Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 2 words: NW trend! Nice to see the GFS pick up on the Euros rain event! This is still fantasy land at this point, but as always, especially south of the boarder, borderline cold looks to be a huge issue here. Gotta get the cold in to have any shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Decent jump on the GEFS mean as well. It also showed noticably less tendency to leave the wave behind on mean vorticity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 56 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: . If it's gonna amp up, I hope it's late so it can get all the coastal folks and keep all of its warm air out over the Atlantic. We are used too it Don't worry.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 I take it that the ECMWF is not good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: I take it that the ECMWF is not good? Looks like the CMC, suppressed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 17 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Looks like the CMC, suppressed. Either it is to much cold or to little. Need that perfect balance. EPS will save us. NW trend will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 6z GFS still has the possibilities of Thursday event! All in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Got any pics mack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 At quick glance there may have been some issues with last nights (OOZ) EURO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Focus on Thursday. Thursday is a no frills, overrunning event where the atmosphere is hair trigger sensitive to disturbances due to the thermal gradient. The closing coastal needs a lot more to go right. Focus on Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 A lot of moving pieces for the system next week. One thing to pay attention to this far out more so than fantasy maps and exact placement of precip as modeled is the mode of cold air transport. This cannot be emphasized enough that even the best runs the last 2 days, especially east of the mountains, are highly dependent on the ~1040 mb High able to efficiently push cold air in-time to meet with the precip. This cold-chasing rain approach very rarely works out especially when the cold is coming from the NW. A backdoor front with cold air established in the NE usually works better (CAD). THAT being said, this is one of the strongest highs we've seen modeled this season. If we can get a long-duration overunning event, those can work in this setup. An amped low can also work to pull and manufacture some of it's own cold air (But we all know the mid level implications of an amped SE storm with marginal cold to begin with). Verdict: this situation is borderline at best. The Euro appeared to be onto something with runs yesterday before going to suppression city today. But the storm is still there. It did not lose it. GFS obviously was more in line with the EURO runs, but is delayed with the cold air (likely not incorrect). This is probably our best "threat" this season, but it has much less going for it than it does going against it and that's just the truth. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 1 hour ago, ILMRoss said: Focus on Thursday. Thursday is a no frills, overrunning event where the atmosphere is hair trigger sensitive to disturbances due to the thermal gradient. The closing coastal needs a lot more to go right. Focus on Thursday. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 So its encouraging to have the 6z GEFS looks better but it stinks that we lost the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 1 hour ago, ILMRoss said: Focus on Thursday. Thursday is a no frills, overrunning event where the atmosphere is hair trigger sensitive to disturbances due to the thermal gradient. The closing coastal needs a lot more to go right. Focus on Thursday. Yeah, the problem is there may no energy to work with. The euro took a step toward the gfs in wanting to hang the energy back in the SW. Always something...especially so this winter. I don't think it's dead yet but the euro suite (including the EPS) makes me think this is going the way everything else has this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Both Euro and GFS seem to be targeting just north of ILM for Thursday. Actually good consistency in showing frozen there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 12z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, bargainmusic said: 12z GFS Wait, we lost the GFS? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLMet84 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 1 hour ago, bargainmusic said: 12z GFS That looks almost identical to 2-8 in north ga. No way that can verify like that. Then again we are talking about a week away. Nice to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 I will be headed down I-40 if anything remotely close to that is actually expected to verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Liking the CMC not as suppressed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Just now, eyewall said: I will be headed down I-40 if anything remotely close to that is actually expected to verify. You may need to get on I-40 but climo says you’ll need to head west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: You may need to get on I-40 but climo says you’ll need to head west. Yeah true. The point is if anything actually materializes I plan on being there for it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Here's the 12z GFS. There are two key shortwaves in the northern stream (top left panel). The first is in the eastern Great Lakes at the start of the loop. That's the table setter with the cold high pressure coming in behind it (behind the eastern U.S. cold front). The next one drops down from Montana into NE Colorado - this works to keep the flow more southwesterly across the south. I've noticed a trend in recent model runs to have this shortwave drop a bit farther to the southwest, which is what is needed to get the overrunning precip going. Having that wave drop into the southwest and then hope it spins and comes out at just the right time is a riskier play (as ILMROSS referenced earlier). That wave also links up with waviness in the subtropical jetstream. Note on the bottom left panel how the moisture blows up in Texas before heading east. The ICON had a very similar look to the GFS, but it was a close miss with the storm over the SE. This GFS run though no doubt has some good qualities to it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Got toe mighty! Gfs cmc and ukmet are all major hits for northern Ga/upstate sc. ukmet looks the best of them all at 144hrs! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Pretty sure this has been asked before but what does Dendritic growth mean on the soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Extreme NEGA said: Pretty sure this has been asked before but what does Dendritic growth mean on the soundings? Typically the area on a sounding where the temp is between -10C and -20C. You want to see if that region is saturated or not. This is the temp range for optimal snow growth and the microphysics involved in that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Just now, Extreme NEGA said: Pretty sure this has been asked before but what does Dendritic growth mean on the soundings? There's a range of temps at which dendrites grow (which create very high ratio snows). Ideally you want the area of greatest lift, to fall within this zone to get dendrites. On tropical tidbits, the orange bars on the left tell you how much lift there is at that level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Got toe mighty! Gfs cmc and ukmet are all major hits for northern Ga/upstate sc. ukmet looks the best of them all at 144hrs! How does it look for coastal plain NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Every sounding ive looked at is saturated up to 250mb Thursday morning. Growing dendrites shouldn’t be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Every sounding ive looked at is saturated up to 250mb Thursday morning. Growing dendrites shouldn’t be a problem. 850mb temps look good too. Got to imagine the snow maps are underdone at this range right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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