Orangeburgwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 850mb level Gulf Swirl (think it is a HP since it barbs are clockwise), doesn't extend down to the surface, but I wonder if that will have an impact... 12z and 18z also showed it and was stationary through all 3 runs, but is it something to watch?Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Subtle tweaks... Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 hours ago, griteater said: 850mb zero degree line works south from Charlotte at 12z Thu to Columbia at 03z Fri as precip on the mean moves thru GFS looks juicy, temps might be sketchy... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 850mb level Gulf Swirl (think it is a HP since it barbs are clockwise), doesn't extend down to the surface, but I wonder if that will have an impact... 12z and 18z also showed it and was stationary through all 3 runs, but is it something to watch?Sent from my LML212VL using TapatalkThat image almost looks like a traditional CAD signal. Has anything changed with the HP up north that could cause that?Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, mackerel_sky said: GFS looks juicy, temps might be sketchy... It isn't juicy and it's pretty warm at the surface 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: That image almost looks like a traditional CAD signal. Has anything changed with the HP up north that could cause that? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Just pulled soundings for my area in N GA and had an east wind at the surface. Also a typical CAD/Wedge signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 NAM soundings for N GA mountains at HR 84. Surface wet bulb is below freezing. Just somehow someway need some sufficient moisture to run into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 HP went from 1046 at 18z to 1047 this run... FWIWSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 NAM soundings for N GA mountains at HR 84. Surface wet bulb is below freezing. Just somehow someway need some sufficient moisture to run into it. This was mine... Cold rainSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 NAM and GFS seem to be even further apart than they were at 18z with the handling of the vort at H5. I know the dangers of the NAM at the end of its range, but it treated me so well in this last event that I am going to hug it until the bitter end if I have to lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Yeah, GFS was a scraper again. Meanwhile, the CMC has more of a traditional looking Miller A running from the NE Gulf to well off Hatteras...probably some significant snow totals over NE NC, but I don't have a map for it as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 The 0z CMC is an awesome run! Would love to see the others have a good run like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Very close to Miller A'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 0z CMCSent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Close up view...Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, griteater said: Hopefully this isn't a fluke run and the CMC is on to something... really would love to see the EURO and UKMET jump on board... hard to go against the EURO , although its been far from perfect... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 UKMet moved north, but it has been way suppressed. 00z run gets precip only as far north as Atlanta to Wilmington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Hopefully this isn't a fluke run and the CMC is on to something... really would love to see the EURO and UKMET jump on board... hard to go against the EURO , although its been far from perfect... CMC dropped a significant wave from the northern stream down, tracking from the Great Lakes into E NC....an unlikely scenario, but who the heck knows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 GEFSSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: GEFS Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Looks down from earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Looks down from earlierYeah, but more ensembles with at least a .1" on the ground, it is almost March, take what we can getSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 00z NAM 32k vs. the 00Z GFS If these were babies, they would be twins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, HWY316wx said: 00z NAM 32k vs. the 00Z GFS If these were babies, they would be twins. Go look at the 500h vort images to see where the true difference between the two lies. They seem all too similar at the surface, but the mechanisms behind the madness are far from the same 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 ECMWF trended toward the CMC, but not as cold. Looks like the low is closer to the coast. Temps are an issue, as always. Good overall trends, just need a little more cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 ECMWF trended toward the CMC, but not as cold. Looks like the low is closer to the coast. Temps are an issue, as always. Good overall trends, just need a little more cold air.Good luck with that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: ECMWF trended toward the CMC, but not as cold. Looks like the low is closer to the coast. Temps are an issue, as always. Good overall trends, just need a little more cold air. Good luck with that. Lol Ji why you up in here trolling the main disco? Get back to tracking patterns in the MA forum 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Glad to see it not look so suppressed with the moisture. Just hoping it's underestimating the cold at 850. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 While the pattern is not optimal, I must point out that areas of NE GA got 7 inches and parts of SC 3+ in one of the most hostile patterns on 2.8.20. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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