UpstateSCGamecock Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Discussion from GSP .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...As of 315 am Sunday: The medium range will begin with chilly/dryinghigh pressure building south through the forecast in the wake of theincreasingly E/W oriented frontal zone. Global guidance suggests weare by no means out of the woods regarding the potential forresurgent moisture into the cool air mass in the Wed night/Thu timeframe, as the 00Z GFS now redevelops precip (albeit primarily a verycold rain) across roughly the southern half of the area Thu morning.While the ECMWF remains considerably drier than the GFS, itnevertheless is trending in a wetter direction, with qpf responsenow depicted into the southern half of the forecast area Thumorning. Needless to say, small pops are retained in the forecastthrough the day Thursday, with mainly a mountain snow/Piedmont rainforecast, although the chance of wintry weather developing east ofthe mtns is certainly there if post-frontal precip does indeeddevelop. The remainder of the medium range looks dry and colder thannormal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 6z suites on the GEFS, inside 5 days guys let's bring this home!Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherzim Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Dale Gilbert says nothing for Thursday Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 21 minutes ago, Weatherzim said: Dale Gilbert says nothing for Thursday Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk I believe that is the conservative coming out which is always the case. So much can change between now and then how can you possibly make that bold of a prediction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, Weatherzim said: Between him and CJ I wonder how they co-exist they are dem and republic of weather always polar opposites Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Right, we've seen the weather for these type storms change overnight. From not in our favor to in our favor, just have to watch the trends and say there is a possibility for Thursday that the ingredients are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Well the nam looks interesting to say the least. Trough dropping through the west looks beautiful 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 23 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Well the nam looks interesting to say the least. Trough dropping through the west looks beautiful The h5 level definitely more concentrated and digging more over AZ/NM vs the strung out of the gfs. Good signs but still too far out of range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckfever2 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 36 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Well the nam looks interesting to say the least. Trough dropping through the west looks beautiful Can you post pic ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 46 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Well the nam looks interesting to say the least. Trough dropping through the west looks beautiful So much that it has a mid-atlantic hit look to it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, griteater said: So much that it has a mid-atlantic hit look to it Don’t think I buy that. Looks like it’s going to be slower to arrive on the nam which should help letting the cold air filter in. Hard to say for sure though. icon is in.... made a massive shift north with precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, Buckfever2 said: Can you post pic ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Don’t think I buy that. Looks like it’s going to be slower to arrive on the nam which should help letting the cold air filter in. Hard to say for sure though. The joys of extrapolation ha. It looked great with the storm and slower to gather out west which is good like you mentioned...but it looked like the southward push of cold air was about maxed out based on the height pattern over the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, FLweather said: 1047 dropping into the heart of the country and we’ve got rain breaking out in Arkansas. That hurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Temps are going to be an issue after all. Only cold enough for snow in the mountains. GFS shows more moisture but much warmer than previously thought. Just can't win for trying this winter. Guessing UKMET is similar. All we need is the CMC and ECMWF to confirm it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, griteater said: The joys of extrapolation ha. It looked great with the storm and slower to gather out west which is good like you mentioned...but it looked like the southward push of cold air was about maxed out based on the height pattern over the southeast Rain? Hard to fathom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Temps are going to be an issue after all. Only cold enough for snow in the mountains. GFS shows more moisture but much warmer than previously thought. Just can't win for trying this winter. Guessing UKMET is similar. All we need is the CMC and ECMWF to confirm it. It is clearly snowing across ENC. If you can’t accurately depict what’s happening then maybe think about not spreading misinformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Looks like 540 line is further S on the 12z! Baby steps! A good bit wetter/more N push , than 6z! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 CMC looks warmer out to 72 hours. Also, much more moisture on Wednesday. Hmmm. Speeding up moisture arrival, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Most concerning trend of late to me is the 850s look a lot warmer than they did a day or two ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Eastern NC snowstorm on the Canadian at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 The Canadian is much cooler than the gfs and would be a nice hit for parts of upstate and a big hit for coastal NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 minute ago, oconeexman said: The Canadian is much cooler than the gfs and would be a nice hit for parts of upstate and a big hit for coastal NC! Almost feels like we moved back 3 days with that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Hmmm, me likey the CMC. Good trend north and colder. More believable than the GFS. Now we wait for the king. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 850s stayed about the same from 6z, 700mb temps actually went below Savannah this run, and the 2m temps were a couple ticks colder (CLT went from 46 at 6z run to 39 at 12z run). When ensembles get to range we will see...Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, oconeexman said: The Canadian is much cooler than the gfs and would be a nice hit for parts of upstate and a big hit for coastal NC! Isn’t the CMC usually the coldest model? I think it is during CAD events? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Anyone have GEFS members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Boom, moisture slightly later (overnight Thurs/Fri)Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Both the CMC and 12Z GFS has a little pocket of snow left over the Upstate and mountains as all the moisture is on the coast with the low! Hmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 CMC and Nam look pretty dam close at 84hrs. (500mb map) Right now I'd take those 2 and hopefully get the King on board! I'll let the pros explain it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 UKMET is still suppressed 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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