Lookout Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 hour ago, WeatherHawk said: yes, just a bit It's been Pretty ridiculous. Already have 0.30 with this first band...and based on upstream totals more than inch seems likely tonight. Which isnt huge news if not for the fact that most of the guidance was further north. Hrrr had my location getting less than 0.10 tonight. Not a good few days for the hrrr. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 12 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: So he's saying its a bit "moist"? Look at his facial expression. He's saying you can kiss this winter goodbye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 More of the same ahead. Low anomaly centers in Alaska and Iceland...what a winter (image from twitter @MJVentrice) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Baghdad now has more snow than RDU this season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Something under 240 for a lot of the board on the GFS. There have been several runs hinting at something in this timeframe. Interested to see what ECMWF thinks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 The 0z EURO CONTROL and 12z GFS look kinda similar for late next week.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Right now I'd put more "stock" in the ECMWF, especially with that mid-state wake county cut off. Almost looks like a rain-to-snow transition which hardly ever works out for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 What have we learned about D10 storms... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 28 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The 0z EURO CONTROL and 12z GFS look kinda similar for late next week. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk That is a triple bunner: 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: What have we learned about D10 storms... I don’t know about you, but I’m right at 40” of D10 fantasy snow. This winter has rocked on paper. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 I don’t know about you, but I’m right at 40” of D10 fantasy snow. This winter has rocked on paper.To bad it’s been all scissors then . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Apparently we have learned nothing about wishing our lives away 10 days at a time.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 17 minutes ago, IWC said: Apparently we have learned nothing about wishing our lives away 10 days at a time.. Terrible pattern, absolutely nothing supporting sustained cold. But something catches a 12 hour window at D10+ and gets shown on 1-2 model runs before turning into a MW cutter. Sigh... Onto severe season for me. Only way to get snow here is what happened in GA/SC the other day, something pops up in D3 range 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Terrible pattern, absolutely nothing supporting sustained cold. But something catches a 12 hour window at D10+ and gets shown on 1-2 model runs before turning into a MW cutter. Sigh... Onto severe season for me. Only way to get snow here is what happened in GA/SC the other day, something pops up in D3 range 2/8/20 says it can snow in a craptastic pattern! I mean 8”+ in NGA?? That’s like 300-400% of normal atleast! I think that’s about 800% of Wilkesboros total this year?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 hour ago, eyewall said: That is a triple bunner: I'll start a thread tomorrow.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveRDU Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 36 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 2/8/20 says it can snow in a craptastic pattern! I mean 8”+ in NGA?? That’s like 300-400% of normal atleast! I think that’s about 800% of Wilkesboros total this year?? And this also means that at some point, areas further north and east will cash in right????? Theory of atmospheric balance???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Pet peeve alert.... This is largely a board for weather enthusiasts. It gets very old when the flood of the same, tired, snide comments come in after someone posts a medium-range model map. I think everyone reading this board is aware a single run of a deterministic model (or single ensemble member) will likely never verify in the extended medium range. But what are people supposed to post? A picture of an overcast sky? The purpose of the board is to discuss whatever there is to discuss, and unfortunately for snow fans, medium-range snapshots are about all we've got. End of rant... back to your regularly-scheduled programming. 21 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, msuwx said: Pet peeve alert.... This is largely a board for weather enthusiasts. It gets very old when the flood of the same, tired, snide comments come in after someone posts a medium-range model map. I think everyone reading this board is aware a single run of a deterministic model (or single ensemble member) will likely never verify in the extended medium range. But what are people supposed to post? A picture of an overcast sky? The purpose of the board is to discuss whatever there is to discuss, and unfortunately for snow fans, medium-range snapshots are about all we've got. End of rant... back to your regularly-scheduled programming. Exactly! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: What have we learned about D10 storms... When most day 10 storms have showed up this year, they were only on the GFS , the fact that the Euro has it too, is slightly a better situation 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: When most day 10 storms have showed up this year, they were only on the GFS , the fact that the Euro has it too, is slightly a better situation Welp, Euro now has our D10 storm in Des Moines, Iowa. We need some help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml Let me save you the trouble of clicking: NAO - Not suitable for small children AO - Don't look Ethel....at lease moving toward 0 after this week PNA - See AO Given the horrific indices this winter, it's amazing we have gotten any frozen precip. at all in the SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: When most day 10 storms have showed up this year, they were only on the GFS , the fact that the Euro has it too, is slightly a better situation The Euro control run... 32 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml Let me save you the trouble of clicking: NAO - Not suitable for small children AO - Don't look Ethel....at lease moving toward 0 after this week PNA - See AO Given the horrific indices this winter, it's amazing we have gotten any frozen precip. at all in the SE. Given the above, not in "scientific" terms though highly accurate, NOTHING outside of D3 deserves any credence showing any sustained cold or a fluke snowstorm until proven otherwise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Terrible pattern, absolutely nothing supporting sustained cold. But something catches a 12 hour window at D10+ and gets shown on 1-2 model runs before turning into a MW cutter. Sigh... Onto severe season for me. Only way to get snow here is what happened in GA/SC the other day, something pops up in D3 range To be fair the Euro actually picked up the system from this past weekend quite a bit further out than that. I think 0z Euro on the 2nd was the first signs of snow in the interior southeast. It moved around a lot and the amounts went up and down after that, but it did at least pick up the "threat" at a decent lead time. But yeah inside day 3 is when things really solidified and all the guidance started to converge on the same solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1226866908479160323?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-3944355110867719083.ampproject.net%2F2001281851410%2Fframe.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Fun fact about February 1990, it was right in the middle of the longest snow drought on record here in the Triad. They may be onto something with this Arctic Oscillation thingy. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Gfs was on the last event from 8 days out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 4 hours ago, palmettoweather said: Something under 240 for a lot of the board on the GFS. There have been several runs hinting at something in this timeframe. Interested to see what ECMWF thinks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Nice to see both the GFS and Euro agreeing with at least the potential, would feel better if this was 4-5 days out though....still big high over eastern GL and low off the coast moving ENE is what we want..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billypg70 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 4 hours ago, msuwx said: Pet peeve alert.... This is largely a board for weather enthusiasts. It gets very old when the flood of the same, tired, snide comments come in after someone posts a medium-range model map. I think everyone reading this board is aware a single run of a deterministic model (or single ensemble member) will likely never verify in the extended medium range. But what are people supposed to post? A picture of an overcast sky? The purpose of the board is to discuss whatever there is to discuss, and unfortunately for snow fans, medium-range snapshots are about all we've got. End of rant... back to your regularly-scheduled programming. Great post and TY for ur contributions on this board. We have some great posters. Guys like Burrel2, Lookout, & wow. And there are countless others. I get why some are disappointed. But winter's not over regardless of how badly the indices have been. This is the Southeast and in some cases the deep south. I'd imagine the vast majority of snowstorms south & east of 85 from NGA to Raleigh happen during bad indices. Also the models are a tool and should never be the only thing that determines a forecast. To many novelist take each run verbatim. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 That system next Friday, 2/21 looks interesting and talked to an older man up here and he said that this winter reminded him of 1993...but I don't have the resources to 'fact-check' that...but I do remember March 1993...would welcome any resources to check that claim... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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