BornAgain13 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Would love to see this thing come a little further north.... I'm being fringed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Lol GFS is slowly trending toward suppression. Always one step behind ECMWF. Seems like we need the ECMWF to show something soon or this will be rain in south Florida by tomorrow afternoon. Hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 As wet and over performing as all our rain events have been I highly doubt this system stays suppressed. As cold as the profile looks, if this thing can amp up a little more we could be looking at a foot plus type storm. Wouldn't take much adjustments to get inch+ liquid totals in to -5 850 air that's only getting colder as the system moves in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Would this be a 10:1 type snow or Kuchera? The Kuchera maps show a lot less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: Just for reference. The snow storm from last week was modeled to be 36-40 degrees by all the global models the night before the event for my backyard. That storm had a similar thermal profile to the one being shown. As it turns out I got down to 31.5 degrees and got over 3.25 inches of snow from just .35 inches of liquid. And the snow started sticking within a few minutes of falling. Now, if we only manage 1/10th of liquid with this storm then that might be problematic for accumulation(due to the boundary layer/mixing). But i mean you're only getting 1 inch even if every flake sticks anyways in that scenario. I guess my point is you don't need inch+ precip totals to overcome a very a shallow boundary layer. As long as we get 1/4 to 1/2 inch of liquid we should get a nice accumulating snow from this system,(if the thermal profiles are modeled correctly). If you're below .25 liquid totals for this storm, then yes, you probably won't get much accumulation outside the mountains. Yep, if you buy the soundings on the gfs it still looks very similar to Saturday's snow...if not even a touch colder where I'm at...similar to the earlier euro runs. Wish it wasn't still 6 days out and I could cash out now with the 18z gfs...0.70 to 1.00 liquid here..looks like all snow...save for maybe a little rain to start. It's hard not to be hopeful and encouraged but knowing how wrong the gfs normally is at this range..it worries me just as much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Would this be a 10:1 type snow or Kuchera? The Kuchera maps show a lot less. Depends on where your surface temp winds up. If it's below 32 then you'd be at 10:1 or better. Of course if it's 33 in the afternoon with a 2pm sun angle you will be lucky to get 8:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Yea, the sad thing is we are still so far out. This thing could trend in to nothing on all the models, only to show back up 3 days from now! It is nice having something substantial to track though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 20 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Don’t show the 18z GFS snowfall maps to Mackdaddy. A foot for Orangeburg while he gets fringed Feb 73 redux incoming.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, burrel2 said: As wet and over performing as all our rain events have been I highly doubt this system stays suppressed. As cold as the profile looks, if this thing can amp up a little more we could be looking at a foot plus type storm. Wouldn't take much adjustments to get inch+ liquid totals in to -5 850 air that's only getting colder as the system moves in. We also have a ++++AO and +++nao. I wouldn't be surprised to see this be more expansive and further north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Just now, franklin NCwx said: We also have a ++++AO and +++nao. I wouldn't be surprised to see this be more expansive and further north. Jan 88 had a ++NAO, not sure about the AO!? Always hope.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 If you can’t make thermals work with a 1043 high banana’d all over the SE, might as well pack it up and call it a season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateFlurry Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Would love to see this thing come a little further north.... I'm being fringed! It’s going to come N. Just how far NW is the 10k question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Yea, the sad thing is we are still so far out. This thing could trend in to nothing on all the models, only to show back up 3 days from now! It is nice having something substantial to track though. That's what I kept thinking to myself last week....that It was really nice to finally have something to track. Was a lot of fun...if there was one negative, it was such a quick shot...hopefully this would last longer. I sure didnt expect to have something to track again so soon...just hope it doesnt shift away or disappear altogether. Even if it shifts north or south, I hope it's a good one so the south can blow out the mid Atlantic this year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Just now, Lookout said: That's what I kept thinking to myself last week....that It was really nice to finally have something to track. Was a lot of fun...if there was one negative, it was such a quick shot...hopefully this would last longer. I sure didnt expect to have something to track again so soon...just hope it doesnt shift away or disappear altogether. Even if it shifts north or south, I hope it's a good one so the south can blow out the mid Atlantic this year Bring it. I was in Mexico on vacation last week through Tuesday this week. Missed the fun looking to see some devils dandruff fall Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: If you can’t make thermals work with a 1043 high banana’d all over the SE, might as well pack it up and call it a season. Only thing with HP's that strong is what we're seeing with such a weak system: suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: If you can’t make thermals work with a 1043 high banana’d all over the SE, might as well pack it up and call it a season. Yeah I'd have to agree with that. The high is really as good as we've been able to get in years (minus CAD). If that doesn't get us down to freezing I'm not sure we have any hope! lol. With that said, I'm always worried about surface temps. Hopefully it'll be good drama this weekend hoping the euro comes on board. Then, I'll start worrying about temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Only thing with HP's that strong is what we're seeing with such a weak system: suppression Always, always, always need cold first, then take my chances! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Just now, SnowNiner said: Yeah I'd have to agree with that. The high is really as good as we've been able to get in years (minus CAD). If that doesn't get us down to freezing I'm not sure we have any hope! lol. With that said, I'm always worried about surface temps. Hopefully it'll be good drama this weekend hoping the euro comes on board. Then, I'll start worrying about temps. Euro was on board yesterday, it’ll be back by Sunday, then here comes the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Euro was on board yesterday, it’ll be back by Sunday, then here comes the NAM... The NAM crushed it on the last event. Euro saw it but the NAM locked it in. Every now and then a blind squirrel finds a nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Euro was on board yesterday, it’ll be back by Sunday, then here comes the NAM... I don't know man. I'm not a big believer in the "it's fine it lost it it'll come back" theory. The good ones get latched on to and usually hang in there imo. At least on the ensembles. The ensembles really aren't great anywhere yet. By Monday I think we'll know what's coming. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 When does the GEFS come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie_Williams Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: When does the GEFS come out? It's out already 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Ollie_Williams said: It's out already Not to bad looking but not great either... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 About 11 (~55%) members hit my general area. This looks like either a hit or a miss storm overall. Not much in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Anyone have analogs for these dates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 About 11 (~55%) members hit my general area. This looks like either a hit or a miss storm overall. Not much in between11/20 for me too, I will take token flakes but man some of those look good...Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 34 minutes ago, CaryWx said: About 11 (~55%) members hit my general area. This looks like either a hit or a miss storm overall. Not much in between Yeah I counted (18z GEFS): 11 - SE Forum hit (somewhere) 7 - No Storm / Suppressed into the Gulf / Miss 2 - Hit to our north Previous run (12z GEFS): 11 - SE Forum hit (somewhere) 9 - No Storm / Suppressed into the Gulf / Miss 0 - Hit to our north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah I counted (18z GEFS): 11 - SE Forum hit (somewhere) 7 - No Storm / Suppressed into the Gulf / Miss 2 - Hit to our north Previous run (12z GEFS): 11 - SE Forum hit (somewhere) 9 - No Storm / Suppressed into the Gulf / Miss 0 - Hit to our north Trending odds grit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Looking at the WRF. Virginia Beach south to extreme northern Outer Banks may see some Ocean Effect snow showers/flurries tomorrow. The column is below freezing. Moisture is limited. But very possible for some low top streamers coming off the Atlantic. Winds in the lowest 6k feet coming in out the NE. Doesn't happen much. So it would be a rarity for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 The ICON remains suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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