BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Wow said: Did I miss anything? Yes! We need your play by play in the coming model runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Wow said: Did I miss anything? The GFS hates us and the NAM loves us. The Euro is stuck in a time warp black hole somewhere in the middle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Cold temps going north too, or we still good? It's a package deal Mack - precip north / cold air north. You and I went from being right were we want to be with the 12z NAM, to yikes, too amped with the 18z. Great for the folks north of us though. Let's see what happens going forward. Need the big high pressure to come thru 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Honestly I feel better that the GFS isn't showing much. If it was the NAM I would be more worried... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Some positives for the upstate with this system: 1. We aren't relying on a wedge front to arrive for low level temps. Typically when we're waiting for a wedge front it's delayed. All the models have a brisk wedge front blowing through during the day on Wednesday. As such, the low level cold air feed is established well out ahead of this storm. Another positive, models often miss dew point depressions/dry air when the wedge is in place, as it will be on Thursday for the upstate. 2. We aren't relying on rapidly crashing 850mb-900mb temperatures from northwest flow as the storm arrives. The models have this air entrenched in our area and after wetbulbing gets most of the upstate to freezing or below on Thursday at these levels. Might this level be too warm for snow anyways? YES! But it won't be because the mountains have blocked it's advancement. Which is a battle we always lose. Some negatives: 1. Several models show a lee-side minima for precipitation. I think this is b/c they have northerly low-level flow on the west side of the mountains, causing some subsidence at that surface as air drops over the peaks. (Even though we have Northeasterly low level winds in the upstate, it appears there's a zone near the mountains that may be affected by downsloping. Especially in the NC foothills. 2. It appears the southerly push from waa around 750mb is so robust on the NAM that it sends a warm nose over the upstate flipping us over to sleet/rain. The upstate needs to hope the NAM is a little too aggressive in this regard,(which it probably is since it's on the extreme end of guidance, but you never know how hard that North trend is gonna hit!) 3. Some models are developing quite a coastal storm Thursday afternoon, if this consolidates quickly we could find ourselves in a precip minima between the initial frontogenesis forcing and the coastal low, (we've seen it happen before). Conversely, the icon swings a nice backside band from the coastal low through the upstate Thursday night, if that's true the coastal will have helped us. (very skeptical on our chances of this happening) Final Thoughts: I have little concern on whether the upstate gets appreciable precip. I am also not concerned about boundary layer issues given the Northeasterly low level winds forecasted well in advance of our storm. My biggest concern at this moment is mid-level temps if this thing really gets cranking like the 18z NAM showed. (I know it's early so don't take this as a prediction, these are just my gut feelings today). 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 18z Bufkit is in: 11.5" GSO 8" RDU(still snowing at 20:1 by 84) 7" DAN 5" FAY 1.4" HKY 1" CLT 0" GSP 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I love coming in here to say “I don’t know if a NW trend is possible” then logging back on to see the NAM has kicked a solid 80 miles north. NAM is a best case scenario where the energy out west *isnt* held back. Stay tuned to see if this becomes a globals vs high resolution situation 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Some positives for the upstate with this system: 2. It appears the southerly push from waa around 750mb is so robust on the NAM that it sends a warm nose over the upstate flipping us over to sleet/rain. The upstate needs to hope the NAM is a little too aggressive in this regard,(which it probably is since it's on the extreme end of guidance, but you never know how hard that North trend is gonna hit!) . That is what kills GSP and CLT on bufkit, they get SNRAPLed to death. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 SREF mean for snow in GSO has moved today from .11 to .21 to .55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 burrel - I have a hard time buying a precip minimum just southeast of the Apps and a jump to the coast with this one. Just my opinion. I know we see that sometimes, but the trajectory of the precip and forcing is going to be more west to east in a continuous manner. The precip minimum and jump to the coast is more common when we have a wave approaching and crossing the Apps from a NW trajectory. Sure the eastern areas may get a precip boost, but I don't think a jump to the coast is in the offing here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 precip looks a bit further north on the gfs out to 69 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 GFS vort energy leaning further west.. good trends good trends 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 23 minutes ago, griteater said: It's a package deal Mack - precip north / cold air north. You and I went from being right were we want to be with the 12z NAM, to yikes, too amped with the 18z. Great for the folks north of us though. Let's see what happens going forward. Need the big high pressure to come thru I'd take the 18Z all day for MBY. I didn't move to Mooresville for nothing! lol. I got NAM'd! Although I don't buy it, it's interesting that the configuration of the precip seems consistent with the EPS, just heavier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 The 18z GFS didn't quite cut it , but it does look better than 12z , with a pretty significant expansion more northwest than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Gfs caving. Can’t say I’m shocked. Precip field much more expansive to the NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Now we just need someone to give us updates on the 18z EURO and 18z EPS in a while... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 The 850 0 line crashes to about SAV as the low forms off N.C. coast! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 FYI a new thread was started for our blizzard late in the week Now go look at the end of the 12z GFS where it has our next storm to kick off March - pattern actually ain’t too bad then 4 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckfever2 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 44 minutes ago, griteater said: FYI a new thread was started for our blizzard late in the week Now go look at the end of the 12z GFS where it has our next storm to kick off March - pattern actually ain’t too bad then I know it is way early but can anyone post this... I am interested to see what it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 45 minutes ago, Buckfever2 said: I know it is way early but can anyone post this... I am interested to see what it looks like You can look here GFS and see the latest run. He's right. The pattern isn't bad, but we're heading into March so it would take something special to get some wintertime magic #itsnotoveruntilitsover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Headlines - Spring put on hold / Eyewall gets hit again. It's February 1989 all over again 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just yalls luck. Blow through Nov, Dec, Jan then winter decides to show up mid/late Feb to March. Wonder if yall should be concerned April and May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, FLweather said: Just yalls luck. Blow through Nov, Dec, Jan then winter decides to show up mid/late Feb to March. Wonder if yall should be concerned April and May? Yeah that's the problem, for most the "cold" is too little for anything good by March. Looks like an NC winter incoming, everybody else just more of the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 23 minutes ago, griteater said: Headlines - Spring put on hold / Eyewall gets hit again. It's February 1989 all over again Just in time for my vacation flight out of Asheville... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FatherNature Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Too early to talk about the March 4th-6th storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 8 hours ago, FatherNature said: Too early to talk about the March 4th-6th storm? Please, no snow in Asheville during the SoCon basketball tournament. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 3 hours ago, griteater said: Like clockwork every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 13 hours ago, FatherNature said: Too early to talk about the March 4th-6th storm? Now showing 60's and 3/4" rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Doesn’t melting snow create latent heat? I know that the evaporational cooling will offset any latent heat created but #2 isn’t correct, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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