Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Ugh, accidentally sent the mean twice, here are the individual ensemblesSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Holy schmoley that GEFS- 3.7" here? I doubt it but that increases the odds of at least a bit of accumulation in the ATL area. In any even I plan to drive to the NW somewhere even if we get not that much in my backyard. EDIT:SREF is also on the at least some accumulation bandwagon. This is for the airport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 If things truly play out the way the models insist on right now, I have to question how much the NAO even means to us. EPO feels far more important at the moment. Maybe the MJO can force it to flip by early/mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 We can see snow and snowy patterns when the indices are bad so I imagine we can definitely see bad patterns when the indices are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 SREF even has around 1/2" as the mean for around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Valid for KEHO(Shelby, NC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 It looks like, in Shelby’s case, all of the members with snow with the SREF are from the ARW family. The NMB members, all of them, have zero snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 18z GEFS jumped up this run: 2” mean line almost makes it to Martinsville. 1” mean line makes it to between Yanceyville and Hillsborough. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 hours ago, wncsnow said: The Pacific is screwing everything up Not a fan of it either...think we can still see something with a bit of luck though. Hopefully the -AO/-NAO hang on in Jan (along with a boost from a legit SSW), and the Pac improves in due time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Valid for KEHO(Shelby, NC) Check please! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 18z GFS with a weird stripe of snow through my area lolSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Not a fan of it either...think we can still see something with a bit of luck though. Hopefully the -AO/-NAO hang on in Jan (along with a boost from a legit SSW), and the Pac improves in due time Well we knew that we were likely to have Pacific problems going in to this year. Without the Atlantic/HL help we would probably be looking at at another tropical Christmas, so I look on the bright side of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Well we knew that we were likely to have Pacific problems going in to this year. Without the Atlantic/HL help we would probably be looking at at another tropical Christmas, so I look on the bright side of that. I'm in the prefer warm and dry camp if we don't get snow. 60s and winter fishing sounds much better than 40s and rain or 20s and wind. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, SnowDawg said: If things truly play out the way the models insist on right now, I have to question how much the NAO even means to us. EPO feels far more important at the moment. Maybe the MJO can force it to flip by early/mid January. The big -AO/-NAO winters/periods are kind of legendary, so that's what elevates interest I'd say. Dec-Jan 2010-2011, Winter 2009-2010, Dec-Jan 1995-1996, Jan-Feb 1987, Dec-Jan 1981-1982, Winter 1978-1979, Winter 1976-1977, Winter 1969-1970, Winter 1968-1969, Jan 1966, Jan-Mar 1960, Winter 1939-1940, Winter 1935-1936 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, griteater said: Not a fan of it either...think we can still see something with a bit of luck though. Hopefully the -AO/-NAO hang on in Jan (along with a boost from a legit SSW), and the Pac improves in due time Thirded. Thankfully with the strat taking a beating it "seems" like the blocking regime will hang around. I read too that a December -AO regime usually lasts deep into winter. With everyone expecting +PNA first of January timeframe we could be right on the edge of a really great pattern first week of the year. Without it though anything we see until then will likely not be cold enough IMO. All eyes on January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I'm in the prefer warm and dry camp if we don't get snow. 60s and winter fishing sounds much better than 40s and rain or 20s and wind. To each their own. I despise warm weather in the winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 26 minutes ago, griteater said: The big -AO/-NAO winters/periods are kind of legendary, so that's what elevates interest I'd say. Dec-Jan 2010-2011, Winter 2009-2010, Dec-Jan 1995-1996, Jan-Feb 1987, Dec-Jan 1981-1982, Winter 1978-1979, Winter 1976-1977, Winter 1969-1970, Winter 1968-1969, Jan 1966, Jan-Mar 1960, Winter 1939-1940, Winter 1935-1936 Winter 1976-1977 was the best of my life. I was teaching in Floyd County, VA. We went to school 1 day in January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: Ugh, accidentally sent the mean twice, here are the individual ensembles Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk So what's with the "banding" look to all of these members? 3-4 distinct ares of enhancement of anafrontal snowfall. Is it weak distinct disturbances riding up the front, or temp driven with time of day? Weird look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 18z GFS lays down a nice storm for Northern NC and South Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 19 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said: So what's with the "banding" look to all of these members? 3-4 distinct ares of enhancement of anafrontal snowfall. Is it weak distinct disturbances riding up the front, or temp driven with time of day? Weird look. Pretty much. Or the lack of consolidation of the main trough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, Grayman said: 18z GFS lays down a nice storm for Northern NC and South Va. Pretty significant icing here this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 In 2010/2011 the big events happened just before each spell of blocking temporarily broke down. If that holds true this year I’d look for a storm 10-15 days from now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 So what's with the "banding" look to all of these members? 3-4 distinct ares of enhancement of anafrontal snowfall. Is it weak distinct disturbances riding up the front, or temp driven with time of day? Weird look. Here is 18zSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 To me the absolutely insane thing is how 72 hours out the Euro is alone by itself, most of the other models ensembles show flakes but King Euro doesn't. Do we bet against it?Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: To me the absolutely insane thing is how 72 hours out the Euro is alone by itself, most of the other models ensembles show flakes but King Euro doesn't. Do we bet against it? Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk The Euro hasn't been king for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveRDU Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: To me the absolutely insane thing is how 72 hours out the Euro is alone by itself, most of the other models ensembles show flakes but King Euro doesn't. Do we bet against it? Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk I think they call it Dr no in the mid Atlantic forum for a reason..?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I’m trying to understand what you guys are getting excited about? There may be some snow flurries/showers in nw ga. Outside of that I don’t see anything other than mountain upslope snow. I’ll go on record saying no snow will fall for anyone outside of the mountains from the frontal band before the dry slot hits. Anything else is relying on upper level evergy and wnw surface flow...aka... flurries for nw ga and some snow for the mountains and that’s it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Quite frankly I think the Nam has it pretty much figured out. If that's the case.. we go from 80 Thursday to not out of the 40s Friday. Edit. Nam shows no possibility of flakes outside the mountains. But a long squall line instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I’m trying to understand what you guys are getting excited about? There may be some snow flurries/showers in nw ga. Outside of that I don’t see anything other than mountain upslope snow. I’ll go on record saying no snow will fall for anyone outside of the mountains from the frontal band before the dry slot hits. Anything else is relying on upper level evergy and wnw surface flow...aka... flurries for nw ga and some snow for the mountains and that’s it. I wanted to post that but thought I was missing something. Most on this board will be lucky to see a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: Good lord Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk You don't look at that and think its actually going to snow in Augusta over to Orangeburg do you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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