Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Even better 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Euro is still saying there’s still a chance...

 

 

[eyewall]

This is exactly what I thought would happen. The pattern would become much more favorable when it was too late.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

52 minutes ago, eyewall said:

This is exactly what I thought would happen. The pattern would become much more favorable when it was too late.

Yep. Why oh why does it wait til Deep spring to get Troughy?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

They often say don’t plant until after Mother’s Day. This year, it might be a better to wait til Memorial Day. 
 

 

[yotaman]

9 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

They often say don’t plant until after Mother’s Day. This year, it might be a better to wait til Memorial Day. 
 

 

Looks like much of NC has a chance of seeing temps down in the 30's next weekend.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Keep it coming!

 

[Upstate Tiger]

So I sat in on a Emergency Mgt call at the office today focused on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the forecaster said there is increasing data to suggest that we will be in a weak La Nina by fall resulting in a more active hurricane season.  Unfortunately I can't post since it was a commercial site.  Not only would that correlate to a potentially more active hurricane season but wouldn't be good news for SE winter weather (typically).    

[RT1980]

4 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

So I sat in on a Emergency Mgt call at the office today focused on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the forecaster said there is increasing data to suggest that we will be in a weak La Nina by fall resulting in a more active hurricane season.  Unfortunately I can't post since it was a commercial site.  Not only would that correlate to a potentially more active hurricane season but wouldn't be good news for SE winter weather (typically).    

Nothing new winter wise!  Hopefully hurricane season will spare most!

[mackerel_sky]

Blockbuster winter incoming! Weak La Niña, that will some how act like a raging nino, and -NAO will be non existent, even though modeled to happen at 7-10 days , all winter! 

[jburns]

On 5/6/2020 at 3:54 PM, Upstate Tiger said:

So I sat in on a Emergency Mgt call at the office today focused on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the forecaster said there is increasing data to suggest that we will be in a weak La Nina by fall resulting in a more active hurricane season.  Unfortunately I can't post since it was a commercial site.  Not only would that correlate to a potentially more active hurricane season but wouldn't be good news for SE winter weather (typically).    

Ah yes, the oft talked about but seldom seen SE winter weather. Old men talk of it at their early morning McDonalds coffee meetings but most younger folks think it is nothing but a myth. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Upstate Tiger]

On 5/11/2020 at 10:56 PM, jburns said:

Ah yes, the oft talked about but seldom seen SE winter weather. Old men talk of it at their early morning McDonalds coffee meetings but most younger folks think it is nothing but a myth. 

Hey, I am one of those old men.  I was just telling my grandson the other day about one of our epic winters of the past.  He looked at me skeptically and said "Sure Poppy.  I guess next you will tell me that the Weather Channel used to talk about the weather, MTV actually played music videos and people used to go to stores to buy stuff."  Kids today, they can't even remember when Clemson sucked at football.

[Billypg70]

On 5/13/2020 at 2:24 PM, Upstate Tiger said:

Hey, I am one of those old men.  I was just telling my grandson the other day about one of our epic winters of the past.  He looked at me skeptically and said "Sure Poppy.  I guess next you will tell me that the Weather Channel used to talk about the weather, MTV actually played music videos and people used to go to stores to buy stuff."  Kids today, they can't even remember when Clemson sucked at football.

You had me till the very last sentence.

We used to have epic winter's.

It's sort of rare now if we get more than 6 inches even NW of 85.

I have loved this very cool spring.

I'm an old cheapskate now and look forward to saving on the cooling bill.

Hopefully from some of the posts today we can forestall the hot weather a few more days or longer.

[jburns]

7 hours ago, Billypg70 said:

You had me till the very last sentence.

We used to have epic winter's.

It's sort of rare now if we get more than 6 inches even NW of 85.

I have loved this very cool spring.

I'm an old cheapskate now and look forward to saving on the cooling bill.

Hopefully from some of the posts today we can prolong the hot weather a few more days or longer.

.

forestall?

[olafminesaw]

Wonky

[Solak]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Wonky

 

Yeah, the models have been showing a cutoff low on the heels of the 'tropical' system next week.

 

[Solak]

Trending dryer and dryer here in central NC. GFS has gone from over 3.5" to less than a half inch now in the past 3 runs. The cutoff isn't looking as potent and is more open (IMO), and is further displaced to the N over VA

It's been dry here. No precip in the last 7 days.

[Billypg70]

On 5/13/2020 at 11:06 PM, jburns said:

.

forestall?

Thank you,

You are correct.

 

[Met1985]

6 hours ago, Solak said:

Trending dryer and dryer here in central NC. GFS has gone from over 3.5" to less than a half inch now in the past 3 runs. The cutoff isn't looking as potent and is more open (IMO), and is further displaced to the N over VA

It's been dry here. No precip in the last 7 days.

The Euro looks much different than it had. Placing tge center over WNC this last run.

[Solak]

Guess it'll be a wait and see deal. Here's what RAH says today.

Thereafter, the closed low will simply linger over the Mid-Atlantic 
region through much of the mid-week period.  While it appears that 
our area may benefit from the dry slot wrapping around and into the 
closed low, the low center will be close enough that any wobble 
south may quickly result in increased rain chances for our area, so 
it appears worthwhile to keep at least low-end PoPs in the forecast 
for a good part of the midweek period.  

[BornAgain13]

On 5/15/2020 at 1:15 PM, Solak said:

Trending dryer and dryer here in central NC. GFS has gone from over 3.5" to less than a half inch now in the past 3 runs. The cutoff isn't looking as potent and is more open (IMO), and is further displaced to the N over VA

It's been dry here. No precip in the last 7 days.

Look again.... the EURO and other models are trending back to a real wet week....

[Solak]

Saw that. I'll take it, without any flooding, of course. Dust is flying around these parts. Very noticable when people are mowing, or the farmers working the fields.

[magpiemaniac]

17 hours ago, Solak said:

Saw that. I'll take it, without any flooding, of course. Dust is flying around these parts. Very noticable when people are mowing, or the farmers working the fields.

The last measurable rain I had IMBY was 0.1” on May 5.  (Before that was 1.7” on April 30.)  I’m reluctant to waste my well on stupid grass, but I did run the sprinklers early yesterday.

[wncsnow]

Euro shows a deluge and what would be big flooding in the foothills and western piedmont 

[Solak]

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Euro shows a deluge and what would be big flooding in the foothills and western piedmont 

 

That's a lot of wet!

[Iceagewhereartthou]

3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Euro shows a deluge and what would be big flooding in the foothills and western piedmont 

Seriously hope that doesn't happen. I've had enough heav ugh rain and flooding. Go somewhere else please.

[wncsnow]

2 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Seriously hope that doesn't happen. I've had enough heav ugh rain and flooding. Go somewhere else please.

Today's run looks about the same 

[Solak]