HKY1894 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 If we get this look with NAO first couple weeks of January should fun. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 38 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: If we get this look with NAO first couple weeks of January should fun. Agreed. It’s a really, really good look. Also a potential disturbance of the PV as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 The UKMET is more aggressive with the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckfever2 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: The UKMET is more aggressive with the changeover. Can you post this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, Buckfever2 said: Can you post this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 There’s not a huge difference in amount but it’s the difference between nothing and something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Alfoman said: That right there is money. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: That right there is money. Hopefully the models will start playing catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 45 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Hopefully the models will start playing catch up It seems like this Christmas storm is a pattern-breaking type of system, so I'm hopeful the models start to adjust as we get closer to the 25th. I am keeping an eye out on the potential system on the 28/29th. 12z GFS has our Baja wave finally north enough to interact with the energy propagating in from the Pacific, but we would need it to dig deeper and sharper. 12z CMC and Euro have the energy too far south+ dissipating over the Gulf, resulting in a clipper over the NE. Could be interesting! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 I still believe it won’t end up as much but there has been an uptick on the snowfall means today on the GEFS. For example, I’ve gained half an inch from 0z last night to 18z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 34 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I still believe it won’t end up as much but there has been an uptick on the snowfall means today on the GEFS. For example, I’ve gained half an inch from 0z last night to 18z today. I noticed that the GEFS have slowly risen some... I would be happy if we just had snow showers on Christmas day even if it didn't accumulate.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 The #1 analog for hour 132 on the CIPS analog guidance: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Op gfs long range looks interesting, strong disturbance in southwest that enters in southern Cali, with huge block overhead. This is the look that could lead to big east coast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 27 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: Op gfs long range looks interesting, strong disturbance in southwest that enters in southern Cali, with huge block overhead. This is the look that could lead to big east coast storm. The OP is insistent on a storm track through the OH valley or Midwest. Nothing close to a snowy pattern shown on the OP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The OP is insistent on a storm track through the OH valley or Midwest. Nothing close to a snowy pattern shown on the OP Yeah, 2nights operational looks terrible. Pops a SE Ridge by New Years ! Don't buy that, particularly with strong blocking setting up. I think it screws up with the L.P. drifting out in the Atlantic east of NC instead of moving NE toward NF . Also, west coast trough pendulum effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Going from this:to this:from just 12z to tonight is wild. Obviously still tons of big changes to come on this model. First run in like the last 8-10 that didn't have some degree of troughing over the east at this time. I vote toss lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 I think we have all heard talk of blockbuster snow patterns that haven't worked out the past few years so I'm pretty wary. Especially with so much model disagreement and changing run to run. DT said today the upcoming pattern is the best he has seen since January 1996.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 47 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I think we have all heard talk of blockbuster snow patterns that haven't worked out the past few years so I'm pretty wary. Especially with so much model disagreement and changing run to run. DT said today the upcoming pattern is the best he has seen since January 1996.. well that’s obviously bs. 2009/2010 happened. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 All we can hope for is the blocking theme to continue... if it does we will get our chances. I’m pretty surprised by the lack of fantasy storms, I think that will start to change soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 This 30's and rain crap is getting old fast. I feel like we have blown a few opportunities already. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Not going to lie. I do like the trends with the 06z GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 This 30's and rain crap is getting old fast. I feel like we have blown a few opportunities already.No joke! I’ve had more recently than last years. Lots of, if only... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 12Z GFS. A no go for snow. The front is a litter faster in pulling thru too. No apparent wave of low pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Despite the poor trend of the latest Op GFS, the ensembles hold out some hope for snow here. Lets wait to see what the Euro does before sticking a fork in the chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 So everybody is worried there isn’t fantasy storms in the 300+ hour range? Y’all know better and I expect as much. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 GFS still going for that SSW in the long range,the attack begins today or tomorrow with higher solar input. When and if it occurs you have to watch where that PV sets up .You don't want that getting stuck in central,SW Canada that happened a few years ago and hurt more than helped and I'm talking about down at 100hpa levels. Just my opinion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Not much with EURO ensembles for central NC--I hate this. We shall see this afternoon. One member (#41)---from 00Z December 20----the most I saw from the 50 members. Most of the others show very little. This #41 will skew the ensemble averages. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-carolina/m50_snow-depth-in/20201227-0600z.html. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Lots of wishcasting going on. This was never a storm for most of us in NC or SC East of the mountains. Of course I’m beginning to think no storms are for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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