FallsLake Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 RAH is staying cautious, but mentioning the possibility of some light snow (especially for folks down east): Temperatures should remain nearly stationary on Thursday with only a few degrees of warming possible thanks to the presence of plentiful clouds and consistent CAA downsloping surface flow. Strong 1045mb Canadian surface high pressure will continue to settle southeast, helping to drive a secondary surge of cooler and drier air into central NC during the late afternoon and evening hours. This continues to occur in conjunction with a re-resurgence of mid to upper-level moisture in response to a developing coastal low out ahead of an approaching mid-level shortwave. The 00z ECMWF and its ensemble members, which have tended to remain the less excited solutions of its sister models in past runs, have come into better agreement with the run to run consistent GFS/GEFS and CMC. Now, just about all synoptic models at least hint at the possibility for a few snow flakes at the back edge of the system. With the 00z suite, models have trended to show a stronger and geographically closer coastal cyclone development Thursday evening at the leading edge of the mid-level trough, allowing for a greater draw of Atlantic moisture inland while also increasing the cold air entrainment processes into central NC from the NW. As a result, the chances of some low to no impact snow flurries have increased a bit, ironically mainly in the non-climatologically favored areas along and east of the interstate 95 corridor. Even with the most recent increase in snow flurry possibilities, several limiting factors will need to be overcome to see even trace accumulations at the surface. This includes and is not limited to (1.) Overcoming above freezing surface/near surface temperatures; and (2.) Overcoming the dry air in place at the surface. As of now, even the cooler modele`s wet bulb temperatures remain above freezing across our forecast zones which increases our confidence in little to no accumulations likely. Still, can`t rule out some flakes able to fall through the mid-level dry layer to the surface, primarily during the 21z Thursday through 03z Friday time frame where moisture and cold air should meet up briefly. After 03z Friday, low and mid- level drying should become too much for the weakening upper-level saturation in the favored ice crystal growth zone to overcome as we progress further into the overnight hours. For now, have mentioned a few locations of no-accumulation -RA and/or -SN in the weather grids across the northeastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain during said time- frame to account for the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I think cautious is an understatement. If you read between the lines, they pretty much think it will take a miracle, especially with the limiting factors that still need to be overcome. They make it seem a lot less likely than all the other discussion on here. Based on all the recent model runs, I agree with that forecast, particularly with regards to temperatures. The low development in tandem with the high will definitely increase cold air surge into NC, but I don't think it will be enough for central NC. Eastern NC looks like the honey hole, as of now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 33 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I think cautious is an understatement. If you read between the lines, they pretty much think it will take a miracle, especially with the limiting factors that still need to be overcome. They make it seem a lot less likely than all the other discussion on here. Based on all the recent model runs, I agree with that forecast, particularly with regards to temperatures. The low development in tandem with the high will definitely increase cold air surge into NC, but I don't think it will be enough for central NC. Eastern NC looks like the honey hole, as of now. To be fair, they are usually very conservative until the last minute. And this is still a low probability event, in terms of being impactful. If you start to see the Euro come onboard in the next couple of cycles, they'll start to bite a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 6z GEFS Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I know it's the 84hr NAM, but it looks like great for Upstate SC. 850's around -5c with surface dew points in the low 20's and heavy precip crossing the state line from Georgia. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I am optimistic that my snow drought ends Thurs night, might even pick up a decent 2-3" event out of it....the downside is my onion grass/weeds are at least 6" tall in spots, I hate when my weeds stick out of my nice snow covered yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 The NAM goes ice cold here at 850mb across NE GA and northern SC as steady precip breaks out on Thursday, and the warm layer is very shallow near the surface. This is encouraging to see for those areas and north given, iMO, the NAMs likely better ability to resolve the arctic airmass. In terms of precip, it's going to be a long week me thinks. There are reasons on both sides as for whether the precip climbs north to where significant precip is realized. We need to see the shortwave interaction out west to work properly to get the needed return flow for moisture. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 WRAL is currently forecasting light wintry precip possible, mainly east of 95. Mentioned ground temps would be too warm for any impacts. The recent model run of their future cast came in while they were telling the forecast and it shows even less precip for central NC (jumped SE again).