on that one. Precip is light on the GFS - stayed more suppressed than I thought it would 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Just now, griteater said: OK I failed on that one. Precip is light on the GFS - stayed more suppressed than I thought it would I thought it would have been a better run just looking at H5 and H7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Just now, griteater said: OK I failed on that one. Precip is light on the GFS - stayed more suppressed than I thought it would Suppressed for everyone or just NC? Does it give north ga any love at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 minute ago, griteater said: OK I failed on that one. Precip is light on the GFS - stayed more suppressed than I thought it would Too bad because we have enough cold air for a snow event for many areas. I live in the north but we all cant win this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, griteater said: OK I failed on that one. Precip is light on the GFS - stayed more suppressed than I thought it would Date: 102 hour AVN valid 0Z FRI 21 FEB 20 Station: 36.02,-79.02 Latitude: 36.02 Longitude: -79.02 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1014 137 4.8 -0.4 69 5.1 2.6 93 4 276.8 277.4 275.0 286.9 3.66 1 1000 249 4.4 -1.7 64 6.1 1.9 93 9 277.6 278.1 275.0 286.9 3.37 2 950 664 0.7 -3.5 73 4.2 -0.9 82 10 277.9 278.4 274.9 286.6 3.10 3 900 1096 -2.1 -6.2 74 4.1 -3.6 17 10 279.3 279.8 275.0 286.8 2.67 4 850 1548 -4.6 -9.3 69 4.7 -6.1 344 18 281.4 281.7 275.5 287.7 2.22 5 800 2022 -8.5 -11.0 82 2.5 -9.2 331 24 282.1 282.5 275.6 288.1 2.06 6 750 2521 -9.2 -11.2 86 1.9 -9.8 311 30 286.6 286.9 278.1 292.9 2.17 7 700 3056 -8.2 -9.8 88 1.6 -8.7 282 36 293.4 293.9 281.8 301.2 2.60 8 650 3631 -9.7 -10.7 93 1.0 -10.1 266 42 298.0 298.4 283.7 305.9 2.60 9 600 4246 -12.3 -12.8 97 0.4 -12.5 259 48 301.8 302.3 285.1 309.3 2.39 10 550 4906 -16.0 -16.0 100 0.0 -16.0 255 54 305.1 305.5 285.8 311.5 1.99 11 500 5618 -20.6 -21.3 94 0.7 -20.8 254 62 307.9 308.1 286.2 312.4 1.39 12 450 6387 -25.7 -29.4 71 3.7 -26.3 260 74 310.9 311.1 286.5 313.5 0.75 13 400 7235 -28.8 -44.5 21 15.7 -30.3 260 98 317.5 317.6 288.2 318.2 0.18 14 350 8176 -36.2 -48.0 29 11.8 -37.0 260 104 319.9 320.0 288.9 320.5 0.14 15 300 9228 -43.1 -55.9 23 12.8 -43.6 264 116 324.6 324.6 290.2 324.8 0.07 16 250 10443 -47.2 -62.8 15 15.6 -47.7 267 138 335.9 335.9 293.3 336.0 0.03 17 200 11902 -52.8 -68.7 13 16.0 -53.1 271 153 349.2 349.2 296.5 349.3 0.02 18 150 13729 -59.0 -77.7 7 18.7 -59.2 274 137 368.5 368.5 300.3 368.5 0.01 19 100 16248 -61.7 -83.3 4 21.6 -62.0 275 85 408.5 408.5 306.3 408.5 0.00 It's close enough if we can just get precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Suppressed for everyone or just NC? Does it give north ga any love at all? Flurries to a light dusting at best for N Ga 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 It really did look better at the beginning at H5. Wonder what went wrong? Looks like it may have did what the WPC was talking about with the UKMET trying to rotate the pacific shortwave underneath the northern stream one which they alluded to likely being too fast/strong. Just speculation though, someone with more knowledge would probably know for sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Suppressed for everyone or just NC? Does it give north ga any love at all? Flizzard fest for you. The moisture just wasn’t there. For whatever reason I’m not in a good area to look at maps on my phone at the moment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Timing differences between the GFS and NAM are fairly significant. NAM holds the vort back a bit more and the mid/upper level wind field over the SE is much more friendly for moisture transport. 850's still above freezing but they are crashing with surface temps in the region in the 36-40 range with still 6hrs of darkness left. I know it's the NAM at range but it definitely earned some respect with last weekends event here in my book. It led the way from the minute it came into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 RAH - Sunday afternoon update. By Thursday morning, we'll see moist WSW flow aloft beginning to overrun the cold low level airmass advecting into NC, thus many of the models have been suggesting some light precip developing to our SW and skirting at least our southern and southeast zones during the daytime and evening Thursday. It's worth noting that the operational ECWMF has been shifting the precip shield further and further south with recent runs (given its further southward progression of the aforementioned cold front). That said, if the GFS and Canadian verify, which suggest that precip will fall farther north than what the ECMWF shows, forecast soundings from these models suggest an opportunity for some wet snowflakes to mix in with the otherwise light rain over the south and southeast portions of our CWA. Clearly there is a great deal of uncertainty with this part of the forecast, so the best advice now is to stay tuned to future forecasts for updates, but right now we are not forecasting anything that would lead to substantial weather impacts for central NC later this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 LOL @ NAM ! It looks juicy and has the high in the plains at 1050, but shows no snow at the end of its run, verbatim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Pretty stormy just west of Daytona... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, Isopycnic said: Pretty stormy just west of Daytona... Called till Monday at 4 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Starting to think maybe my snow drought will end Thur night.....been awhile since I we had a decent long duration overrunning type event around here.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Precip on the 18z EPS Mean bumped north. It seems to keep wobbling back and forth each run (north/south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, griteater said: Precip on the 18z EPS Mean bumped north. It seems to keep wobbling back and forth each run (north/south) How’s the temps look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: How’s the temps look? 850mb zero degree line works south from Charlotte at 12z Thu to Columbia at 03z Fri as precip on the mean moves thru 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, griteater said: Precip on the 18z EPS Mean bumped north. It seems to keep wobbling back and forth each run (north/south) Noticed on the individual members that a few big time snow totals showed up also. I don't think I've seen much of that on the EPS the last few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 To my untrained eye I thought the nam looked good at the end. Holding back just enough and moisture looks robost 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 NAM trended colder each of the last 3 runs for 0z Thursday (which is key). Below is 12z hr84, 18z hr78, and the latest 0z hr72.Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: NAM trended colder each of the last 3 runs for 0z Thursday (which is key). Below is 12z hr84, 18z hr78, and the latest 0z hr72. Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk What am I missing? 18z looked colder than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 39 minutes ago, WarmNose said: What am I missing? 18z looked colder than 00z It only trended colder for eastern NC. If you consider 1day a trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 This is the 850mb temps, again using 12z, 18z, 0z for 0z ThursdaySent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 47 minutes ago, Grayman said: To my untrained eye I thought the nam looked good at the end. Holding back just enough and moisture looks robost I'd say your eyes are trained. NAM looks good with precip. As precip surges into Arkansas, I'd say it probably begins to move more west to east from there based on the height pattern. Here's the sounding at Charlotte at hr84 on the NAM. Note the wet bulb (blue line in between the red and green lines) is below freezing except for a very shallow warm layer at the surface, and temp profiles are cooling thru the column as time goes on (dewpoint is dropping over time for example). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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