griteater Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 That’s the best looking surface high over the Midwest I’ve seen on a model run in a long time (00z GFS early next week) 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Squashed but decent looking. Not buying it till CMC and ECMWF are on board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 GFS is a convoluted mess at 500mb, but that’s the cold high pressure we obviously need to hook up with 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Such a great lead up but nothing more than a tease. Gonna get squashed. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Come to pappa ! The 22/23 timeframe, is going to be a big dog! That cold press on 0z GFS, moisture and disturbances lurking around TX , it gone b good Mack special... start the thread 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Boooooooom 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 For what it’s worth, Robert seems pretty excited about the upcoming pattern, per his latest FB post 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 big dog for the upstate, one for the triangle/central NC, one for the Carolina midlands/eastern NC...Most, of course, in fantasy landSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I would not write off some token flakes on Friday night, but those curling edges of the “front ends” are hard to predict 12 hours out, not just 5 days. Whatever falls would then have to be beefy enough to not evaporate in the residual dry air mass. So I wouldn’t put hard money on that. Next week looks cool, with ample opportunity if the structure of the pattern holds, but most veterans here know how quickly that can sour. Would not yet focus on any particular time period. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I don’t get excited until @burgertime makes a forum appearance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Slightly better cold press at hr72 compared to 0z run hr96 yesterdaySent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 hours ago, ILMRoss said: I would not write off some token flakes on Friday night, but those curling edges of the “front ends” are hard to predict 12 hours out, not just 5 days. Whatever falls would then have to be beefy enough to not evaporate in the residual dry air mass. So I wouldn’t put hard money on that. Next week looks cool, with ample opportunity if the structure of the pattern holds, but most veterans here know how quickly that can sour. Would not yet focus on any particular time period. Yep when they call for warm and rainy it verifies, when cold and snow it sours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 RAH is also looking at Saturdays potential. But they say it shouldn't amount to much (if anything): "The high pressure system will be centered over eastern Quebec on Saturday morning and extend southward into the western Carolinas. At the same time, a surface low pressure system will organize across the Missouri Valley on Saturday morning and then lift into northern New England by Sunday morning. High level moisture will spread into central NC Friday night and a developing/lifting warm front will extend an area of light precipitation from the mountains east toward the Piedmont late Friday night and Saturday morning. There is a chance that the developing band of precipitation may start off as some wet snow or mixed rain or snow, mainly across locations near and north of Interstate-85. Still a lot of details to be resolved and the timing of this system has shifted a great deal but at this point it appears that any snow that falls will be associated with the lifting warm front, conversational in nature and short lived." Dealing with next weeks potential, I like the setup shown on last nights Canadian at day 10: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 9 hours ago, jburns said: Many here wouldn't even notice it. They would be too busy downloading and posting 340 hour maps. Yeah, that's kind of cute. Got a room reserved in A'ville just the same. We shall see....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Wow, posters on here are like Clemson defensive backs this morning....no where to be found! Surprising given the potential. Headed to Asheville this weekend, may see some token winter precip. early Saturday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Wow, posters on here are like Clemson defensive backs this morning....no where to be found! Surprising given the potential. Headed to Asheville this weekend, may see some token winter precip. early Saturday. The blockbuster pattern that was showing up a few days ago, for cold and wintry weather, has turned to cool shots, followed by rain. Rinse, repeat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Wow, posters on here are like Clemson defensive backs this morning....no where to be found! Surprising given the potential. Headed to Asheville this weekend, may see some token winter precip. early Saturday. As a UGA fan I have little room to speak of championship games....always watching to see how things pan out here in Cobb County. After spending 34 years along the lake in Chicago, winter is slightly different these days. Our oldest would love to make a few bucks shoveling/breaking up ice along the driveways and sidewalks of the neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The blockbuster pattern that was showing up a few days ago, for cold and wintry weather, has turned to cool shots, followed by rain. Rinse, repeat Cool? If anything it's too cold. The gulf coast gets snow while the interior SE is bone dry. We need a NW trend to save us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Cool? If anything it's too cold. The gulf coast gets snow while the interior SE is bone dry. We need a NW trend to save us. Agreed. Don't think the magnitude of cold has changed, just turned to suppression city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Agreed. Don't think the magnitude of cold has changed, just turned to suppression city... 12z was colder... Stronger cold press= more suppression. It even shows on the ensemblesSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 The one next week is really not that far away from getting really interesting really fast. I have a feeling that there are going to be a lot of long nights over the next couple of weeks. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Cold Rain said: The one next week is really not that far away from getting really interesting really fast. I have a feeling that there are going to be a lot of long nights over the next couple of weeks. I think it's fighting convective feedback which is limiting what we're seeing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GEFS/2020011412/SE/GEFSSE_prec_snens_384.pngSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, SnowDawg said: Cool? If anything it's too cold. The gulf coast gets snow while the interior SE is bone dry. We need a NW trend to save us. Right where we want it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: Right where we want it. I will be perfectly happy with an Outer Banks coastal scraper to the chagrin of 99.98 % of the rest of the board. Wouldn't that be something? Suppression is the only way us NC coasties can get into anything decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: The blockbuster pattern that was showing up a few days ago, for cold and wintry weather, has turned to cool shots, followed by rain. Rinse, repeat That is not even remotely correct. 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 So, we finally get the cold shot that the models hinted at for the past 3 or 4 weeks and the moisture suddenly vanishes. Classic stuff there. Let us see what happens though. You know where I am placing my bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I think, with the cold thats being modeled, january 2005 isnt a terrible analog. There were massive positive departures early in the month that went into two weeks in the icebox 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: So, we finally get the cold shot that the models hinted at for the past 3 or 4 weeks and the moisture suddenly vanishes. Classic stuff there. Let us see what happens though. You know where I am placing my bets. The moisture isn’t gone...maybe if you’re only looking at the OP GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Low country special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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