BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 12z Cmc Not near as good as 0z was. Looks like the Low was closer to the coast but their wasn't much moisture this time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Canadian is back to being more suppressed I would not say it was more suppressed. The LP location remained nearly identical, if not a tick further North, but the precip was not nearly as expansive. All things considered, still not a bad run imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Is it possible Thursday becomes an event like Feb 8 for N Ga? There is enough cold if the moisture is not suppressed below. Or is we just being played. :-). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 GFS suites hr84Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 CFS or nothing. All in. Lol. No really, NAM's our only hope. Sigh. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: I would not say it was more suppressed. The LP location remained nearly identical, if not a tick further North, but the precip was not nearly as expansive. All things considered, still not a bad run imho. The northern stream energy dropping down is limiting the extent of the moisture on the northern edge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: GFS suites hr84 Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Much less snow. Ouch, that is not a good trend for snow lovers. Still time to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 On the 12z Canadian, there's much less upper level (500mb) dynamics involved because of the handling of the vort moving out of the Rockies into the Plains Thursday morning. 0z GEM kept it rolling southeast and there was a degree of phasing of the system, leading to the NW side of our coastal low blossoming with precip. 12z GEM takes the Rockies vort to the ENE (rather odd-looking) and you get little to no interaction with it and our coastal system. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 hr108, bunch of suites held back the vort until the coldest air seeped in Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I ain't impressed. Better hope for a last minute tweak to make this more than just more token flakes (at least for W NC). But it could be one of those overperformers... just had one for N GA! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 To me it’s pretty solid that the CMC had a worst case scenario in how it handled the the Rockies energy (held it back) and the run still popped a coastal that gave NE NC a respectable event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Wow said: I ain't impressed. Better hope for a last minute tweak to make this more than just more token flakes (at least for W NC) Yeah I agree sadly. Ironically when we actually need a moisture laden system, it just doesn't look like we're going to have it. Western NC I think is on the outside looking in. Eastern NC and what happens with the coastal is an interesting question imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I ain't impressed. Better hope for a last minute tweak to make this more than just more token flakes (at least for W NC). But it could be one of those overperformers... just had one for N GA!For the mountains these overrunning events have worked out before. Below 1500’ might struggle with temps though imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 UK is squashed, its not trending our way at the moment. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: UK is squashed, its not trending our way at the moment. Right where we want it 3 days out! But really, the NAM is good with thermals, ie the 2-8 storm, but how is it with actual precip locations?? I mean all the models had precip in the same general area on 2-8, NAM was the snowiest and was right on thermal profiles 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just wanted to chime in here and say hello. I’ve lived in Ohio my entire life and am being relocated to the Charleston area for work so excited to now chat with you guys here in the SE forums. Been a member since 2011 on this site but obviously the snowstorm and tornado posts are going to drop a bit lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Well the Euro is not suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Oh hai Euro! Precip continues to trend back, still unsure about temps, but they look to be in mid-upper 30s across the region at these time frames 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Next frame: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Has the Euro had a tendency to be too warm at the surface lately? I know it was with the 2/8 event. 850s are right at freezing and crashing as the precip arrives, but it's in the low 40s at the surface. If that was more in the 36-38 range I'd feel a lot better about evaporational cooling being enough to overcome the boundary. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Still some time to go in this one , but with the GFS/UKMET/EURO showing something very minimal, it's hard to go against them ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Looks like Kinston to New Bern, NC is the place to be for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 54 minutes ago, wncsnow said: UK is squashed, its not trending our way at the moment. Much more north this run. It’s correcting itself before game time. I liked the euro for this area too. Much improved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: Oh hai Euro! Precip continues to trend back, still unsure about temps, but they look to be in mid-upper 30s across the region at these time frames The building I'm in is not allowing me to have a good look at the maps, but it seems as if you are correct on the temps, and the dp appears to be lower also. I thought I had seen a little stronger "wedge" signature starting at hr 48 too? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Still some time to go in this one , but with the GFS/UKMET/EURO showing something very minimal, it's hard to go against them ... 3 days prior to go time, this is what storms that hit us look like. It's far from perfect, but we're in the game here. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 At this range is it better to trust the short range models for temps/rates, while we look at the globals to keep the overall pattern? Obviously we have a little ways to go before we get into the 3km NAM, RGEM, HRRR range, but what should we be looking for in regards to the pieces we need in play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, griteater said: 3 days prior to go time, this is what storms that hit us look like. It's far from perfect, but we're in the game here. I need a 100 mile shift northwest before Thursday Morning. I’m thrilled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I need a 100 mile shift northwest before Thursday Morning. I’m thrilled Is that sarcasm or are u being for real? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Buyer beware of the Pivot precip type map on the Euro. The map says rain for Raleigh, but the sounding says snow (very, very shallow above freezing layer at the surface which is likely too warm)...and the sounding output at the bottom right says snow...granted, precip is light 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Bottom line after today's runs is that a coastal low appears to be our best chance now and coastal lows do have a tendency to trend NW. Modeling will bounce around for the next few days but the players have entered the field from all camps and we are finally able to track something inside 4 days. Not every run is going to be better than the last one but I'd say overall the trends today have been encouraging. Obviously the CMC, which had a beautiful run last night, wasn't as good but it still had the same idea. Starting to see agreement 4 days out which to me is as good as we could ask for in this timeframe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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