Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, snowblzchance N CLT said:

Thanks for the analysis! So in future runs what should we be looking for to help amplify those disturbances without loosing that beautiful dome of high pressure?  Is it that the angle of approach of the northern stream diving in is too far east creating a dry WNW flow instead of more of WSW flow like in earlier model runs?  I know we’re basically looking at squeeze play setting up along the thermal gradient between the NS and the Southeast ridge. Is it a matter of having that gradient setting up more WSW?

Yeah basically. We need that energy to dive in farther WSW as when it finally comes in toward Fri it is too late unless you are halfway to the Azores.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

50 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

The reason for the change is an eastward trend in the shortwave that drops in to help create lift. Compare:
The 24 hour change in the gfs shows a 500 mile shift East. Because of this, the shortwave has a more positive tilt and produces less moisture transport. Still a very potent setup and I don’t think it would take too many tweaks to show snow again, but this is a setback.

 

Good post. And am I correct in saying that this eastward jump (and resultant change in the angle of the trough) is also responsible for some warming of the western areas? 

[buckeyefan1]

9 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Good post. And am I correct in saying that this eastward jump (and resultant change in the angle of the trough) is also responsible for some warming of the western areas? 

Yes. What we are looking for is just enough “dig”  and just enough ridge to provide the convergence as the moisture slides across. Southern sliders are awesome things when all the players are in the right spot. 

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

ECMWF was still suppressed and less cold air aloft. It seems to be set on this setup. I am guessing all the GEFS and GEPS ensemble members suck as well. Anyone have those?

[mackerel_sky]

I thought cold was causing suppression? How is it not coming north, if colds not as strong?

[eyewall]

12Z GFES ENS members:
 

[buckeyefan1]

10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I thought cold was causing suppression? How is it not coming north, if colds not as strong?

The orientation of the trough being more positively tilted doesn’t allow for the moisture to get thrown back. 

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

26 minutes ago, eyewall said:

12Z GFES ENS members:
 

Quite a few smaller events, some medium level events. Really, better than I thought given the OP run. Most of the GEFS members have snow in NC. What does the ensemble mean look like? Either way, now we wait for the EPS. 

[Tacoma]

Yep those don't look bad at all. 

[SnowDawg]

EPS has maybe 5-6 members max with anything noteworthy in the SE. 

[eyewall]

19 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Quite a few smaller events, some medium level events. Really, better than I thought given the OP run. Most of the GEFS members have snow in NC. What does the ensemble mean look like? Either way, now we wait for the EPS. 

The mean has 1-2 inches across NC

[BornAgain13]

I roughly counted only about 6/50 EPS members with measurable snowfall for my area. Not very good odds at this point..

[buckeyefan1]

6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

That is hr384, that don't count

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Then you should have posted another day/time snapshot to explain why. Step up your game 

[Orangeburgwx]

Then you should have posted another day/time snapshot to explain why. Step up your game 

Simple, here is next week's threat, GEFS threw down a second snow storm in fantasy land at d13-14

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[buckeyefan1]

1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Simple, here is next week's threat, GEFS threw down a second snow storm in fantasy land at d13-14
 

Next time explain to begin with 

[burrel2]

A decent tick north on the 18z GFS. Another shift or two like that and we're in business.

[Orangeburgwx]

And here is the result for 18z

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[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

And here is the result for 18z

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Is the mean up or down from 12z in NC?

[Alfoman]

1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

And here is the result for 18z

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Damn this thread really did die after the last few model cycles, when it should absolutely not be. While looking at these could seem discouraging, the trends are subtle but where we want them to be in this time frame. This storm is five days away, and a suppressed look is not that bad of a thing to have at this point. From 6Z until 18Z on the GFS, we have seen the moisture slowly tick northward around 50 miles and in addition you can see the high in much better placement for cold transport from the NW compared to the last few runs. We do not get a thermal gradient threat very often for winter storms, but this is not time to give up. The players are still there and if we can get the energy to interact more with the northern stream like we see on the 18Z GFS then we still could be in business. Also I would air caution on just looking at snowfall outputs as the column above the surface is fairly cold (900 mb and above) and that would mix down with the right moisture levels. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

18Z Euro is back to the party. The way every system has over performed here this year I don’t see any reason why this one would be any different. 

[CaryWx]

yes 18z was better. will be interesting to see the 0z

[Southern Track]

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

18Z Euro is back to the party. The way every system has over performed here this year I don’t see any reason why this one would be any different. 

Can you elaborate brother?

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Any snow maps of 18z ECMWF?

[BornAgain13]

26 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

18Z Euro is back to the party. The way every system has over performed here this year I don’t see any reason why this one would be any different. 

Can you elaborate

[mackerel_sky]

7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Can you elaborate

The control run of the 18z Euro is posted in the TN forum! Looks like 3-8” across most/all of NC 

[CaryWx]

[griteater]

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

The control run of the 18z Euro is posted in the TN forum! Looks like 3-8” across most/all of NC 

So the 18z Euro only goes out to hr90, but the 18z Euro Ensemble goes out to hr144.  The control run is part of the ensemble, so it goes out to hr144.  Here's the snow map

[mackerel_sky]

1 minute ago, griteater said:

So the 18z Euro only goes out to hr90, but the 18z Euro Ensemble goes out to hr144.  The control run is part of the ensemble, so it goes out to hr144.  Here's the snow map

So this is a good step, correct?

[griteater]

Trend on last 3 runs of the Euro Ensemble Mean for Thursday aftn.  More precip to the north and warmer

[CaryWx]

Good step for the euro but be nice to also see the gfs come on board and euro sustain this in the 0z