griteater Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 26 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The ICON remains suppressed GFS and UKMet also moved to the suppressed camp with the wave diving down too far to the east....Euro takes the lead in the clubhouse for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveRDU Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Still an eternity between now and game time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Futurecast on WYFF4, has a very snowy solution here, starting at 6AM Thursday! It nailed Saturday’s event! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 It's amazing how some of y'all still fluctuate run to run whether good or bad. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Canadian still playing along, albeit over a much smaller geographical area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Don't know if anyone mentioned it or not but UKMET joined the suppressed camp also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Euro moved back closer to a good solution by slowing down the NS energy, but still suppressed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Overnight runs stuck a fork in this system. EURO has a heck of a coastal storm at the end of the run. Too bad the freezing line is in Canada... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Well they followed th euro it looks like. Let's hope the euro comes back by tomorrow or monday and they all come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 I’m asking one more time for everyone to keep the one liners and whining in the banter thread. Also, as asked repeatedly, do not mention any other board or you will also find yourself on the outside looking in. I’ve honestly had it with the trolling of the NWS, Mets and others that know more than most people here. I don’t care if you’ve been here 20 years like I have or a newbie of 20 minutes. You will find yourself gone. This place has standards and it’s time you all up your game. If anyone has any issues, message me. Otherwise step it up. That is all....now back to actual weather discussions. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Still up in the Air.. 12Z is running lets see what it brings.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 30 minutes ago, SENC said: Still up in the Air.. 12Z is running lets see what it brings.. Yeah, it’s not too far S, to not shift back N! We will see. 12z looks like it will be more robust, let’s see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 N shift, temps an issue now! 12z, so many ways to lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Just now, mackerel_sky said: N shift, temps an issue now! 12z, so many ways to lose. bl temps 2 days ago showed too warm. You don’t have any thermal profiles to show why you’re saying this. I’m not playing with you. Up your game or go sit in the banter thread 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: bl temps 2 days ago showed too warm. You don’t have any thermal profiles to show why you’re saying this. I’m not playing with you. Up your game or go sit in the banter thread I was just looking at the model run, verbatim. Can’t get pics to post. It’s all rain, and 540 line is N of any precip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: I was just looking at the model run, verbatim. Can’t get pics to post. It’s all rain, and 540 line is N of any precip You know exactly how you’re posting and it isn’t to explain what you are looking at. I’m not replying any further, nor am I going to warn you verbally any longer. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Temps are not an issue, there just isn't any precip falling through the cold upper level air to help drive the boundary temps down. Suppression is still the issue, with the NS moving through too fast. Mid level winds turn WNW by 7 AM Thursday and shutoff moisture transport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Well it was fun while it lasted. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: Well it was fun while it lasted. Why? Another one liner without any reasoning. Come on. You absolutely know better. The GFS actually took a small step towards what it once had and yet you still post this.....sigh. Belongs in banter. Step up your game too. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Why? Another one liner without any reasoning. Come on. You absolutely know better. The GFS actually took a small step towards what it once had and yet you still post this.....sigh. Belongs in banter. Step up your game too. To be fair to eyewall, the CMC took a step toward even more suppression. The CMC has been more accurate than the GFS lately. Could things change? Sure, but right now, it is like being down 30 points at half time in a college basketball game. This winter has not shown the ability to make a comeback in a game like that. All the models are suppressed and seem to be fixating on that rather than bouncing back and forth. They are locked in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: To be fair to eyewall, the CMC took a step toward even more suppression. The CMC has been more accurate than the GFS lately. Could things change? Sure, but right now, it is like being down 30 points at half time in a college basketball game. This winter has not shown a chance to make a comeback in a game like that. All the models are suppressed and seem to be fixating on that rather than bouncing back and forth. They are locked in. He knows how to word throwing in the towel for himself much better than a one line whining post. You didn’t have any issues wording your explanation. Nobody else should either. I’m not asking for much. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Why? Another one liner without any reasoning. Come on. You absolutely know better. The GFS actually took a small step towards what it once had and yet you still post this.....sigh. Belongs in banter. Step up your game too. I know I am just expressing frustration. Anyway if you want a little more it is obviously a very suppressed run with the strong high nosing south and confluence in the upper levels. There just isn't the amplification to unleash a power house low nor the strong shortwave energy. Your looking at some weak disturbances feeding off strong out vorticity to the south of the confluence that would result in a weak "southern slider". That is what this run shows. Is it a hair better, I suppose, but nowhere close to anything substantial on 12z op run. Additional note: There is a better looking vort max that tries to makes it way into the picture on Fri but it would spawn a low too far off to the east well off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Just now, eyewall said: I know I am just expressing frustration. Anyway if you want a little more it is obviously a very suppressed run with the strong high nosing south and confluence in the upper levels. There just isn't the amplification to unleash a power house low nor the strong shortwave energy. Your looking at some weak disturbances feeding off strong out vorticity to the south of the confluence that would result in a weak "southern slider". That is what this run shows. Is it a hair better, I suppose, but nowhere close to anything substantial on 12z op run. Agreed and thank you. Explanations help those that are here to learn. That’s why this board was formed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Unfortunately with the energy that is being held back in the southwest- It will likely eject after it warms up and be a big rain maker. Last night's OP euro showed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: To be fair to eyewall, the CMC took a step toward even more suppression. The CMC has been more accurate than the GFS lately. Could things change? Sure, but right now, it is like being down 30 points at half time in a college basketball game. This winter has not shown the ability to make a comeback in a game like that. All the models are suppressed and seem to be fixating on that rather than bouncing back and forth. They are locked in. This is all a huge stretch. We're 120hrs out from the event starting. A small adjustment in modeling would lead to a widespread snow for lots of people on this board. Take a look at the snow from last week, when no global models were showing any snowfall just 72hrs out. I think that qualifies as a "comeback in the game" if you will. This storm has much better odds of turning out in our favor than that one did, 120 hrs out. It may not work out, but it's far from a "down 30 points at halftime" game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Unfortunately with the energy that is being held back in the southwest- It will likely eject after it warms up and be a big rain maker. Last night's OP euro showed it. Yep basically back to square one at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 The 12z GEFS mean doesn't look too bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, burrel2 said: This is all a huge stretch. We're 120hrs out from the event starting. A small adjustment in modeling would lead to a widespread snow for lots of people on this board. Take a look at the snow from last week, when no global models were showing any snowfall just 72hrs out. I think that qualifies as a "comeback in the game" if you will. This storm has much better odds of turning out in our favor than that one did, 120 hrs out. It may not work out, but it's far from a "down 30 points at halftime" game. Yea... I don’t get it. Thermal profiles still look okay (enough to continue watching) for sc and ga at this range. I mean it’s 120 hours away. The pattern is super progressive and the pig ridge never really goes away, no matter how many times it disappears on the models, so it leaves the possibility of moisture further north than what it shows currently. It will continue to change each run. It’s a progressive pattern, so many flying pieces to grasp. Will it be snow or rain? At this point there’s still enough uncertainty to keep watching. After all....that’s why we’re here isn’t it? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 The reason for the change is an eastward trend in the shortwave that drops in to help create lift. Compare: The 24 hour change in the gfs shows a 500 mile shift East. Because of this, the shortwave has a more positive tilt and produces less moisture transport. Still a very potent setup and I don’t think it would take too many tweaks to show snow again, but this is a setback. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblzchance N CLT Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, eyewall said: I know I am just expressing frustration. Anyway if you want a little more it is obviously a very suppressed run with the strong high nosing south and confluence in the upper levels. There just isn't the amplification to unleash a power house low nor the strong shortwave energy. Your looking at some weak disturbances feeding off strong out vorticity to the south of the confluence that would result in a weak "southern slider". That is what this run shows. Is it a hair better, I suppose, but nowhere close to anything substantial on 12z op run. Thanks for the analysis! So in future runs what should we be looking for to help amplify those disturbances without loosing that beautiful dome of high pressure? Is it that the angle of approach of the northern stream diving in is too far east creating a dry WNW flow instead of more of WSW flow like in earlier model runs? I know we’re basically looking at squeeze play setting up along the thermal gradient between the NS and the Southeast ridge. Is it a matter of having that gradient setting up more WSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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