oconeexman Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Isn’t the CMC usually the coldest model? I think it is during CAD events? Yes but this isn't a CAD event..at least not a classical Cad with a High in position northeast. This is a sprawling midwest high. It's got the gusto to cool us all enough just a matter if moisture gets here too early. Nam and cmc hold a back and dig it a little more from what I see which is gonna allow this cold to seep in just in time...really threading a needle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Wow, 18 members with snow IMBY and 8 with over 2 inches. Problem is a big chunk will probably be wasted trying to cool the surface. I wish there was just a bit more separation behind the cold front so we could clear out the cloud deck and radiate down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Yes but this isn't a CAD event..at least not a classical Cad with a High in position northeast. This is a sprawling midwest high. It's got the gusto to cool us all enough just a matter if moisture gets here too early. Nam and cmc hold a back and dig it a little more from what I see which is gonna allow this cold to seep in just in time...really threading a needle Yeah, I think we would need an Early Thursday start or late night Thursday start, for maximum cold availability!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 GEFS gives about Durham east a 50% chance of at least 1”. 30% chance of 3”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 If anyone needs a reminder about not throwing in the towel too early...look at today's rain across ga..been raining all morning here when Most of the models had very little or none at all here in the past 72 hours. Indeed go back and see how poorly the models handled today's rain over the past few days. Cold air supply might be lacking for some but i sure wouldn't get get too discouraged over precip amounts this early for Thursday. Feel like for those in nc stand a good chance...soundings show a cold profile with a really shallow surface warm layer on most guidance that probably would be overcome with decent precip. Upstate might see a changeover at some point but Think this is probably a classic case of the mountains screwing ga by blocking caa. Not buying the Canadian showing precip into friday. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Just now, BullCityWx said: GEFS gives about Durham east a 50% chance of at least 1”. 30% chance of 3”. I would take that all day long.. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Lookout said: If anyone needs a reminder about not throwing in the towel too early...look at today's rain across ga..been raining all morning here when Most of the models had very little or none at all here in the past 72 hours. Indeed go back and see how poorly the models handled today's rain over the past few days. Cold air supply might be lacking for some but i sure wouldn't get get too discouraged over precip amounts this early for Thursday. Feel like for those in nc stand a good chance...soundings show a cold profile with a really shallow surface warm layer on most guidance that probably would be overcome with decent precip. Upstate might see a changeover at some point but Think this is probably a classic case of the mountains screwing ga by blocking caa. Not buying the Canadian showing precip into friday. Very reminiscent of last week today. The models have just been vastly underestimating these weak shortwave driven events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Canadian has a max of 14.7 at New Bern. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Looks like the models are shifting from an overrunning event , to a coastal storm? Or I guess it could be both? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Looks like the models are shifting from an overrunning event , to a coastal storm? Or I guess it could be both?It will be an overrunner too, need it to bring down the cold column to the surfaceSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 I'm hoping and thinking the evolution of this storm is far from over... 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 32 minutes ago, Lookout said: If anyone needs a reminder about not throwing in the towel too early...look at today's rain across ga..been raining all morning here when Most of the models had very little or none at all here in the past 72 hours. Indeed go back and see how poorly the models handled today's rain over the past few days. Cold air supply might be lacking for some but i sure wouldn't get get too discouraged over precip amounts this early for Thursday. Feel like for those in nc stand a good chance...soundings show a cold profile with a really shallow surface warm layer on most guidance that probably would be overcome with decent precip. Upstate might see a changeover at some point but Think this is probably a classic case of the mountains screwing ga by blocking caa. Not buying the Canadian showing precip into friday. I think NAVGEM has precip around till Friday morning, if I looked correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 51 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, I think we would need an Early Thursday start or late night Thursday start, for maximum cold availability!? As you and I both know being on the lee side and so close the mountains, late arriving cold air is a concern. But with that said, a 1047 could do the trick. I just have my doubts for those of us who don’t benefit from late blooming coastals in a fast flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Canadian ensemble mean is further north with 2" just about over Roanoke Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Canadian ensemble mean is further north with 2" just about over Roanoke Rapids. How