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 The ICON jumped west in a huge way at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 RWI went from 0.01 to 0.85(rough estimate) for the event from 0z to 6z on ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, downeastnc said: I am optimistic that my snow drought ends Thurs night, might even pick up a decent 2-3" event out of it....the downside is my onion grass/weeds are at least 6" tall in spots, I hate when my weeds stick out of my nice snow covered yard. I think I'd be optimistic as well. I think if we have an area that does really well, it'll be somewhere between Greenville and Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I know it's the 84hr NAM, but it looks like great for Upstate SC. 850's around -5c with surface dew points in the low 20's and heavy precip crossing the state line from Georgia. After scolding myself for even considering the NAM in lala land, I absolutely agree that it looks pretty darn good. I can’t bring myself to dismiss it because it’s handled this fast flow pretty well in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherzim Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 The NAM goes ice cold here at 850mb across NE GA and northern SC as steady precip breaks out on Thursday, and the warm layer is very shallow near the surface. This is encouraging to see for those areas and north given, iMO, the NAMs likely better ability to resolve the arctic airmass. In terms of precip, it's going to be a long week me thinks. There are reasons on both sides as for whether the precip climbs north to where significant precip is realized. We need to see the shortwave interaction out west to work properly to get the needed return flow for moisture.So you dont thk upstate sc is out of the running for some wintry precipSent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, Weatherzim said: So you dont thk upstate sc is out of the running for some wintry precip No, but it would be silly for most any of us to cancel/quit at this point anyway given the setup here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 6 hours ago, SnowDawg said: Glad to see it not look so suppressed with the moisture. Just hoping it's underestimating the cold at 850. Need that Sw out west to consolidate more as it drops south and east. As depicted currently by the models. Its stretched out from the Rockies to the EC. That's causing the suppression not the HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 if the 00z euro had a bit more precip northward into nc i think we would have seen a 1-2" system, model just didn't have enough precip to spit out snow at the sfc level even though soundings looked near ideal for snow. would much rather have this issue than our usual fear of the warm nose screwing us. give me cold upper levels and ill worry about precip, especially in this pattern. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 We also have to remember this thing isnt even on shore yet. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I know I will be ready to position myself in any potential jackpot zone should anything materialize. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billypg70 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 51 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I know it's the 84hr NAM, but it looks like great for Upstate SC. 850's around -5c with surface dew points in the low 20's and heavy precip crossing the state line from Georgia. That is a thing of beauty. And the coldest levels right over Greenville County. That could accumulate quickly, Instead of the usual burning off over half of the system just bringing the BL to freezing. And at this point no model can be dismissed. In fact the NAM handled the last storm with the most accuracy even at long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 43 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I think I'd be optimistic as well. I think if we have an area that does really well, it'll be somewhere between Greenville and Raleigh. Seems like we had one like this back in 2002 or 3 maybe that had a leeside trough enhanced area over the foothills and a late popping coastal that left like a foot on the OBX with less in between but still I think every county in the state recorded at least 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 as the 12z nam runs, just look at the northward shift in precip for weds before our event in the last 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: as the 12z nam runs, just look at the northward shift in precip for weds before our event in the last 24hrs. The old NW Shift as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: as the 12z nam runs, just look at the northward shift in precip for weds before our event in the last 24hrs. It either needs to stick around as the cold air works in, or delay it a couple hours for those of us in the western areas without a lot of elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: as the 12z nam runs, just look at the northward shift in precip for weds before our event in the last 24hrs. Wouldn't really call it a shift north. Models playing catch up on the over running precip. H5 looks roughly the same. Compare to earlier model runs having the right precip gradient at the TN, MS, AL, GA lines. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 The NAM at 84 is exactly where I want it right now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 12z NAM shifted south this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, BullCityWx said: The NAM at 84 is exactly where I want it right now. But it looks like it might be to far south for my area and yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 All you have to do is look at the rain event for this Tuesday/Wednesday and how it’s shifted north and west in last 24 hours. You want this south of your locale right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: All you have to do is look at the rain event for this Tuesday/Wednesday and how it’s shifted north and west in last 24 hours. You want this south of your locale right now. Amen to that. Right now, I need a 100 mile shift northwest. We all know how this is most likely going to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: The NAM at 84 is exactly where I want it right now. Nice thing is that the precip on the northern part of the shield isn't meager 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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