BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 17 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I’m trying to understand what you guys are getting excited about? There may be some snow flurries/showers in nw ga. Outside of that I don’t see anything other than mountain upslope snow. I’ll go on record saying no snow will fall for anyone outside of the mountains from the frontal band before the dry slot hits. Anything else is relying on upper level evergy and wnw surface flow...aka... flurries for nw ga and some snow for the mountains and that’s it. I think what got my attention is the RGEM and SREF both have interest in this. I don’t think it’s going to be a lot or even much more than a flake or two but there is a chance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 You don't look at that and think its actually going to snow in Augusta over to Orangeburg do you?Heck no, I been telling my family the GEFS has been drinking the EURO's spiced eggnogSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Heck no, I been telling my family the GEFS has been drinking the EURO's spiced eggnogSent from my LGL322DL using TapatalkFollow up: so is the SREFSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: Follow up: so is the SREF Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Yeah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 SREF increases again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 End of the GEFS looks great with the NAO - that's classic NAO placement for winter storms in our forum with the max positive anomalies centered from the southern tip of Greenland and west toward Hudson Bay. The EPO, on the other hand, looks bad with the big low in Alaska. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 ^ Another thing on that GEFS loop, you can see how waves would be launched into California in the southern stream with that big North Pacific low (subtropical jet would be located between the blue negative anomalies in the N Pac and the yellow positive anomalies to the south). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Looking at the RGEM, the last two or three runs has some post frontal snow bands along the SC/NC border from roughly Cowpens to Wadesboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 This is all post frontal(Christmas Day/evening). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 48 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: SREF increases again... It’s at 0.5” for GSO, but if you toss out the highest four outliers, it’s barely a dusting. I’d be shocked to see flakes. It’s just not my turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 RGEM trend loop with the wave. It is trending south and more energetic. This is a good setup for snow showers across North Bama and North GA IMO (even some in central Bama/GA). Localized light accumulations too. More renegade snow showers east of the there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 0z MeanSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 0z GEFS suites... Get a load of ol' Love Potion #9Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FamouslyHot Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: 0z GEFS suites... Get a load of ol' Love Potion #9 Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk The GEFS maps from College of DuPage use the old GFS rather than the FV3. Meaning it could be more or less reliable depending on how you feel about the FV3 lol I personally wouldn't put too much stock in this depiction. The "fingers" of snowfall seem to point to an issue resolving borderline temperatures during the time skips. Plus the pattern of snowfall would imply that this is the back end of the anafront, rather than post-front flurries from the back-end energy like the RGEM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 The GEFS maps from College of DuPage use the old GFS rather than the FV3. Meaning it could be more or less reliable depending on how you feel about the FV3 lol I personally wouldn't put too much stock in this depiction. The "fingers" of snowfall seem to point to an issue resolving borderline temperatures during the time skips. Plus the pattern of snowfall would imply that this is the back end of the anafront, rather than post-front flurries from the back-end energy like the RGEM shows. Why doesn't CoD use the FV3?Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FamouslyHot Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Why doesn't CoD use the FV3? Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Can't say why, but the evidence is that CoD only shows 20 ensemble members, whereas sites like WeatherBell shows the 30 from the FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 And all of a sudden the 12K NAM shows that little stripe of snowfall here similar to what the GFS has been showing.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Can't say why, but the evidence is that CoD only shows 20 ensemble members, whereas sites like WeatherBell shows the 30 from the FV3. I have to thank you, because I am officially a WeatherBell subscriber Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FamouslyHot Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: I have to thank you, because I am officially a WeatherBell subscriber Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Don't tempt me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Don't tempt me!That $25/mo is worth it... Cause now I get the 6 and 18z ECMWFSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 All of this moisture and 99% of it is rain east of the mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12Z GEFS drops the hammer for most of us at least getting a dusting.Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Afraid escarpment areas have flooding issues on the horizon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 A few long range thoughts. I believe early to mid January will be favorable for a winter storm or 2 for the mid-Atlantic and north...and same for all of the east coast including our forum for mid to late January as enhanced convection should begin to move out of Indonesia during the 2nd week of January, improving the pattern over Western Canada / Eastern Alaska. I would say that the chances of a large and widespread winter storm for our forum to be much higher than normal for mid-January to early February. Time will tell, we can revisit down the road. Here is today's Euro Ensemble Mean for days 10-15... 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, griteater said: A few long range thoughts. I believe early to mid January will be favorable for a winter storm or 2 for the mid-Atlantic and north...and same for all of the east coast including our forum for mid to late January as enhanced convection should begin to move out of Indonesia during the 2nd week of January, improving the pattern over Western Canada / Eastern Alaska. I would say that the chances of a large and widespread winter storm for our forum to be much higher than normal for mid-January to early February. Time will tell, we can revisit down the road. Here is today's Euro Ensemble Mean for days 10-15... Thanks Grit. Do you think the -NAO hangs around that long until the pacific improves? Another month? I was hoping the +EAMT would do work earlier and improve the pacific first of January, but it doesn't look like that's the case. Feel like we're on borrowed time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 If you're outside of the mountains. I can guarantee you will not see token flakes. But depending on how this storm works out. Maybe a comma head setting up over the mountain range. Mountain ranges get hit hard from Se upslope flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 So not even a flurry here north of RDU? I wouldn’t be shocked if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 HOLY SMOKES THE HRRRSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 It popped an ULL Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: It popped an ULL Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk The ull been there. Just signs that the mountain folks will get hit hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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