CaryWx Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, rowjimmy73 said: And early dismissal called for DPS, good call, even though winds and antecedent conditions not like Michael, this kinda rain with the upstream reports make for a scary looking day. If you get too much rain....row jimmy row! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 wake of the flood, laughing water.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion... ...Southeast... Widespread heavy rainfall is expected today across much of the Southeast with impressive moisture parameters in place. Both PWs (Precipitable Water) and IVT (Integrated Water Vapor Transport) are around maximum values for early February over the entire Southeast (it is quite impressive to see such a large geographic area with around record values). Thus it seems fair to say that from a moisture and moisture transport perspective you will not see a better setup this time of year than what this event will have to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Here is the Integrated Water Vapor Transport chart showing the large values / large arrows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Negative anomaly associated with the 500mb trough is over 5 standard deviations below normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 1:06 PM, bargainmusic said: Getting a mix of snow & rain on Stratford Road right this minute. Hoping for a change to all snow shortly! 3K NAM showing snow Saturday night 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 River City TV reports memorial dr in danville closed due to mudslide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 12 z GFS says, winter starts on the 13th, with back to back threats! Where the cold is coming from, we will worry about later! Giddy up! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Hi Res Nam says winter starts on Saturday for us Mack! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 12z GFS actually has decent HP's coming down for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 36 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: 12z GFS actually has decent HP's coming down for a change. Until next run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: Hi Res Nam says winter starts on Saturday for us Mack! If the NAM is our only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: If the NAM is our only hope Worked out pretty well last Friday.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 See some fall for a couple hours..hopefully Nam is on to it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 3 hours ago, burrel2 said: Hi Res Nam says winter starts on Saturday for us Mack! Don't bite burrel, don't let it suck you in. Stand strong my man. Actually would be nice to see, just not sure snow can fall twice for us (instead of lightning stricking twice!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 We're 210 hours away... Feels like a milestone this winter On the Canadian, SAME TIME 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 6z GFS juicing for tomorrow! Following the NAMs lead!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 22 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 6z GFS juicing for tomorrow! Following the NAMs lead!? Yeah...for a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 I know no one wants to believe it, but the 3K Nam, ICON and GFS show a decent snow event, not 5 days+ out, but tomorrow for NE Ga and the Upstate of SC (mostly mountains unless you truly believe the NAM). At worst, this looks interesting and some could get a nice little surprise. Seems the models juiced up the system on overnight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I know no one wants to believe it, but the 3K Nam, ICON and GFS show a decent snow event, not 5 days+ out, but tomorrow for NE Ga and the Upstate of SC (mostly mountains unless you truly believe the NAM). At worst, this looks interesting and some could get a nice little surprise. Seems the models juiced up the system on overnight runs. Well I am watching. Most snows here, at least, are not modeled or forecasted a week in advance. They pop up a day or two away or come out of the blue. Fingers are crossed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 34 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Yeah...for a cold rain. Thermal profiles are all snow for the northern upstate. Boundary layer will make it difficult to stick. But if we get any appreciable precip I expect it to fall as snow tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 The 0z euro mocks the gfs you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 56 minutes ago, NEGa said: Well I am watching. Most snows here, at least, are not modeled or forecasted a week in advance. They pop up a day or two away or come out of the blue. Fingers are crossed lol Yep..its weird honestly how that is usually the case. 50 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Thermal profiles are all snow for the northern upstate. Boundary layer will make it difficult to stick. But if we get any appreciable precip I expect it to fall as snow tomorrow. Models insist most of it is just north of here but I think its mostly snow as far south as here per soundings...assuming it doesnt arrive too late where surface temps are a problem. Hrrr as usual is too warm at the surface if there is as much precip as advertised. . Regardless it's close enough to drive too regardless. High resolution models showing some pretty decent returns on composite imagery some decent rates arent out of the question. Other than the mountains atlanta to Gainesville could be the winner as it arrives early enough for temps to be near freezing. Could just the nam naming us but the 12z 12 and 3km run showing up to 0.30 liquid now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 12z 3km NAM absolutely jackpots the Lake Lanier area. Looks like 1-3 inches could fall there tomorrow morning. Somebody should start the thread?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vman722 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Parents have a house up there on the north end of Lake Lanier in Gainesville. May have to make the trip up tonight. Models last night had me interested, seems like it's game on. Not expecting a whole lot but could be some real pretty scenery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 18 minutes ago, burrel2 said: 12z 3km NAM absolutely jackpots the Lake Lanier area. Looks like 1-3 inches could fall there tomorrow morning. Somebody should start the thread?? Just looks like it's coming through at the absolute worst time of day for the upstate. Needs to be early morning or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckfever2 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 57 minutes ago, burrel2 said: 12z 3km NAM absolutely jackpots the Lake Lanier area. Looks like 1-3 inches could fall there tomorrow morning. Somebody should start the thread?? Can you post that NAM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Light snow atm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Light snow atm Awesome man!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, Buckfever2 said: Can you post that NAM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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