FLweather Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 56 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: I'm just gonna allow myself to enjoy this for a bit before I go back to reality Enjoy. 18z gfs for you. Weak retreating HP in Canada. Great Lakes low. 18z gfs has been in the funny brownies tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Bullseye at 250+ hours out. What could go wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 hours ago, FLweather said: Enjoy. 18z gfs for you. Weak retreating HP in Canada. Great Lakes low. 18z gfs has been in the funny brownies tonight. Pretty accurate run when you look at that warm nose changing it all back to rain as it departs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Gfs para keeps the southern stream pretty active. Almost like a train. 6 chances of rain between now and Christmas. Sadly no cold air around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 hours ago, FLweather said: Gfs para keeps the southern stream pretty active. Almost like a train. 6 chances of rain between now and Christmas. Sadly no cold air around. My yard here in the triad is just mush. And I live on the top of a hill too. Too late in the season for any sun to dry things out. And the rain events, while reasonably spaced, are large events. Cant say I have ever had mud on my shoes after putting up Christmas lights. I would be quite happy with a dry December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 I guess no one has looked at the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 13 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I guess no one has looked at the Euro? Congrats Ga and NC! Can’t get the cold air over the mts for the upstate, so lock it in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 I guess no one has looked at the Euro?I thought it was fun but I really doubt it will be replicated in future runs. Happy to be proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 The euro isnt as amped this run(also it's coming in super weird on weatherbell) but does appear to have snow from about a rough line from Columbus, MS to Birmingham to Atlanta to Charlotte. Somehow the snow line skips over the entire upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: The euro isnt as amped this run(also it's coming in super weird on weatherbell) but does appear to have snow from about a rough line from Columbus, MS to Birmingham to Atlanta to Charlotte. Somehow the snow line skips over the entire upstate. Wonder if all the data didn't come through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Wasnt much to see on the 12z Euro. Seasonally cool through the end after Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Considering that it's still out there, the difference of the models. GFS Para, GFS, CMC, RGEM, Icon all show the same wave. Just different evolutions If the northern stream would slow down allow more interaction. Possibility of something forming. But that wave that drops from the NW to TX/OK roughly 96hr to 120 looks kind of intriguing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Something is brewing next week. Will it be ice, snow or a frigid rain? Stay tuned for tomorrow’s edition of how the models run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Something is brewing next week. Will it be ice, snow or a frigid rain? Stay tuned for tomorrow’s edition of how the models run Got to love the first true Winnie run of the season. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, strongwxnc said: Got to love the first true Winnie run of the season. . I worry about anyone who can not spell weenie. I’ll be watching you. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 5 hours ago, FLweather said: Considering that it's still out there, the difference of the models. GFS Para, GFS, CMC, RGEM, Icon all show the same wave. Just different evolutions If the northern stream would slow down allow more interaction. Possibility of something forming. But that wave that drops from the NW to TX/OK roughly 96hr to 120 looks kind of intriguing. I agree that the day 5 wave could be intriguing! Would need the wave to dig deeper (which it has been trending in that direction since yesterday) but even if we get the precipitation to fall, I do not think there is enough of a cold air source behind it for snow anywhere outside of the mountains. Second wave is VERY interesting this far out for now. Excited to see how it evolves on the models tonight and tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 23 minutes ago, jburns said: I worry about anyone who can not spell weenie. I’ll be watching you. Hopefully Winnie will bring us some honey! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 My local forecast for Winston has a 70% chance of a frozen mix next Friday. I guess I'm a Winnie too! #Winniesunite 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 I really like the looks of the wave coming through on Wednesday. CMC and Euro hinting at a classic CAD wedge event and all models have the mid levels pretty cold behind the Monday morning wave. Definitely something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 50 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I really like the looks of the wave coming through on Wednesday. CMC and Euro hinting at a classic CAD wedge event and all models have the mid levels pretty cold behind the Monday morning wave. Definitely something to watch. Uh oh. We have a Burrel siting. Winnies will be on full alert now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Whatever next week is fits neatly into the same category of the Monday system. It has upside, may be worth some token stuff, but a lot of things need to break in the right direction for it to be anything more than that. I would pay attention to how much the associated S/W digs/cuts off and if it keeps the integrity of that cut-off through the SE on today's model runs- some positive developments there would be cool. Generally anything progged to put snow down in Oklahoma and moving laterally warrants at least a lazy eye for our Carolina folks. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 36 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Generally anything progged to put snow down in Oklahoma and moving laterally warrants at least a lazy eye for our Carolina folks. So true. Worth a watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 The Monday setup doesn't look to be ideal to me with HP still over the Manitoba province. But as that HP system moves into a more somewhat favorable area we need to watch the S/W moving out of the Rockies on Tuesday. Right now the 12z GFS progresses this into a Miller B like storm system on Wednesday. However if the energy is able to dig further south that could yield something in the SE. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 The 12z Euro is confirming my thoughts... for now. Wednesday looks like a better set up for something, particularly in the CAD favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 hours ago, jjwxman said: The 12z Euro is confirming my thoughts... for now. Wednesday looks like a better set up for something, particularly in the CAD favored areas. Probably ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 5 hours ago, ILMRoss said: Whatever next week is fits neatly into the same category of the Monday system. It has upside, may be worth some token stuff, but a lot of things need to break in the right direction for it to be anything more than that. I would pay attention to how much the associated S/W digs/cuts off and if it keeps the integrity of that cut-off through the SE on today's model runs- some positive developments there would be cool. Generally anything progged to put snow down in Oklahoma and moving laterally warrants at least a lazy eye for our Carolina folks. 2 hours ago, jjwxman said: The Monday setup doesn't look to be ideal to me with HP still over the Manitoba province. But as that HP system moves into a more somewhat favorable area we need to watch the S/W moving out of the Rockies on Tuesday. Right now the 12z GFS progresses this into a Miller B like storm system on Wednesday. However if the energy is able to dig further south that could yield something in the SE. We shall see. For me I’d be more inclined to put my eggs in one basket for the Wed system, at least for my direct area. Any time HP sitting up top the LP does not make it as far north and east and ends up transferring. Even if WAA overcomes shallow cold, still problematic for sleet/ZR. Any type of wintry precipitation this year would be a huge boost, as last year was just a complete debacle in every facet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Probably ice. I agree 1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said: For me I’d be more inclined to put my eggs in one basket for the Wed system, at least for my direct area. Any time HP sitting up top the LP does not make it as far north and east and ends up transferring. Even if WAA overcomes shallow cold, still problematic for sleet/ZR. Any type of wintry precipitation this year would be a huge boost, as last year was just a complete debacle in every facet. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSchew Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 EPS looks nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I'm a big fan of -AOs and -NAOs, but this consolidation of blue anomalies from East Asia to Alaska is not a good sight for getting cold down into our region (and most of the lower 48 as well). This is from the EPS Mean in 5 day increments from days 4 to 15. Maybe the one redeeming quality is that it consolidates some serious cold in NW Canada to potentially dislodge down the road. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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