Solak Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Love model mayhem. 00z GFS - 2.12" precip this weekend. 06z GFS - 0.48" this weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 I hear you. Had the full court press to turn in the AC last night. Could not do it on principle. . ProAs long as you never turn on the heat, you can generally get the house cool enough that it will stay semi-comfortable without AC except in extended blowtorch patterns.Truth be told-- heat is optional in our area of the country - AC is not (if you still want to be productive). Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 The indices today still look terrible. PNA - Still looks to go negative AO/NAO - Stays strongly positive EPO - Stays positive https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Hopefully things turn around at the end of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 15 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The indices today still look terrible. PNA - Still looks to go negative AO/NAO - Stays strongly positive EPO - Stays positive https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Hopefully things turn around at the end of this month. Still plenty of time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Still plenty of time Yeah, we've seen many years where our first storm comes at the end of January; and then many more where (Fab)February saves us. I wasn't worried going up to Christmas (December usually doesn't produce anyways), but I would be lying by saying I wasn't worried about losing most of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCSteel Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 12z GFS indicating frozen Jan 8 along I-85. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 18 minutes ago, SCSteel said: 12z GFS indicating frozen Jan 8 along I-85. Clipper dusting for north Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 40 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Clipper dusting for north Ga. Actually looks like a weak Southern wave, that timeframe has been kind of hinted at for the past 3-4 days on GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 40 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Actually looks like a weak Southern wave, that timeframe has been kind of hinted at for the past 3-4 days on GFS Huge difference between GFS & Canadian at the surface and h5. Gfs just looks weird on the 12z, almost fropa. Weak wave develops along the front. Chances are it will be gone by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 3 hours ago, FallsLake said: The indices today still look terrible. PNA - Still looks to go negative AO/NAO - Stays strongly positive EPO - Stays positive https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Hopefully things turn around at the end of this month. One would think that eventually, just on the laws of probability and statistics, or even just "chance" we could get some legitimate winter time with the indeces in our favor. It seems like the patterns we want are just out of step right now. Maybe in a few years the timing will have changed a bit and we'll start to see them (especially -NOA) better aling with winter instead of summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: One would think that eventually, just on the laws of probability and statistics, or even just "chance" we could get some legitimate winter time with the indeces in our favor. It seems like the patterns we want are just out of step right now. Maybe in a few years the timing will have changed a bit and we'll start to see them (especially -NOA) better aling with winter instead of summer? I keep thinking what goes up must come down (and vice versa). So with all the indices current in an unfavorable state, you would think a strong reversal is in order at the end of this month. Also, I've read that in cold winters there is usually a mid winter thaw (a relaxing of the predominate pattern). This also applies to warm winters where a mid winter cold period usually occurs. If I'm correct, I think 2000 was an overall warm winter and we ended up getting this (at mid winter): 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: I keep thinking what goes up must come down (and vice versa). So with all the indices current in an unfavorable state, you would think a strong reversal is in order at the end of this month. Also, I've read that in cold winters there is usually a mid winter thaw (a relaxing of the predominate pattern). This also applies to warm winters where a mid winter cold period usually occurs. If I'm correct, I think 2000 was an overall warm winter and we ended up getting this (at mid winter): And before that, we had a decent little event in the western part of the state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 18z GFS seems to have completely lost the weak wave for next Tuesday. Go figure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 hours ago, FallsLake said: I keep thinking what goes up must come down (and vice versa). So with all the indices current in an unfavorable state, you would think a strong reversal is in order at the end of this month. Also, I've read that in cold winters there is usually a mid winter thaw (a relaxing of the predominate pattern). This also applies to warm winters where a mid winter cold period usually occurs. If I'm correct, I think 2000 was an overall warm winter and we ended up getting this (at mid winter): For that storm in 2000 it was decidedly balmy a couple weeks prior in January as I was raking leaves in the backyard and recall napping in a chair on the deck w/o getting even chilly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 49 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: 18z GFS seems to have completely lost the weak wave for next Tuesday. Go figure. But we found an hour 384 blockbuster winter storm for NC @ 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 3 hours ago, Queencitywx said: And before that, we had a decent little event in the western part of the state. Yep.. actually it was quite a favorable pattern for a couple of weeks prior. Remember getting 2-3" in Statesville around the middle of the month which slightly tampered the horror of Jan 25 while watching everyone south and east of me get hammered. Never saw a single flurry that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 49 minutes ago, Wow said: Yep.. actually it was quite a favorable pattern for a couple of weeks prior. Remember getting 2-3" in Statesville around the middle of the month which slightly tampered the horror of Jan 25 while watching everyone south and east of me get hammered. Never saw a single flurry that day. We got stuck on Saluda Mountain that afternoon. We eventually got down 26 but it was a close call. 1/25/00 was basically a non event in my backyard as well. At most, a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Too bad it's hour 384 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Too bad it's hour 384 Still nice to look at. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 This would make a lot of us happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 It will be gone with the 00Z suit shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Heard Glenn Burns say the cold is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Extreme NEGA said: This would make a lot of us happy. Would indeed. It looks like a system from the 80s or 90s. We're now in the 20s... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 no wedge on the 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 What a mess in the long range. All features are still basically opposite of what we want. How does that even happen all the time now? MJO looks like a disaster going into phase 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Some timing differences on the Canadian and NC could see some snowfall from the UL. If it comes in later. Slow it up about 8 hours early Monday morning instead of Sunday evening. Map below is roughly 7pm. Temps in the 40s west 50s east. Good snow for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Man, January is not looking good. Most LR models / indices give us little hope through mid month. I hate having access to the CFS model on the Pivotal site. It would indicate all of January is toast; and if you extrapolated, at least the first week of February is lost. But I (we) should know it'll show a different solution within the next few runs (hopefully). https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2020010106&fh=6&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 If we can’t trust the LR models when they’re looking good, don’t trust them when they’re looking bad. We’ve seen things flip unexpectedly before. Have hope. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Don’t sleep on the 7th! GFS is still interesting on 12z! Cold looks about as good as we can get, moisture is around... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Don’t sleep on the 7th! GFS is still interesting on 12z! Cold looks about as good as we can get, moisture is around... I was just looking at that, worth keeping an eye on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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