FLweather Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 hours ago, Extreme NEGA said: The 12z Canadian did have this system too at the end of it's run.... Yeah really surprised this wasnt brought up earlier after the 12z runs. Both GFS and Canadian onto something? More digging with the southern stream with the Canadian. Ideally would want to see more ridging out west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Cad and wedge are the most overused terms on this board. And cliff. . Pro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Hammer said: And cliff. . Pro Add “Climo” , “CONUS” and “Front-end thump” to that list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Nothing beats 'sun angle' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Nothing beats 'sun angle' Give it 10 Days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 "Bust" should be on the list. Somebody make a list of the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 We used to say BOOM alot back in the good old days when Burger was here calling the PBP on the Euro. You know, back when BOOM actually meant something. Now....well now we just say NEXT! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 hours ago, FLweather said: Yeah really surprised this wasnt brought up earlier after the 12z runs. Both GFS and Canadian onto something? More digging with the southern stream with the Canadian. Ideally would want to see more ridging out west I think we need that western ridge a little taller and a few hundred miles further west to help dig that low just a bit more. Also, like to see the high hang back a few hundred miles, more in tandem (just ahead of) with the low (maybe back in MIZZ). Actually this would be excellent placement if we had a secondary high back north of the low. This looks in danger of getting pushed out unless that's a 50/50 low in the corner to help keep it anchored. It's also telling that a 1043 is that close yet the 540 bar is barely below. Haven't looked at temps but that tells me it's pretty marginal cold. Awesome to have something at least showing up within the ten day. This will change a hundred times so let's see if we can get this potential to show up inside 5 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Poof goes the stormSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: Poof goes the storm Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Should we shoot for 15 days out ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Should we shoot for 15 days out ?? 30 on the CFS...Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 37 minutes ago, BFF said: That is a crazy number. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 We could hit 7 the last week of January which is premium climo for us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 That was fun! The 17-20th storm, turned into a cutter on 12 z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Same sugar honey iced tea as always...Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 3 hours ago, Queencitywx said: That is a crazy number. Yeah hopefully some hope, in the meantime if the NWS is right starting Friday I am about to spend 3-4 days ( at least) with my daily lows being higher than my normal daily highs...we wont be able to get under 50-53 at night in Jan for days....…..that's just sad and depressing.....I mean hell if nature is gonna do me like that at least throw in some decent thunderstorms my way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 First step is for it to get cold again. Euro does that by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Good post Q. The cold coming east after the 16th or so is being pretty consistently modeled. Have no chance at significant winter storm in the SE without cold in the eastern half. Pretty frustrating seeing Portland getting ready for potential winter storms over the next 7 days when their annual average snowfall is 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 55 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: First step is for it to get cold again. Euro does that by the end of the run. When is the end of the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 34 minutes ago, weatherlover said: When is the end of the run? It goes out 240 hours so it has the cold coming around the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Good post Q. The cold coming east after the 16th or so is being pretty consistently modeled. Have no chance at significant winter storm in the SE without cold in the eastern half. Pretty frustrating seeing Portland getting ready for potential winter storms over the next 7 days when their annual average snowfall is 3". Yup! And if Portland is getting it, the SE is not. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Western trough Is gone by day 9 on the ensembles. Looking forward to tracking some storms! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 3 hours ago, franklin NCwx said: Western trough Is gone by day 9 on the ensembles. Looking forward to tracking some storms! Super cold air in Canada over the next 10 days. While heights certainly rise over the west after next weekend, that negative PNA is hanging in there like a hair on a biscuit. At least there are some signs of a pattern change. Hopefully we see some solid model evidence in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 hours ago, franklin NCwx said: Western trough Is gone by day 9 on the ensembles. Looking forward to tracking some storms! How can you tell? Are you looking at 500 mb map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 59 minutes ago, Extreme NEGA said: How can you tell? Are you looking at 500 mb map? yes negative heights indicate a trough and positive heights indicate a ridge. look at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 hours ago, franklin NCwx said: Western trough Is gone by day 9 on the ensembles. Looking forward to tracking some storms! We just have to convince the models to track them along with us.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Very active period between January 17-22 that still looks interesting... Historically, the time around MLK Holiday is a great spot for us, probably because it is smack in the middle of our "coldest" portion of the year. Also interesting that the GFS still has a horrible cold bias, particularly past day 5. The ECMWF and GFS are very different with the extent of the cold past day 5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 26 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Very active period between January 17-22 that still looks interesting... Historically, the time around MLK Holiday is a great spot for us, probably because it is smack in the middle of our "coldest" portion of the year. Also interesting that the GFS still has a horrible cold bias, particularly past day 5. The ECMWF and GFS are very different with the extent of the cold past day 5. 6z GFS was a good run haha. I'd take that. Key point is all signs are pointing (finally) to a relaxing of the western trough that allows a better storm track and more opportunity for storms to tap the cold air available. I hate burning such vast stretches of winter but there may be light at the end of the tunnel. This has been consistently modeled to some degree for days now. Not just a run in fantasy land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 6z GFS was a good run haha. I'd take that. Key point is all signs are pointing (finally) to a relaxing of the western trough that allows a better storm track and more opportunity for storms to tap the cold air available. I hate burning such vast stretches of winter but there may be light at the end of the tunnel. This has been consistently modeled to some degree for days now. Not just a run in fantasy land. Yeah, the 6z GFS was the first real Op model run in a long time that evolves to a legitimate wintry pattern that would provide several non-trivial opportunities for a widespread winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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