SnowNiner Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 minute ago, frazdaddy said: You do know this is all virtual and no matter what I say I can't change it ....Right? Just messing around. Fantasy snow is an art form. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Maybe at the surface, but upstairs it more of a Dec 2018 look (storm that hit NGA and the mtns) - that is, positive tilt trough dives down and brings the cold, then SW flow commences along the boundary. We need a Jan 11 redux! Man, that was great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: The 12z EURO is looking more suppressed than what I originally thought... MA nightmare! EPS should be good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, Extreme NEGA said: Soundings don't look good though Just for fun given the time range but Soundings are fine from what I see. Its surface temps are obviously too warm given the snowfall. Keep in mind the euro busted pretty bad with the weekend snow...ended up being 5 to 8 degrees too warm at the surface. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Just messing around. Fantasy snow is an art form. I know, me too. Trying to draw him out. It's all we have but hey maybe it trends NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 12z Euro still has the coastal ... another good run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 The Euro turns the corner late with the wave, just in time to hit Eyewall 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Can a Burger boom happen for the Icon or CMC runs? Or Euro specifically? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: Soundings are fine from what I see. Its surface temps are obviously too warm given the snowfall. Keep in mind the euro busted pretty bad with the weekend snow...ended up being 5 to 8 degrees too warm at the surface. Yep, 850's and 925's both looked great throughout. No warm nose at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, griteater said: Maybe at the surface, but upstairs it more of a Dec 2018 look (storm that hit NGA and the mtns) - that is, positive tilt trough dives down and brings the cold, then SW flow commences along the boundary. Being in Athens at the time I hated that storm. Back in the Mtns now I'd love to have another go at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Anyone have what it does between 216 and 240? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: Soundings are fine from what I see. Its surface temps are obviously too warm given the snowfall. Keep in mind the euro busted pretty bad with the weekend snow...ended up being 5 to 8 degrees too warm at the surface. Yep the suface temps is what I was referring to but that is true about last weekends system. Nice to finally have something on on the euro too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 I bet the Euro snow maps should be beautiful!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx · 51s The 12z ECMWF continues support a wintry weather threat late next week. Overrunning wintry precip in Southeast Thursday, coastal low by Saturday with wintry weather eastern Carolinas/SE Va. 12z GFS/Canadian had no overrunning and coastal too far offshore. 12z EC keeps hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 I bet the Euro snow maps should be beautiful!?12z Euro Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 I feel like in this pattern that is quite possibly the best look we could hope for board wide. Weak over running, followed by late coastal development, means literally no one has to deal with any warm air advection. If it bombed out earlier it'd screw the eastern zones, and if it lost the over running it'd screw us to the west. Can't imagine the mood on this board if such a region wide event were to go down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: I feel like in this pattern that is quite possibly the best look we could hope for board wide. Weak over running, followed by late coastal development, means literally no one has to deal with any warm air advection. If it bombed out earlier it'd screw the eastern zones, and if it lost the over running it'd screw us to the west. Can't imagine the mood on this board if such a region wide event were to go down. Atlanta shutsdown again lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Anyone have what it does between 216 and 240? Check it out here - https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2020021312&fh=3&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Can anybody tell where the euro thinks the snow cover will be? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Some thoughts;This is an uncommon, although not unheard of, setup that exists because of the thermal gradient. Check this out: There is a very intense thermal gradient here with a trough in the NE and a strong ridge poking in from Florida. The general mechanism for winter mischief is that any blip or impulse riding this gradient will be able to kick up precipitation from frontogenesis and general warm air advection (which sounds scary but in pure scientific terms is another way to produce lift. WAA = lift!) The high pressure also helps. I’m not really focusing on the potential coastal closer the euro has until a few more days pass. The issue here is the high 500mb heights; it may not be very cold throughout the entire atmosphere and *whatever* this is may evolve into a delicate mix forecast as cold air still has potential to undercut things at the surface. Synoptically, I think a similar event is 1/28/14 (which eventually brought a moderate snowfall along a wave riding a big thermal gradient) although not a perfect analog. It’s an imperfect setup but there’s a higher ceiling than most events due to the potential duration/moisture supply. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Euro Ens Mean - not much change from the 00z run. It has the appearance of being a little colder, but that's just because it's a touch faster to bring the cold air in. Probably some decent hits on the members, but I haven't seen them yet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, griteater said: Euro Ens Mean - not much change from the 00z run. It has the appearance of being a little colder, but that's just because it's a touch faster to bring the cold air in. Probably some decent hits on the members, but I haven't seen them yet Awesome!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 24 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Yep, 850's and 925's both looked great throughout. No warm nose at all. Yep, only a very shallow warm layer near the surface which would easily be overcome taking it at face value. 22 minutes ago, Extreme NEGA said: Yep the suface temps is what I was referring to but that is true about last weekends system. Nice to finally have something on on the euro too. It actually is a few degrees colder at 925mb to the surface than Saturday's system. Euro showing 0.50 to 0.75 liquid so those snow total maps are a bit underdone...probably closer to 4 to 6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Not as much on the EPS Mean this run, but some hits on that second image 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 minute ago, griteater said: Not as much on the EPS Mean this run, but some hits on that second image What's the control look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: What's the control look like? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, Lookout said: Yep, only a very shallow warm layer near the surface which would easily be overcome taking it at face value. It actually is a few degrees colder at 925mb to the surface than Saturday's system. Euro showing 0.50 to 0.75 liquid so those snow total maps are a bit underdone...probably closer to 4 to 6. Yea I feel like too many get caught up in the clown maps. If you look at precip totals and temps aloft the clown isn't telling you the truth a lot of times. Fun one to watch especially with possible coastal low development which could really enhance the Lee side precip totals if it times out right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, griteater said: Well at least the storm didnt disappear. It's still there Hopefully we will see some consensus in the coming days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Euro and EPS control continue to be in near lock step with one another. EPS mean is down just a bit, but at this range it's gonna jump around some so I wouldn't worry about it unless a downward trend over several runs shows up. But even then, all the ensembles spiraled downward in the medium range for this past weekend only to come back inside day 2-3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Good news is the storm signal is there. plenty of time to iron out the details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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