Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

Thanks Grit. Do you think the -NAO hangs around that long until the pacific improves? Another month? I was hoping the +EAMT would do work earlier and improve the pacific first of January, but it doesn't look like that's the case. Feel like we're on borrowed time. 

Just watching the ensemble model runs, this -AO/-NAO looks and feels legit.  I'm sure it will wax and wane, but I think the signal is more real this time than normal.  The near constant ridging in NW Asia with corresponding troughing in E Asia / NW Pacific is a configuration that will continually attack the stratospheric polar vortex and lend support to the tropospheric high latitude blocking.  I think we will eventually see an official SSW, but it make take some time (late Jan?)...and the chances of the SSW yielding favorable results are better when the troposphere and lower stratosphere are already experiencing blocking and are weaker than normal.  The ideal scenario would be for the tropospheric blocking to continue well into January, then we get the SSW that gives it an additional kick - it's not a far fetched scenario this time.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Just watching the ensemble model runs, this -AO/-NAO looks and feels legit.  I'm sure it will wax and wane, but I think the signal is more real this time than normal.  The near constant ridging in NW Asia with corresponding troughing in E Asia / NW Pacific is a configuration that will continually attack the stratospheric polar vortex and lend support to the tropospheric high latitude blocking.  I think we will eventually see an official SSW, but it make take some time (late Jan?)...and the chances of the SSW yielding favorable results are better when the troposphere and lower stratosphere are already experiencing blocking and are weaker than normal.  The ideal scenario would be for the tropospheric blocking to continue well into January, then we get the SSW that gives it an additional kick - it's not a far fetched scenario this time.

So you see what I see.

Not out the possibility 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The 12Z HRRR is coming in now.  Still showing possibility of flurries over central on Christmas Day.  Accumulations are non-consequential, dusting if anything.

NWS not buying it. Not even a mention of clouds in the forecast. Down-sloping makes it almost impossible to get any snow here in the lee. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

NWS not buying it. Not even a mention of clouds in the forecast. Down-sloping makes it almost impossible to get any snow here in the lee. 

Yeah I'd be surprised to see anything more than a random flurry.  But any flakes on Christmas day is a win to me.  

It is also showing mainly central/eastern NC.  Foothills do have the downslope component.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s not unusual to see flurries in the Piedmont from a westerly flow like the HRRR is showing.  Someone smarter than me could explain or tell my I’m completely wrong in my thinking lol.  
 

I assume it’s similar to how the mountains force warm air down lower in the summer in the Piedmont from the lift they create.  But now that warmer air produces a secondary lift in the Piedmont area producing light flurries.  Problem is there’s little moisture in the first place, it’s cold air which holds less moisture, and the mountains squeeze most of it out.  
 

I remember one rogue 3” or so snow we got in Charlotte area from a setup like that.  Very light blowing snow that piled up in about an hour.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The GFS has consistently shown this area with accumulating snow... can anyone comment on the potential it has?6cbaecb17855a3b3b879d44dc93ea690.jpg

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

This has been showing up for the last eight or so model runs.  That lollipop into northern Guilford would be fine with me.  I’m kidding myself though.  :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...