BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 I think if you understand pattern recognition for this part of the country, the fundamentals are all there for something to happen. Whining about the lack of 300 hr storms should be best left to the banter thread. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 4 hours ago, magpiemaniac said: Not going to lie. I do like the trends with the 06z GFS though. And I DON’T like the trends with the 12z GFS. I’m going to walk away and stop model hugging. A pessimist is never disappointed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: And I DON’T like the trends with the 12z GFS. I’m going to walk away and stop model hugging. A pessimist is never disappointed. Ensembles definitely the place to be for now. Swings are far less violent. GFS is whiplash inducing at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Main takeaway right now is how active it looks in long range. It may be all rain but it won’t be dry/boring. But we need to dry out some, very wet year. I feel like warm pacific sst’s causing this active pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 It is going to be frustrating watching all this energy constantly feed in from the pacific just to see cutters and clippers, but patience is key. Also, I would really not pay too much attention to the details in the long range GFS, because it has a hard time adjusting to the impending SSW event in accordance with good high lat blocking. Even with the best pattern we can ask for, a well positioned system can be tough to come by in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 9 hours ago, SUNYGRAD said: Not much with EURO ensembles for central NC--I hate this. We shall see this afternoon. One member (#41)---from 00Z December 20----the most I saw from the 50 members. Most of the others show very little. This #41 will skew the ensemble averages. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-carolina/m50_snow-depth-in/20201227-0600z.html. Man it must really stink to live in that bubble of NEGA and Western upstate; those poor souls! Oh... wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 To hour 78, front is a hair slowerSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 17 hours ago, BullCityWx said: I think if you understand pattern recognition for this part of the country, the fundamentals are all there for something to happen. Whining about the lack of 300 hr storms should be best left to the banter thread. The bolded: Right!? This is the first winter in a very very long time that I’m actually excited about. Will it come to fruition? We live in the south and only time will tell, but I’m happy there will be opportunities as we head into the heart of winter instead of what we’ve experienced the last couple of years. The italic: Agreed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 The bolded: Right!? This is the first winter in a very very long time that I’m actually excited about. Will it come to fruition? We live in the south and only time will tell, but I’m happy there will be opportunities as we head into the heart of winter instead of what we’ve experienced the last couple of years. The italic: Agreed So far the temps have been great this month. Worked outside the last two days taking down and putting up a horse fence. mid 40’s and cloudy. Works for me. This game is all about the wait round here. Going into my like 20th winter season on these inter webs. All we have is time in the SE. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I am just an observer, no met. But the appearance to me is the models have backed off the cold a good bit. It does not seem to be as strong or far reaching , hence the absence of snow being projected outside the mountains. It looks like the Pacific stream has grabbed control and we have the west to east movement of the La Nina again dominating. The two or three chances between here and the 1st seem to have left the building for anything south and east of the Appl. Somebody is going to see 3-5 inches of rain in N Georgia for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 50 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said: I am just an observer, no met. But the appearance to me is the models have backed off the cold a good bit. It does not seem to be as strong or far reaching , hence the absence of snow being projected outside the mountains. It looks like the Pacific stream has grabbed control and we have the west to east movement of the La Nina again dominating. The two or three chances between here and the 1st seem to have left the building for anything south and east of the Appl. Somebody is going to see 3-5 inches of rain in N Georgia for sure. Temperatures (for NC) still look below normal to me throughout most of the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 yep where is the moisture with the incoming cold, same old, cold and dry or warm and rain. Threading a needle is hardly the word trying to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, Tacoma said: yep where is the moisture with the incoming cold, same old, cold and dry or warm and rain. Threading a needle is hardly the word trying to get snow. When was the last time the needle did not need threading around here. Around here meaning non mountain areas like NE ga, Upstate SC, Foothills NC and beyond. All we do is knit around here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Outside the mountains, Christmas snow isn't happening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Outside the mountains and some of Tennessee and Virginia and all of West Virginia and Ohio and most of Pennsylvania, Christmas snow isn't happening. FYP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 When was the last time the needle did not need threading around here. Around here meaning non mountain areas like NE ga, Upstate SC, Foothills NC and beyond. All we do is knit around here. Lol. Amen. I have a full linen closet!!!. Pro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Outside the mountains, Christmas snow isn't happening. I