cbmclean Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: AFD ends before the pattern shift happens Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk I know, I was just laughing at the wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Better than the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CustomWX Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 CMC onboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Canadian lets see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 CMCE will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 CMC onboard! If the CMC joined the party, EURO should follow...Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 how does the Gefs members look Orangeburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 how does the Gefs members look Orangeburg?Took a step back in the right direction, today's runs will help set the flip on the 20th (T-minus 8 days away)Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Yes! That's what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 0z Canadian dropped .4" ZR over the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 2-4" of snow above the boundary line Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 This is actually a really good look here on the GEFS Mean days 7-10 - be nice to see the other ensembles with a similar look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 CMCE not coming out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Here it is on the surface maps (GEFS) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 CMCE not coming out?Not yet, 0z EURO just started though Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I'd say, with the usual caveats of long lead times, that our first window of potentiallly having something to track soon is showing up anywhere from the 20th-24th. Lots of GEFS members with a trailing wave behind the weekend storm, varying in timing but all with some degree of wintry precip on the northern periphery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 CMCE does not support the CMC OPSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie_Williams Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 CMCE does not support the CMC OPSent from my LML212VL using TapatalkI’m just going to discount the CMCE. Should be and EC trough with this look.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CustomWX Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 EPS is onboard. Lots of big dogs! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Definitely the highest it's been yet. Huge increase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Ok, game on! 6z GFS has a signal around the 22nd or so, looks a lot like CMC run, just more suppressed, but plenty of cold air! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Ok, game on! 6z GFS has a signal around the 22nd or so, looks a lot like CMC run, just more suppressed, but plenty of cold air! Game on until Wxsouth starts hyping and it's all over then! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Ok, game on! 6z GFS has a signal around the 22nd or so, looks a lot like CMC run, just more suppressed, but plenty of cold air! Oh yeah, it's there, this is thru the 24thSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 latest MJO on the EURO... Phase 7 inbound Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: latest MJO on the EURO... Phase 7 inbound Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk It looks like that curves back into the circle, then probably back into phases 3 and 4, completely bypassing the colder phases of 8,1, and 2 no? That's not at all what we want to see going into Feb. Just a couple days ago we saw it modeled with a much wider arc into 7 looking to go into 8. If this is correct well have a very short window and that could be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 It definitely looks like well flip to a colder pattern during the next two weeks. Big questions then are how long is the cold pattern and then of course do we get the big storm. But, as we've discussed in the past, even a great pattern doesn't always provide the storm. Or there is a storm and somebody is left out. Example, there could be a big coastal storm and folks in western sections are left out (some ensemble runs show this --> or the opposite, or south and not north, etc.). Point is we need the cold and we need a pattern shift that will give us multiple chances to increase the odds that more on this board can score a storm. Refocusing away from the big storm, we could see our friend the clipper(s) start to show in the medium range. Just need to get a deep enough eastern trough to get some of those northern disturbance south into our region. Many times we'll not see these solutions in the LR modeling so it could be something that pops inside 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 It definitely looks like well flip to a colder pattern during the next two weeks. Big questions then are how long is the cold pattern and then of course do we get the big storm. But, as we've discussed in the past, even a great pattern doesn't always provide the storm. Or there is a storm and somebody is left out. Example, there could be a big coastal storm and folks in western sections are left out (some ensemble runs show this --> or the opposite, or south and not north, etc.). Point is we need the cold and we need a pattern shift that will give us multiple chances to increase the odds that more on this board can score a storm. Refocusing away from the big storm, we could see our friend the clipper(s) start to show in the medium range. Just need to get a deep enough eastern trough to get some of those northern disturbance south into our region. Many times we'll not see these solutions in the LR modeling so it could be something that pops inside 5 days. This is the GEFSSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Question: how will the volcano going off in the Philippines right now effect anything downstream with the MJO or the wave pattern?Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 4 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Ok, game on! 6z GFS has a signal around the 22nd or so, looks a lot like CMC run, just more suppressed, but plenty of cold air! I’m gonna be in Hawaii at this time so of course it will verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 The EPS seems to be keying in on the 23rd for an event. Looks like an extended cold period if it verifies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now