FLweather Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Looking at the 18z gfs. I've come to a conclusion. That this will be a double barrel low. Considering how the models run and over all set up. Definitely going to get cold next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 On 11/23/2020 at 8:36 AM, BullCityWx said: We're moving to NW Durham County(edge of the city) and hoping that makes a difference for us. I still remember that event a few years ago where you had snow at your house, I had sleet in Davidson and it was just raining in Huntersville. Yup. Goes to show how thin that r/s line is sometimes. Always noticed how @NC_hailstorm 's obs always bested mine. I got too envious so how I have to invade his territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 10 hours ago, BornAgain13 said: Very nice to see that +PNA!! Even more nice to see a -NAO that lasts more than a week! It's been nearly 10 years that we had a remarkable -NAO of any kind during winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Talk about differences between the models. But the Gfs and Canadian are worlds apart on the second system. 2 system looks pretty stout. Severe weather threats for FL and GA. Snow in TX, LA, MO, AR, TN, MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 The gfs was soooooo close to phasing the Friday system 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Tomorrow has a reasonably decent chance of being as cold as any day we saw all of last winter. I dont know if that is an endorsement of what it is to come this December or an indictment on how awful last year was for us. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 2 hours ago, BullCityWx said: Tomorrow has a reasonably decent chance of being as cold as any day we saw all of last winter. I dont know if that is an endorsement of what it is to come this December or an indictment on how awful last year was for us. The latter... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: The latter... Hopefully we don't zero out on snow this winter out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Had a friend that said Birmingham got some flakes today. MPING has the Atlanta suburbs seeing some flakes. Wouldn’t be surprised some pretty widespread token flake action in the Carolinas tonight but if you want to see it time to get that coffee brewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Had a friend that said Birmingham got some flakes today. MPING has the Atlanta suburbs seeing some flakes. Wouldn’t be surprised some pretty widespread token flake action in the Carolinas tonight but if you want to see it time to get that coffee brewing. I was starting to anticipate this post. Temps are plummeting nicely across the foothills. I imagine some of the Triad viewing area to the northwest will certainly see a few flakes. But I would be quite surprised to see anything sneak into Winston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 17 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Had a friend that said Birmingham got some flakes today. MPING has the Atlanta suburbs seeing some flakes. Wouldn’t be surprised some pretty widespread token flake action in the Carolinas tonight but if you want to see it time to get that coffee brewing. I've thought the same. Noticed a couple times on gfs. Early morning showers possibly a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 It was like this for about 4 hours in the NE Suburbs of Atlanta IMG_87398420.MOV IMG_104176482.MOV 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just missed an I-40 winter storm this run on Day 11. It's when our indicies are all mostly peaked in our favor so it's possible it could have legs. -NAO, -AO, -EPO and a neutral PNA. If the indicies keep looking how they've looked, I think it could be our first real shot of the winter, somewhere around the 11-15th of the month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 hour ago, BullCityWx said: Just missed an I-40 winter storm this run on Day 11. It's when our indicies are all mostly peaked in our favor so it's possible it could have legs. -NAO, -AO, -EPO and a neutral PNA. If the indicies keep looking how they've looked, I think it could be our first real shot of the winter, somewhere around the 11-15th of the month. Brings back memories of just 2 years ago , when we got smacked with 12-18" of snow on December 8-9th I believe it was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 This is definitely interesting heading into the middle and latter part of the month. While NAO/AO/PNA are all forecasted to head towards a more neutral signal towards the middle of December, I'm hoping this could mean the tropospheric polar vortex heads south allowing for more arctic air intrusion towards the second half. 12z GFS returns our current +PNA/-NAO/-AO scheme at the end of the run, which will likely change but is encouraging nonetheless. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Euro has had first snow shower potential for two runs in a row now for much of the southern/western piedmont coming up on Tuesday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Euro has had first snow shower potential for two runs in a row now for much of the southern/western piedmont coming up on Tuesday. It has the potential to be a cute little appetizer. The upper air temps are there, surface temps are kinda blah. Rates dependent set-up. What’s new? A lot of things still have to break right. If that shortwave diving in from the lakes comes in further from the rest/digs a little more, there might be some healthier precip. We’ll see. Winter!! We’re back baby! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 46 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: It has the potential to be a cute little appetizer. The upper air temps are there, surface temps are kinda blah. Rates dependent set-up. What’s new? A lot of things still have to break right. If that shortwave diving in from the lakes comes in further from the rest/digs a little more, there might be some healthier precip. We’ll see. Winter!! We’re back baby! Here’s to hoping! It’s nice to at least be seasonal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckfever2 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6 hours ago, BullCityWx said: Can anyone post the latest run of the euro showing snow and the Piedmont? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 18z GFS very bullish with the moisture over the Carolinas Tuesday. Definitely wetter. Too bad the pieces couldn't come together further west. Tries to close off. Would be a classic Miller A. Looking at the soundings for the most part cold and moist enough in the DGZ all the way to about 2500-2000 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 11 minutes ago, FLweather said: 18z GFS very bullish with the moisture over the Carolinas Tuesday. Definitely wetter. Too bad the pieces couldn't come together further west. Tries to close off. Would be a classic Miller A. Looking at the soundings for the most part cold and moist enough in the DGZ all the way to about 2500-2000 ft This is actually very close and has continued to trend wetter/more phasing. It would not take much to make this setup work. It’s also interesting to note that this would be on the anniversary of the last major winter storm for most of the area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 The 500mb low over New England is a good sign for day 4. This will back up the flow and promote a cutoff/more negative tilting trough. Models have a tendency to play catch up in these scenarios. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Also , the 18z EURO has trended stronger with the storm next Monday/Tuesday , shows decent snows for most of Virginia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Going out on a limb here. Judging by the models. Too many moving pieces. But next week will feature another storm/ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Good winter 2020-2021 all. I sense some glomming. Is there something to glom on to? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: Also , the 18z EURO has trended stronger with the storm next Monday/Tuesday , shows decent snows for most of Virginia... Ha, it looks like Hkywx is in mid-season form with his model predictions...he's had a number of good ones over the years. There are 3 separate shortwaves involved here and the 12z Euro didn't quite phase any of the 3, while this latest 18z runs phases them all together into a cutoff. Snow map here is thru the 1st half or so of the storm for SW VA and the northern mtns 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Looking out in the long range, after this period of +PNA / Western North America ridging, here's a possible path that may give us or the mid-atlantic another storm threat... 1. Western ridge retrogrades west to the west coast or far east Pacific 2. One or 2 storms eject out of the SW on a track from northern NM to NYC in the Dec 12-15 timeframe. Ideally, the last system along this track would wind up strongly over the Northeast (with some Scandinavia > Greenland ridging kicking in). Cold air fills in behind. 3. Follow-on system would then kick out of the southern plains into colder air over the SE/mid-Atlantic in the Dec 15-18 timeframe. 4. Post Dec 18, it looks like we may warm up with negative height anomalies settling into Alaska 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Hiya grit! Long time no snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 0z GFS looking better than 18z... more phasing which means more precip. 850s look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I mean boundary layer is pretty warm but this is an interesting look. System phases much sooner and further west. Not a bad look at all. Still missing the cold at the surface but one would think flakes would be flying for at least a period somewhere in the piedmont with this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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