buckeyefan1 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 29 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 18Z Euro is back to the party. The way every system has over performed here this year I don’t see any reason why this one would be any different. Come on.....you can do better than this. This "back to the party" doesn't explain anything about what you are looking at.Is Dr No drinking the hard stuff? 27 minutes ago, CaryWx said: yes 18z was better. will be interesting to see the 0z Explain better. You can do better than this. More moisture north, colder temps with precip falling. More interaction after the sw drops into the US further west that the previous run. Adding just a little substance explains a lot and it's why this is called the discussion thread. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 minute ago, griteater said: Trend on last 3 runs of the Euro Ensemble Mean for Thursday aftn. More precip to the north and warmer The 850 line seems to set up shop on 85 which would be climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: Come on.....you can do better than this. This "back to the party" doesn't explain anything about what you are looking at.Is Dr No drinking the hard stuff? Explain better. You can do better than this. More moisture north, colder temps with precip falling. More interaction after the sw drops into the US further west that the previous run. Adding just a little substance explains a lot and it's why this is called the discussion thread. More validation in the form of continuity. A positive TREND Constructively, can you lose the big pic in your signature by any chance? It really hassles with the thread view? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 I don't have access to EURO but based on GFS, temperatures look like a big factor, particularly surface temperatures based on soundings I looked at on GFS and model output. In addition, NWS RAH is forecasting a high of 46 on Thursday and 42 on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 The QPF and snow total noticeably ticked up on the ensemble mean also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, griteater said: Trend on last 3 runs of the Euro Ensemble Mean for Thursday aftn. More precip to the north and warmer What does the 18z EPS Mean show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: More validation in the form of continuity. A positive TREND Constructively, can you lose the big pic in your signature by any chance? It really hassles with the thread view? That wasn't so hard now was it You can turn off signatures in your settings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: What does the 18z EPS Mean show? 18z Euro Ens Members Snowfall below...the mean snowfall is light - 0.1 to 1.5 inches from Northern SC thru VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Trend on last 3 runs of the Euro Ensemble Mean for Thursday aftn. More precip to the north and warmer"And warmer"Everybody better hop in the "rates will overcome" boat, because that is going to be a big issue unless the system slows by 24 hours to allow colder air to sink in.Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: The QPF and snow total noticeably ticked up on the ensemble mean also. 5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I don't have access to EURO but based on GFS, temperatures look like a big factor, particularly surface temperatures based on soundings I looked at on GFS and model output. In addition, NWS RAH is forecasting a high of 46 on Thursday and 42 on Friday. That was probably a forecast without precip. More or any precip= colder temps I must say, I don’t like the orientation of the high on the Euro, and no wedging!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Grit posted it earlier, scroll up Think he meant the snowfall from the mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 I grabbed these for the upcoming event.. @DownEast Might be the Big Winner up His way.. We will, In SENC, (as always) have to get the great rates in order to overcome BL/warmnose Issues, get some sloppy white goodness.. (I have this tune in My head,, Slip, slip sliding away?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, griteater said: 18z Euro Ens Members Snowfall below...the mean snowfall is light - 0.1 to 1.5 inches from Northern SC thru VA That's encouraging! Hopefully 0z continues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 It's definitely a bit warmer but 850's are still below freezing across most of the region all day Thursday. Even on the mean, the surface temps reflect the precip being further north driving the temps down in the middle of the day Thursday. 18z 1PM Temps 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 With regard to precip, as others have alluded to, we need the northern stream shortwave to drop down farther to the west. We need it to drop from Montana down thru the spine of the Rockies as opposed to dropping down east of the Rockies. This improves the flow over the southeast for moisture return...specifically, it opens the door for more interaction with subtle subtropical waves that can inject moisture from Baja>Texas>Carolinas and VA. Here's the shift west with the wave shown in this loop of the last 2 runs of the Euro Control. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 With regard to precip, as others have alluded to, we need the northern stream shortwave to drop down farther to the west. We need it to drop from Montana down thru the spine of the Rockies as opposed to dropping down east of the Rockies. This improves the flow over the southeast for moisture return...specifically, it opens the door for more interaction with subtle subtropical waves that can inject moisture from Baja>Texas>Carolinas and VA. Here's the shift west with the wave shown in this loop of the last 2 runs of the Euro Control.Pretty much this. With a 1040 parent high I think this is the pre-eminent feature to pay attention to in model runs going forward. I don’t think temps will be *that* much of an issue but I’m also ready to eat crow on that statement given this is still below the mason Dixon line. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 54 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: "And warmer" Everybody better hop in the "rates will overcome" boat, because that is going to be a big issue unless the system slows by 24 hours to allow colder air to sink in. 53 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That was probably a forecast without precip. More or any precip= colder temps I must say, I don’t like the orientation of the high on the Euro, and no wedging!? 6 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Pretty much this. With a 1040 parent high I think this is the pre-eminent feature to pay attention to in model runs going forward. I don’t think temps will be *that* much of an issue but I’m also ready to eat crow on that statement given this is still below the mason Dixon line. I'm torn on temperatures for the folks in South Carolina and southern North Carolina. While we don't have classic cold air damming, the surface high is a monster with northeast winds at the surface as the potential precip approaches, originating from a source region that is very cold (-12 to -28 C at 850mb). It's an excellent setup. Problem is, the 588 height line is in central Florida with 591 in the western Caribbean (strong subtropical ridge). Also, the cold air doesn't move in boldly behind the early week cold front like it did behind the pre-storm cold front for the recent snow in GA/SC. Having said all of that, I suspect that when the NAM comes into range, it will be a bit colder than the globals, with a better ability to resolve the low level arctic sourced air. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 It's early but the 00z icon is dropping our energy way farther west than it's previous run. Probably a good sign for tonight's 00z suite. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Yet another jump north on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Fayetteville went from 0.02 at 12z to 0.35 at 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Needless to say, I’d like to see the OP Euro look like the control run from 18z to start seriously considering this thing. I think the trends have been really positive for most of North Carolina tonight, however. I still think you want to be north of 40 or 49 adjacent for the best from this event, however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 The way things are modeled right now, could this end up just being a thin strip of snow where the best rates and cold 850's overlap but rain on either side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Just now, SnowDawg said: The way things are modeled right now, could this end up just being a thin strip of snow where the best rates and cold 850's overlap but rain on either side? I could see that, for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Not horrible for north Georgia. Just need slightly cooler uppers and we are in business down here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 GEFS came back to life a bit from earlier todaySent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 23 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: GEFS came back to life a bit from earlier today It bumped NW with overall QPF though. Good move tonight with precip on GFS and GEFS UKMet and CMC were both suppressed to the south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 The way things are modeled right now, could this end up just being a thin strip of snow where the best rates and cold 850's overlap but rain on either side? While this is on the table I recommend fast forwarding a couple of days before we analyze exactly *what* the snow corridor will look like 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 ECMWF is running. Anyone have an updated on it? Was it similar to 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 18 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: ECMWF is running. Anyone have an updated on it? Was it similar to 18z? It's much improved over the 12z run but ultimately still suppressed for the most part. It looks very similar to the CMC. The 18z run was from the EPS which I don't think has started yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 EPS control and mean stepped back from the big run at 18z but are still drastically improved from 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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