Orangeburgwx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 The ull been there. Just signs that the mountain folks will get hit hard True but it gives us outside the mountains hopeSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Man Orangeburg I’m a weenie but you might be the king. I would like to see a flake but .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3 hours ago, SnowNiner said: Thanks Grit. Do you think the -NAO hangs around that long until the pacific improves? Another month? I was hoping the +EAMT would do work earlier and improve the pacific first of January, but it doesn't look like that's the case. Feel like we're on borrowed time. Just watching the ensemble model runs, this -AO/-NAO looks and feels legit. I'm sure it will wax and wane, but I think the signal is more real this time than normal. The near constant ridging in NW Asia with corresponding troughing in E Asia / NW Pacific is a configuration that will continually attack the stratospheric polar vortex and lend support to the tropospheric high latitude blocking. I think we will eventually see an official SSW, but it make take some time (late Jan?)...and the chances of the SSW yielding favorable results are better when the troposphere and lower stratosphere are already experiencing blocking and are weaker than normal. The ideal scenario would be for the tropospheric blocking to continue well into January, then we get the SSW that gives it an additional kick - it's not a far fetched scenario this time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 27 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: It popped an ULL Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk At this point I would love to see even a dusting on Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Just watching the ensemble model runs, this -AO/-NAO looks and feels legit. I'm sure it will wax and wane, but I think the signal is more real this time than normal. The near constant ridging in NW Asia with corresponding troughing in E Asia / NW Pacific is a configuration that will continually attack the stratospheric polar vortex and lend support to the tropospheric high latitude blocking. I think we will eventually see an official SSW, but it make take some time (late Jan?)...and the chances of the SSW yielding favorable results are better when the troposphere and lower stratosphere are already experiencing blocking and are weaker than normal. The ideal scenario would be for the tropospheric blocking to continue well into January, then we get the SSW that gives it an additional kick - it's not a far fetched scenario this time. So you see what I see. Not out the possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Man Orangeburg I’m a weenie but you might be the king. I would like to see a flake but ....I may be a weenie but I learned my lesson about Wishcasting the hard way...So I stick to posting model outputsSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: I may be a weenie but I learned my lesson about Wishcasting the hard way... So I stick to posting model outputs Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk I wouldn’t put much faith in the HRRR 40+ hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 WRAL mentioned flurries a possibility in the viewing area on the 25th. Referenced HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 06z HRRR. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Is this HRRR for tomorrow afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 The 12Z HRRR is coming in now. Still showing possibility of flurries over central on Christmas Day. Accumulations are non-consequential, dusting if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: The 12Z HRRR is coming in now. Still showing possibility of flurries over central on Christmas Day. Accumulations are non-consequential, dusting if anything. NWS not buying it. Not even a mention of clouds in the forecast. Down-sloping makes it almost impossible to get any snow here in the lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: NWS not buying it. Not even a mention of clouds in the forecast. Down-sloping makes it almost impossible to get any snow here in the lee. Yeah I'd be surprised to see anything more than a random flurry. But any flakes on Christmas day is a win to me. It is also showing mainly central/eastern NC. Foothills do have the downslope component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckfever2 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: NWS not buying it. Not even a mention of clouds in the forecast. Down-sloping makes it almost impossible to get any snow here in the lee. Can someone post the 12Z HRRR, please and thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOD Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 It’s not unusual to see flurries in the Piedmont from a westerly flow like the HRRR is showing. Someone smarter than me could explain or tell my I’m completely wrong in my thinking lol. I assume it’s similar to how the mountains force warm air down lower in the summer in the Piedmont from the lift they create. But now that warmer air produces a secondary lift in the Piedmont area producing light flurries. Problem is there’s little moisture in the first place, it’s cold air which holds less moisture, and the mountains squeeze most of it out. I remember one rogue 3” or so snow we got in Charlotte area from a setup like that. Very light blowing snow that piled up in about an hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 The GFS has consistently shown this area with accumulating snow... can anyone comment on the potential it has?Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 When it comes to a (slightly) white Christmas in the Triad, I have a right to be delusional, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The GFS has consistently shown this area with accumulating snow... can anyone comment on the potential it has? Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk This has been showing up for the last eight or so model runs. That lollipop into northern Guilford would be fine with me. I’m kidding myself though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 12zSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 There is a big storm brewing at the end of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Correction: huge storm brewing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Correction: huge storm brewingOh my lord... That will make A LOT of people on this forum happy Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Best fantasy storm of the winter IMBY. If the block holds and the storm doesn't gain too much latitude in the plains we could be in business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Goodness....that's 2ft plus in Central Tennessee and it's not even done lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 This is 6 hours worth of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Canadian looks similar at that range so Euro is not alone.. Watch that shortwave diving in the 4 corners area around day 7/8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Best fantasy storm of the winter IMBY. If the block holds and the storm doesn't gain too much latitude in the plains we could be in business. At worst it holds like that and flips to snow on the way out and buries us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Canadian looks similar at that range so Euro is not alone.. Watch that shortwave diving in the 4 corners area around day 7/8.GFS has it too but no cold airSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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