burrel2 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Best I can tell the ukmet favors the EURO more than the GFS at 144hrs. ICON looks like it's setup for a monster storm at 180hrs as well. JMA doesn't leave a cutoff low behind in the Southwest. It appears the GFS is on the far end of guidance with that feature at the moment. Hopefully it's wrong. for the record, the CMC leans more towards the GFS in regards to the energy retrograding in to a closed low over the southwest before kicking east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 This appears to be the one for this winter. Enjoy everyone. 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckfever2 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 I don't know much about this stuff so forgive me if I sound a little naive but... Does it look like the cold will already be in place when the moisture arrive or, will it be a situation where it changes from rain to snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: Best I can tell the ukmet favors the EURO more than the GFS at 144hrs. ICON looks like it's setup for a monster storm at 180hrs as well. JMA doesn't leave a cutoff low behind in the Southwest. It appears the GFS is on the far end of guidance with that feature at the moment. Hopefully it's wrong. for the record, the CMC leans more towards the GFS in regards to the energy retrograding in to a closed low over the southwest before kicking east. 70 degree day the day before on the icon slams a backdoor front through and it’s probably snowing the next day. We’ve seen this movie before. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, Buckfever2 said: I don't know much about this stuff so forgive me if I sound a little naive but... Does it look like the cold will already be in place when the moisture arrive or, will it be a situation where it changes from rain to snow? It's too early to get into the specifics of it really but going off the latest Euro model I would not be surprised if it started as some rain down your way. It's still a week away so many changes going forward. Models are not in agreement as of right now but this afternoon's Euro run was a good start to what is hopefully a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 28 minutes ago, Buckfever2 said: I don't know much about this stuff so forgive me if I sound a little naive but... Does it look like the cold will already be in place when the moisture arrive or, will it be a situation where it changes from rain to snow? No worries on the question, but the reality is that it wouldn't be a fruitful exercise to ponder on that type of detail this far in advance. The most important thing IMO is for us to see a big, sprawling high pressure drop down out of Canada, delivering cold air. Most likely, the high isn't going to stick around very long, but the bigger/stronger it is, the slower it will be to exit. If we can get the good high pressure in place, then we look down south to see if we can time some SW flow and/or a wave in the southern stream to deliver moisture into the cold air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 No worries on the question, but the reality is that it wouldn't be a fruitful exercise to ponder on that type of detail this far in advance. The most important thing IMO is for us to see a big, sprawling high pressure drop down out of Canada, delivering cold air. Most likely, the high isn't going to stick around very long, but the bigger/stronger it is, the slower it will be to exit. If we can get the good high pressure in place, then we look down south to see if we can time some SW flow and/or a wave in the southern stream to deliver moisture into the cold airTbh the big, smothering 1040 high is one of the most promising features of this setup thus far . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Tbh the big, smothering 1040 high is one of the most promising features of this setup thus far . Yep , cause around the Southeast, we need the cold first then moisture... but not to cold , then it will be squashed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 GFS is still nada for the moment, but it will come around soon. Likely tonight's run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 18z GFS continues to hold the idea of holding the energy back. Oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Kiss of death...CJ just made a fb post about the threat already 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 29 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z GFS continues to hold the idea of holding the energy back. Oh well... At this range the gfs is not very reliable. As long as the doc holds on it's a threat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billypg70 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Kiss of death...CJ just made a fb post about the threat already Yes he is already explaining the setup and showing the Euro & GFS ensemble possible solutions. He said something that I'm sure most would agree board wide this is the best threat we've had this season. I doubt he'll be the KOD. He has some weenie in him and as a snow lover I Love it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Billypg70 said: Yes he is already explaining the setup and showing the Euro & GFS ensemble possible solutions. He said something that I'm sure most would agree board wide this is the best threat we've had this season. I doubt he'll be the KOD. He has some weenie in him and as a snow lover I Love it. I know he loves as much as we do..he's my fav on tv..was just beating Mack to the punch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherzim Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 I know he loves as much as we do..he's my fav on tv..was just beating Mack to the punch Mack gonna say cold rain Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 18z GEFS increased a little from 12Z 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Somebody extrapolate the 18z Euro!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 I can't believe it. WoW GSP Meanwhile, the new ECMWF keeps the boundary draped much closer to our region with a very positively tilted nrn stream upper trof and ridge supporting a continental high over the Plains that keeps the thickness gradient across our region. Precip on the nrn edge...across our fcst area...but would be falling into cold-enough air to bring some wintry precip. The fcst for Wed nite and Thursday splits the difference, keeping a 20/30 pct chance of precip with a p-type of mostly rain, but with a high elevation snow. As you can imagine, this part of the fcst may change quite a bit between now and then. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 When does the GFS come out? 11:30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, Extreme NEGA said: When does the GFS come out? 11:30? 1030 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: 1030 just started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 GFS appears to be down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 1 minute ago, bargainmusic said: GFS appears to be down? Yea what's the deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie_Williams Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 GFS running off of the NOAA site and took a big step towards the Euro.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 I Will take that look at this range 3 minutes ago, Ollie_Williams said: GFS running off of the NOAA site and took a big step towards the Euro. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Extreme NEGA said: I Will take that look at this range Very nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Lets see what the CMC has in store for us tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Looks like it's going to get squashed. I'm out. Got to catch the ZZZZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Nice step back in the right direction from the GFS. Would like to drive that frontal boundary just a tad further south before it stalls, but far too early for that level of detail. Given the pattern this is definitely the storm mode I'm hoping for. Stalled frontal boundary 100 miles or so south, with ample SW flow off the gulf, long duration event with no warm nose from an amped surface low. Given our lack of real cold air this year, I'd be scared of a big gulf low blasting us all with warm air. If it's gonna amp up, I hope it's late so it can get all the coastal folks and keep all of its warm air out over the Atlantic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 42 minutes ago, Extreme NEGA said: I Will take that look at this range 2 words: NW trend! Nice to see the GFS pick up on the Euros rain event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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