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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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40 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

Just browsing this forum but wow! When is the last time South Carolina had anything like this verify?

Probably Feb 73 would be the closest. Personally I would pass, it brings basically nothing for me. Need an I85 special. I think these Euro clown maps are just as useless as the GFS ones, so this is entertainment only anyway. 

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The key difference I'm seeing is the energy getting cutoff in the SW, on the GFS, before moving east. This let's heights rise just ahead of it. Needs to come in nose down and spin up at the last second. Preferably just slightly earlier than 0z showed and it'd be a basically board wide crusher. 

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Just now, SnowDawg said:

GFS Ensemble largely supports the OP in the energy getting cutoff and left behind out west. gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-vort500_z500-2200000.thumb.png.098e33469e5330315deecb91ae2efd9b.png

0z EPS for comparison. ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-2200000.thumb.png.93e11213bc957905336104e16a4a9faf.png

GFS very well may have the right idea here, it's just too early to tell. 

Doesn’t the GFS have a bias for holding energy back too long? I thought that was a thing? I don’t know how anything holds back in such a fast flow, just got to get timing right!

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Doesn’t the GFS have a bias for holding energy back too long? I thought that was a thing? I don’t know how anything holds back in such a fast flow, just got to get timing right!

Possibly. I honestly don't know. People reference biases so much it's hard to tell which ones are real and which ones aren't anymore lol. 

There's definitely a window of potential, but as always we are threading some tiny needles. 

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Doesn’t the GFS have a bias for holding energy back too long? I thought that was a thing? I don’t know how anything holds back in such a fast flow, just got to get timing right!

Not sure I would bet against the GFS. It nailed our last storm from 6 hours out :sled:

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15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Doesn’t the GFS have a bias for holding energy back too long? I thought that was a thing? I don’t know how anything holds back in such a fast flow, just got to get timing right!

That’s the old Euro bias. 

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