oconeexman Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 25 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Got toe mighty! Gfs cmc and ukmet are all major hits for northern Ga/upstate sc. ukmet looks the best of them all at 144hrs! I like the way u talk! Hopefully euro comes back by sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Just now, Extreme NEGA said: 850mb temps look good too. Got to imagine the snow maps are underdone at this range right? I wouldn't say that because surface temps are a problem. You may waste a lot cooling the BL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Extreme NEGA said: 850mb temps look good too. Got to imagine the snow maps are underdone at this range right? Yea. Globals are keeping the surface too warm given the thermal profile. In fact they’re all showing a push of colder air at 925mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 16 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Every sounding ive looked at is saturated up to 250mb Thursday morning. Growing dendrites shouldn’t be a problem. I haven't looked at maps much yet, what is the timeframe looking like? As much as I like to see snow fall in the day we really do better with night snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: I haven't looked at maps much yet, what is the timeframe looking like? As much as I like to see snow fall in the day we really do better with night snowfall. Looks to be mid to late day thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 I would like the onset time to push further towards Thursday morning ideally to allow for some diurnal cooling as well as more time for CAA from the cold front that just passed. Starting around 10 pm Wed night, as others have mentioned, could result in wasting some snow on cooling the boundary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 If you average out the models it looks to me like snow would start in the upstate sometime around daybreak Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Here's the last panel of the ukmet. Vaild 7am Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, burrel2 said: If you average out the models it looks to me like snow would start in the upstate sometime around daybreak Thursday morning. Yeah you're right. I was reacting purely to the GFS, which looks a little quick. And that's probably my favorite start time, IF it can come in heavy enough and lock in those morning low temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Here's the last panel of the ukmet. Vaild 7am Thursday morning. Rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Here's the last panel of the ukmet. Vaild 7am Thursday morning. Is it cold enough in central NC for snow on the UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Is it cold enough in central NC for snow on the UKMET Last panel of the UKMET would be about 37 or 38 degrees in Central NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Best look of the year. Agreement and consistency between the models is huge and we are slowly gaining some agreement. Now we need to work on consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Is it cold enough in central NC for snow on the UKMET Yes, in fact, ratio's could be >10:1. Here's the 850mb temps at 7am Thursday. -7C over Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Is it cold enough in central NC for snow on the UKMET 850s would be cold enough though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Looks like the EURO will remain suppressed and dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Euro is the most suppressed which is not good at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Will be curious to see EPS. How did GEFS and GEPS look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Yep, EURO is a swing and a miss. Luckily it's on an island with that scenario. CMC/ukmet/GFS/JMA are in agreement against what the Euro is showing for now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Every other model trends away from cutting off the energy in the SW and the Euro, which was leading the charge, trends toward it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Yep, EURO is a swing and a miss. Luckily it's on an island with that scenario. CMC/ukmet/GFS/JMA are in agreement against what the Euro is showing for now. Which oddly was what what the euro was showing first. Very odd to see everything trend to the euro then the euro drop it. Ninja'd ^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Euro has a bias of leaving energy behind in the sw I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 16 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Yep, EURO is a swing and a miss. Luckily it's on an island with that scenario. CMC/ukmet/GFS/JMA are in agreement against what the Euro is showing for now. Hello! Mid-Atlantic dweller here...Now I'd caution against thinking the euro being on an island is a good thing. Last Friday it was on it's own showing a cutter a cutter up here...until all the other guidance caved to it the very next day, lol Not to say it definitely happens the same way, but...just something to consider! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hello! Mid-Atlantic dweller here...Now I'd caution against thinking the euro being on an island is a good thing. Last Friday it was on it's own showing a cutter a cutter up here...until all the other guidance caved to it the very next day, lol Not to say it definitely happens the same way, but...just something to consider! Definitely has me concerned. It's 5 day verification scores are incredible right now and we get to around 5 days out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 I would wait to see what kind of trend there is on the EPS before bemoaning surpression. Remember, we're still 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 27 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro is the most suppressed which is not good at all How much did you get on 2-8? And how is suppression not good 5-6 days out? It’s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: How much did you get on 2-8? And how is suppression not good 5-6 days out? It’s If this was an actual surface based LP storm in the gulf then I'd say suppression is a good thing because that's when we get our NW trends. But this is really just a thermal gradient pattern relying on SW flow to deliver moisture. Differences in the handling of the vort are what's causing the suppressed look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 EPS does not look good at all... Changes in the Euro suite from 12z yesterday to today are subtle, but they are significant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Looks like the euro bias of holding back the energy in the SW is in play here. Shocker that euro is on an island again. Brutal year for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Well the Euro killed this discussion for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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