have lived here since 1996 and before that in Virginia Beach since 1973 and have never had a white Christmas. Missed it in 1989 by 50 miles and by a few hours in 2010. Still hoping that one year I will see it but never hold my breath for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 40 minutes ago, yotaman said: I have lived here since 1996 and before that in Virginia Beach since 1973 and have never had a white Christmas. Missed it in 1989 by 50 miles and by a few hours in 2010. Still hoping that one year I will see it but never hold my breath for it. I have seen them outside of NC and once in North Carolina. It was Christmas morning 1999 in Southern Pines/Pinehurst when a surprise inch fell from an ocean effect streamer off of southeastern VA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 12z CMC has a southern stream wave that tracks from central/southern California to Texas Dec 28-31, with snow and ice deep into TX and surface low in NW Gulf 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I'll be pretty depressed if something doesn't produce from Dec 31st-January 5th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 GFS was slightly (and I mean a fairy sneeze) more favorable for us on 12z from 6z. The low is 2mbs stronger and the front is slower to progress. The low is still in NC at hr78 as opposed to West Virgina at 6z hr84 and 10/20 GEFS ensembles still give some folks outside the mountains (including the SC low county) flakes. All is not lost yet, tiny details like this as we get closer can make a difference.This is the 12z mean, even if nothing sticks, flakes on Christmas is the rarest thing we can have down here in the SE that isn't a 73 redux.Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 That 850mb gradient over western Tennesse is insaneSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 7 hours ago, Looking to the skies said: I am just an observer, no met. But the appearance to me is the models have backed off the cold a good bit. It does not seem to be as strong or far reaching , hence the absence of snow being projected outside the mountains. It looks like the Pacific stream has grabbed control and we have the west to east movement of the La Nina again dominating. The two or three chances between here and the 1st seem to have left the building for anything south and east of the Appl. Somebody is going to see 3-5 inches of rain in N Georgia for sure. The pattern developing late Dec into Jan is close to being a very good one. It looks full of 50/50 lows, split flow, southern stream waves, and negative Arctic Oscillations. The one thing I'd like to see more of is what you've touched on here which is a bit more amplification into Western Canada and Alaska to give us a little more cold air. The pattern of descending highs from Siberia into East Asia should continue the subtropical jet feed for several weeks and we should continue to see temporary +PNA spikes (there is a large Siberian High that peaks at 1076mb on Dec 29 on today's GFS). Anthony M has indicated that in order to get larger and more sustained ridging into Alaska and Western Canada we'll need to move the MJO / tropical convection out of Indonesia / Maritime Continent, and he thinks we may see that occur as early as the 2nd week in Jan. That's obviously way out there, but something to look for. Regarding ENSO, the west to east pattern you mention that we're in is really more indicative of a -AO/El Nino pattern. As I'm learning more and more, having El Nino type patterns during La Nina and La Nina patterns during El Nino really isn't that uncommon as subseasonal factors can overwhelm typical ENSO seasonal patterns at times. Anyway, here is the 500mb pattern that has occurred for Dec 1 to Dec 20. The PNA has been positive every day so far this December (though not always strongly so), which is El Nino like. Also, you can see here on this chart of 200mb wind anomalies, that since Dec kicked off, the subtropical jet stream along ~30N has been stronger than normal (orange/red colors), and the polar jet stream along ~60N has been weaker than normal (blue colors)...that's very representative of a -AO / El Nino regime. As others have mentioned, it takes many things to align to get a good storm down here, but we're not far off as we go forward into January. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, griteater said: 12z CMC has a southern stream wave that tracks from central/southern California to Texas Dec 28-31, with snow and ice deep into TX and surface low in NW Gulf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 39 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I'll be pretty depressed if something doesn't produce from Dec 31st-January 5th. Yes, looking at the 12Z GFS, that appears to be our next legitimate shot with a east coast storm showing up during that timeframe and lots of southern stream energy. On a side note, how about a 964MB low crashing into Alaska on Christmas! That'll make Santa's ride a bumpy one..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Around the 28th is going to be interesting for the mountains. Cold air is borderline but models are starting to see a storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 We all know the windshield wiper effect, we still outside 48 hours Even the Euro was slower with the low and front, and a slightly better cold push. )I am not wishcasting either, just observing what I saw on Pivotal) Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, griteater said: That’s exactly what this pattern can produce. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 This is insaneSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, BullCityWx said: That’s exactly what this pattern can produce. I don't post much anymore but do still keep up with model runs during winter and I agree 100%. It doesn't always work out for us in the south so no guarantees but the players are on the field. It's been a while...LOL! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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