TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Models keep pushing back cold and winter storms. IT IS A TRAP! Do not fall for it. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 MJO Forecast trend on the GEFS... Quality post from @donsutherland1 (recommended reading) - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52870-january-2020-general-discussions-observations-thread/?do=findComment&comment=5418232 "Key Points (from Don): 1. A preponderance of data is pointing to the return of winter in the East. 2. January could close with a sustained cold pattern that could continue into at least part of February." 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Wow... Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Wow... Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk A little bit of everything lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Here's what the MJO looked like back in November when it was chilly 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Models keep pushing back cold and winter storms. IT IS A TRAP! Do not fall for it.Not really, cold still comes in around the 20th... Pattern change first, THEN we worry about the h5 and the temp profiles Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just looked at 12z gfs, now I know why it’s dead in here! Nothing but rain through hour 384! So much for pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Just looked at 12z gfs, now I know why it’s dead in here! Nothing but rain through hour 384! So much for pattern change You have to smell the rain to get the graupel. Don’t worry, 18z will reel us back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Just looked at 12z gfs, now I know why it’s dead in here! Nothing but rain through hour 384! So much for pattern change 18Z will be better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, WarmNose said: You have to smell the rain to get the graupel. Don’t worry, 18z will reel us back in Well JB threw out winter of 77/78 and 14/15 in analogs to the start of winter and transition now and the Australian heat and fires! So what could go wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 4 hours ago, griteater said: Best run I've seen of the GEFS in the extended. Core of the cold air is in the lower 48 That's beautiful right there. GEFS has officially joined the party. Bonus: cold and wet. Hopefully the EPS didn't decide to quit overnight and take its ball home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Well JB threw out winter of 77/78 and 14/15 in analogs to the start of winter and transition now and the Australian heat and fires! So what could go wrong? He cancelled winter a couple of weeks ago, right? How are the GEPS looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Great look on the ensembles moving forward! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: He cancelled winter a couple of weeks ago, right? How are the GEPS looking? Someone posted his comments somewhere, he’s all aboard the arctic express coming up, forget how wrong he’s been all of fall and first of winter! Got a little Mississippi leg hound in em, if he ever starts, it’s just better to let him finish! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Anytime AK is red, it’s good for us in the E/SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Someone posted his comments somewhere, he’s all aboard the arctic express coming up, forget how wrong he’s been all of fall and first of winter! Got a little Mississippi leg hound in em, if he ever starts, it’s just better to let him finish! What was his forecast for the first have of winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I think he may have went above normal for the whole winter in the East, originally, but has flip flopped a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 The Canadian is a lot different than the GFS at hour 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 The OP Euro is still not bringing down the cold like the OP GFS, hug the EPS for now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Hey SE folks, first post for me in your forum this year. I've been wanting to stop by and let you know that I like what I'm seeing for your area but honestly I haven't liked anything I've seen since Dec 1st... until now... I know you guys have covered the reshuffle in the Pac etc. There are a lot of clues saying the -EPO is going to build and stay. Weeklies and CFS agree that it will prob continue through all of Feb but that's way out there in time. At the very least a -EPO period seems to be locking in next week. We'll see how long it lasts. Not sure how a -EPO/+NAO works down in the SE but a blend of Jan 1994, JF2014, and Feb 2015 is a decent mix of recent similar periods to what I'm seeing now. CAD Ice/mixed events are the most likely but any well timed wave on a boundary can break the right way. GFS and EPS ops suddenly starting considering their options about flipping the AO and/or NAO negative by d10. Ens don't agree with that yet but it was either a total coincidence or a clue that maybe hope is not lost on getting some blocking going at some point before speedos and SPF30 As always, I'm rootin for you guys. Maybe we get to share in a rare SE/MA coastal that glides slowly out to sea off the coast of NJ. lol 16 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hey SE folks, first post for me in your forum this year. I've been wanting to stop by and let you know that I like what I'm seeing for your area but honestly I haven't liked anything I've seen since Dec 1st... until now... I know you guys have covered the reshuffle in the Pac etc. There are a lot of clues saying the -EPO is going to build and stay. Weeklies and CFS agree that it will prob continue through all of Feb but that's way out there in time. At the very least a -EPO period seems to be locking in next week. We'll see how long it lasts. Not sure how a -EPO/+NAO works down in the SE but a blend of Jan 1994, JF2014, and Feb 2015 is a decent mix of recent similar periods to what I'm seeing now. CAD Ice/mixed events are the most likely but any well timed wave on a boundary can break the right way. GFS and EPS ops suddenly starting considering their options about flipping the AO and/or NAO negative by d10. Ens don't agree with that yet but it was either a total coincidence or a clue that maybe hope is not lost on getting some blocking going at some point before speedos and SPF30 As always, I'm rootin for you guys. Maybe we get to share in a rare SE/MA coastal that glides slowly out to sea off the coast of NJ. lol Thanks for stopping by Bob..enjoy your posts mucho! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 50 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The OP Euro is still not bringing down the cold like the OP GFS, hug the EPS for now Wait till you see the latest eps run. It continues to look better with each run! 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Wait till you see the latest eps run. It continues to look better with each run! Just took a peek at it myself and wow... Not only the epo ridge flipping the pattern but beginning to hint at blocking to. All the while with still above average precip. The pessimist in me is trying hard to keep my hopes down but things are looking very exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Anyone know if any GEFS and EPS members are showing snow during their runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Anyone know if any GEFS and EPS members are showing snow during their runs? GEFS mean. All of this in the SE falls between the 20th and the 26th. EPS snowfall is still coming in so I haven't seen it yet but based on H5 I'd be surprised if there wasn't some. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I thought the EPS looked warmer overall but could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 CPC Week 3-4 Forecast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 CPC mentions the nagging +NAO...I know we've seen cases in the past where we get the big western ridge, but the cold isn't able to drive way south in the means due to a +NAO. Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 The forecast 500-hPa circulation (blend of the global ensemble means) is consistent with the forecast during the preceding Week-2 period, showing the evolution from a negative PNA pattern to a negative NPO-WP pattern that favors more widespread below-normal temperatures over the CONUS. While this is broadly consistent with forecast MJO propagation, the forecast circulation fields also indicate the persistence of the low-frequency positive NAO pattern that has been observed over the past several weeks. This continued +NAO is not consistent with forecast MJO evolution. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now