burrel2 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Timing doesn't look bad to me for the western upstate. Looks like flakes will start to fly around 10:00am. And we all know these events typically show up a few hours ahead of time. Ideal timing for the lake lanier area though, 8:00am-10:00am. Really starting to think they get a couple inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Awesome man!! Was short lived but saw some nice penny sized flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 A few graupel pellets falling in Clemson as well right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 arw-2 looking juicy for Northern GA/western upstate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 25 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Light snow atm Per radar, looks like it might be snowing some at Ceaser's Head right now. 17 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Verbatim this shows snow all the way down to Abbeville and Greenwood; they don't get much these days. Just need this piece of energy to slow down once it gets here and form a trailing gulf low, then snow all night and into Sunday! And of course need BL temps to plummet to the upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 54 minutes ago, burrel2 said: arw-2 looking juicy for Northern GA/western upstate! 12z GFS looks almost identical to this! Verbatim, the 540 line is running through Savannah, but it’s mostly rain outside high elevations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Based off that model, most of soundings show temps near 33-34 under snow. Might not stick too well. But the convective nature its showing probably be big fat flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 @mackerel_sky all aboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLMet84 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 hours ago, Lookout said: Yep..its weird honestly how that is usually the case. Models insist most of it is just north of here but I think its mostly snow as far south as here per soundings...assuming it doesnt arrive too late where surface temps are a problem. Hrrr as usual is too warm at the surface if there is as much precip as advertised. . Regardless it's close enough to drive too regardless. High resolution models showing some pretty decent returns on composite imagery some decent rates arent out of the question. Other than the mountains atlanta to Gainesville could be the winner as it arrives early enough for temps to be near freezing. Could just the nam naming us but the 12z 12 and 3km run showing up to 0.30 liquid now. Well this is getting me excited then. What do you think about my area in NW Forsyth? I suppose it's mainly a timing thing (and enough precip), but if we get enough precip early enough, inch or so maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 RAP doesn’t like this one for Upstate SC. So for that reason, I’m out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, WarmNose said: RAP doesn’t like this one for Upstate SC. So for that reason, I’m out RAP is always too warm at the surface at this range. furthermore, even it shows the freezing level only few hundred feet above the ground. All that precip would certainly be falling as snow. even if it doesn't have a chance to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLMet84 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, WarmNose said: RAP doesn’t like this one for Upstate SC. So for that reason, I’m out I know that's not exactly what will happen but that shows NE Forsyth County GA getting heavy snow with rain for me on the NW side. I'd cry.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Think I'm going to head north from atlanta towads Dahlonega/Helen area and see some decent snow in the morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, ATLMet84 said: Well this is getting me excited then. What do you think about my area in NW Forsyth? I suppose it's mainly a timing thing (and enough precip), but if we get enough precip early enough, inch or so maybe? I think it's possible. It's going to be quick so the earlier it starts the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 15 minutes ago, burrel2 said: RAP is always too warm at the surface at this range. furthermore, even it shows the freezing level only few hundred feet above the ground. All that precip would certainly be falling as snow. even if it doesn't have a chance to stick. Hope you’re right. Nailed the last event for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 25 minutes ago, WarmNose said: @mackerel_sky all aboard! Choo Choo!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 anyone have access to posting the HRRR for tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said: anyone have access to posting the HRRR for tomorrow morning? It's out of range for the HRRR right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 27 minutes ago, ATLMet84 said: Well this is getting me excited then. What do you think about my area in NW Forsyth? I suppose it's mainly a timing thing (and enough precip), but if we get enough precip early enough, inch or so maybe? You are in a good spot...probably one of the best outside the mountains as it seems the only question with your location is how much precip falls...as temps at the surface and aloft are plenty cold. Given the early start time where you are you should be at or below freezing for a good portion if it. I would think 1 to 2 inches is a good bet. If anyone outside the mountains do well it will be cumming, Gainesville, dawsonville, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Someone should start a thread for this event and go ahead and curse it... JK pulling for you NE GA guys and the Upstate to squeak out something. I'd focus on the hi-res modeling with these type of systems and the most consistent model has been the NAM to the point that other models seem to be playing catch up. I lived the Cumming area for a year working with Sawnee EMC and I think that spot to Dahlonega, Franklin NC, and up towards Cesar's Head all look like a good spot to be. Boundary layer warmth is going to be hard to model in this but the upper levels are extremely favorable. I would expect at least some white rain in the upstate areas. If its in the 33-34 degree range then some slushy accumulations could occur there. Outside of the surprise snow a week ago, this is the best chance this season for several members of this sub forum. I think some 2-3 in amounts could happen in higher elevations in the areas I outlined. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Hope ya'll Upsate Folks cash-in, Tonight, into tomorrow.. I'll Keep your Mid-50's & Lows 60's down here in the coast for ya'll Enjoy your snow.. WHY? I'm NOT ready for it, broken/Inop..,, water-heater & too dern Poor,, to turn the Emergency heat on with the HVAC, (Heat pump is on the fritz),, LandLord,,, (Cough-SlumLord), doesn't have $$ to fix the broken things.. So we freeze... The 12ZGFS (and 12Z NAM) and NamNest looks intriguing out too 18Z Saturday tomorrow.. Looks GREAT for some of you Upstate Folks (Al/SC/NC),, if it comes to pass.. The 12Z HRRR Only went out too 11Z tomorrow, though @ the end of the Run starts too look Promisingly in Line with the Panels I posted above.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 40 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said: anyone have access to posting the HRRR for tomorrow morning? the 12Z run,, Only goes out too 11Z tomorrow, looks Very Promising though with what I posted above.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Wow, looks like the CLT metro area may even be in for a bit of a surprise, though I'd highly doubt anything sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 hours ago, burrel2 said: arw-2 looking juicy for Northern GA/western upstate! Advanced a few frames and it actually keeps the precip shield solid through central NC and south-central VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveRDU Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 13 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: Advanced a few frames and it actually keeps the precip shield solid through central NC and south-central VA Any thoughts on timing for RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 NWS Atlanta released a Winter Weather Advisory for up to 2 inches already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just had a graupel/rain mix in Raleigh! Winter! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 20 minutes ago, eyewall said: Just had a graupel/rain mix in Raleigh! Winter! It couldn’t be?? That’s a trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Look at that heavy band on the GFS radar simulation... yes please!Your due! . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 5:14 PM, burrel2 said: Setup for Saturday night looks pretty good to me. Especially for the mountains. Just need the trough to dig a little more. Temps above the surface look good. Boundary layer may be problematic but there is still room for that to trend better. My optimism paid off for a change! Still time for a bust though I guess... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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