does it look for southern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Euro quite suppressed still the most suppressed model with the UK 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro quite suppressed still the most suppressed model with the UK As long as it’s cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: As long as it’s cold! Dewpoints in the single digits after all of the moisture is gone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Outside of the one 18z run yesterday the EPS has been pretty locked in, not sure I'd bet against it at this point. Hoping to be wrong though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Outside of the one 18z run yesterday the EPS has been pretty locked in, not sure I'd bet against it at this point. Hoping to be wrong though. Can you elaborate on which region you are speaking about? I assume it is Georgia based on your tag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Does the ECMWF have snow anywhere in the Carolinas? Looks highly suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Just now, SnowDawg said: Outside of the one 18z run yesterday the EPS has been pretty locked in, not sure I'd bet against it at this point. Hoping to be wrong though. With respect to precip, this one is tough to figure out. Some of the modeling is bumping north, which happens, say, 8 out of 10 times regardless of the specifics of the setup. Yet, the two models generally regarded as the best at 500mb (Euro and UKMet) want to dive the northern stream energy too far east preventing moisture from surging into the region 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Does the ECMWF have snow anywhere in the Carolinas? Looks highly suppressed. Pivotal has the Euro - https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2020021612&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, griteater said: With respect to precip, this one is tough to figure out. Some of the modeling is bumping north, which happens, say, 8 out of 10 times regardless of the specifics of the setup. Yet, the two models generally regarded as the best at 500mb (Euro and UKMet) want to dive the northern stream energy too far east preventing moisture from surging into the region I’d honestly have it suppressed and whiff, if it’s not gonna be snow! I don’t think anyone wants anymore rain! We’re good on that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Can you elaborate on which region you are speaking about? I assume it is Georgia based on your tag? Really just the region as a whole. It has been very consistent with the suppressed look. 8 or so good members but out of 51 those aren't great odds. Most of the region outside of Coastal NC/SC currently has less than a 30% probability of QPF greater than a tenth of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Ha, WPC is mostly favoring a GFS/CMC blend at the moment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Just now, griteater said: Ha, WPC is mostly favoring a GFS/CMC blend at the moment Hard to blame them as many times as they’ve been burned by the euro lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Hard to blame them as many times as they’ve been burned by the euro lately. ...Developing positive tilt Western trof with winter precip in Southern High Plains Wed.. ---Prior Discussion--- Further west, as the tail end of the initial shortwave swings out of the Rockies into the Great Lakes on Tuesday; reinforcing shortwave energy over-tops the amplifying Pacific Ridge dropping into the developing larger scale trof over the West by Wed. This wave, in combination with emerging shortwave energy out of the east-central Pacific (under the Pacific ridge, as well as lingering frontal zone across TX into the Southern High Plains will set up the next system with the potential for wintry problems by late Wed into Thursday. Here, there is much more substantial spread, keying on the timing of the the central Pacific shortwave/moisture transport through the Desert Southwest into the area of concern. Here the ECMWF shows the greatest timing differences being quite slow with the wave, mainly as it lost some energy to the northern stream along the western side of the developing Pacific ridge, which delays the energy advancing as well as dropping the focus further south. So as the shortwave from the northern stream drops, it does not phase/amplify delaying its ejection into the Plains. The 12z GFS and 00z CMC are much faster with this shortwave capture and start to break out increased QPF across the southern High Plains/TX by 00z Thursday. Even though it is typical of the GFS to have a fast bias, the similarity in timing presented by the 00z CMC and UKMET suggest less or no influence of the ECMWF in a preferred blend at this time. While not favored due to typical deeper/over-amplified solution through the West; the 12z NAM is also faster like the GFS/CMC with this energy, providing some confidence, as a stronger more amplified system should be slower. Confidence in average in a 12z GFS and 00z CMC/UKMET blend for this feature. 19z update: The 12z UKMET is very strong rotating the Pacific shortwave under the northern stream positive tilt trof across the Southwest late Wed, this is likely too strong/too fast. The CMC remains on par with the prior run and the initial preference. The 12z ECMWF while still weak, shows better timing of the weaker wave through the Southwest. So will still favor the 12z GFS/CMC but will have some ECMWF inclusion in the preference. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 ICON looking canadian-ish now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 ICON looking interesting for the first time in days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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