Solak Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Brad Panovich Meteorologist · We have been upgraded to a high risk for Flash flooding for Thursday. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx 165 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 hours ago, griteater said: We’re not even getting into punt formation this winter. We’re throwing pick 6’s and getting strip sacked. Maybe we can pull a late fluke after a lot of warmth like Feb ‘89 And this is what happens when we recover the ball 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, Extreme NEGA said: If the dark red was snow accumulations, I promise you, it would be a huge bust! But rain, go big or go home! 7” or bust!! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 0z NAM is really going gang busters on the rain totals! All of that east of the mountains, in NC and SC, falls within a 24 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 hours ago, JoshM said: 0z NAM is really going gang busters on the rain totals! All of that east of the mountains, in NC and SC, falls within a 24 hour period. Thursday night-Friday morning? I have a decent drive that night from Charlotte heading east. Wondering if I should leave earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, RT1980 said: Thursday night-Friday morning? I have a decent drive that night from Charlotte east. Wondering if I should leave earlier? I would hold off... NAM has a tendency to go crazy on Precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 0z Euro has pretty healthy rainfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Dramatic increase in totals from the 12z run on Euro. That amount in that short of time here in the N GA Mtns just screams landslide threat over the next couple days with how saturated the soils already are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Dramatic increase in totals from the 12z run on Euro. That amount in that short of time here in the N GA Mtns just screams landslide threat over the next couple days with how saturated the soils already are. GSP did mention in a previous discussion that landslide threat will be legitimate. I just hope it doesn't hurt anyone!Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 The 6z models backed off a bit on rain totals. 2-4" has been a good forecast for a day or two now and still seems reasonable, although I wouldn't be surprised to see 6"+ somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 I guess were just going to ignore the 2/21 snow/ice storm for N.C.? That’s the money ball! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Remember when tomorrow was our next snowstorm? I jokingly said it would be a severe weather event and here we go. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 18z GFS with 12-16” of rain total through end of its run, in parts of NEGS, SWNC, NWSC! Just crazy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 42 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I guess were just going to ignore the 2/21 snow/ice storm for N.C.? That’s the money ball! Hahaha another 10 day plus event that will vanish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 205 PM Wednesday... By Friday morning, the cold front should have moved east and offshore of the Carolinas, so the bulk of the rain will have also moved east, but there will still be leftover showers with the upper trough moving through. Kept chance pops generally from Raleigh to the north and east, with areas to the north of Raleigh still having a slight chance of showers into the afternoon. Friday will be another windy day because of a tight pressure gradient, with wind gusts ranging from 30 mph across the Triad to 40 mph in the southeast across Sampson County. There will be a brief break in rain Friday night, but an upper level shortwave should bring a chance of showers Saturday afternoon across the Triad and most of the area Saturday night. Temperatures still look very marginal for supporting snow, and even if there were a few snowflakes, the ground should remain too warm to allow any snow to stick. High pressure will yield another short period of dry weather Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday morning. After that, low pressure will move over New England, dragging a cold front across the region. Behind the cold front, high pressure will attempt to build in from the north, but models are on the fence as to how far south the front will drop before coming stationary. Have continued chance pops Monday night through Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 The latest HRRR is crazy... showing 4.7" of rain through 4 pm tomorrow and still many hours of rain to go after that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The latest HRRR is crazy... showing 4.7" of rain through 4 pm tomorrow and still many hours of rain to go after that... Crazy weather, biggest since Michael potentially. Wishing DPS would call school, not going to be safe for the buses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 minute ago, rowjimmy73 said: Crazy weather, biggest since Michael potentially. Wishing DPS would call school, not going to be safe for the buses Michael was devastating for Danville. This wont touch that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Michael was devastating for Danville. This wont touch that.. It might not touch it but it will be close if the latest guidance is correct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, BornAgain13 said: It might not touch it but it will be close if the latest guidance is correct... Only has to come close, lots of infrastructure still not repaired down here and 5" would be very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: It might not touch it but it will be close if the latest guidance is correct... It won't be close. Wind gusted over 60 mph in Danville and it rained over 6 inches in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, wncsnow said: It won't be close. Wind gusted over 60 mph in Danville and it rained over 6 inches in 6 hours. Not talking about the wind , talking about the rain and flooding... latest guidance is suggesting 4-7" of rain near and around Danville... in 24 hrs or less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Not talking about the wind , talking about the rain and flooding... latest guidance is suggesting 4-7" of rain near and around Danville... in 24 hrs or less. Just a question? Don’t precip shields erode as they move. NWS is calling for +-5 for your area as of now. Could be wrong. I’ve seen pro Mets call for 1/2 of the accumulations of the models locally. Not to say your wrong but I would hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, RT1980 said: Just a question? Don’t precip shields erode as they move. NWS is calling for +-5 for your area as of now. Could be wrong. I’ve seen pro Mets call for 1/2 of the accumulations of the models locally. Not to say your wrong but I would hope so. Not really sure, I'm just going by what I've saw and the latest guidance... tomorrow is going to be rough either way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 24 minutes ago, rowjimmy73 said: Only has to come close, lots of infrastructure still not repaired down here and 5" would be very bad. The preceding river conditions were way different then. The water levels are much lower now and it would have to rain over 7 inches to even get to moderate flood. There will be some flooding but it is highly unlikely to be close to Michael. I was in Danville when it hit. 3 people were washed away and drowned by the flash flooding, the Dan River rose 20 feet in hours. People underestimate what a disaster it was for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 19 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The preceding river conditions were way different then. The water levels are much lower now and it would have to rain over 7 inches to even get to moderate flood. There will be some flooding but it is highly unlikely to be close to Michael. I was in Danville when it hit. 3 people were washed away and drowned by the flash flooding, the Dan River rose 20 feet in hours. People underestimate what a disaster it was for the city When the Dan River floods it floods. Alot of low country in the Dan River Basin from the mouth in the mountains through the Piedmont. I've seen South Boston Va underwater from the Dan River. There is a boat ramp off of 57 SE of Danville along the state line before Hyco Lake that is notorious for flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, FLweather said: When the Dan River floods it floods. Alot of low country in the Dan River Basin from the mouth in the mountains through the Piedmont. I've seen South Boston Va underwater from the Dan River. There is a boat ramp off of 57 SE of Danville along the state line before Hyco Lake that is notorious for flooding. I know this well. But the flood from Michael was the worst in recorded history in Danville according to the USGS gage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I know this well. But the flood from Michael was the worst in recorded history in Danville according to the USGS gage. Of course. Because the path of the center There was very significant tropical SE(upslope) flow against the Blue Ridge. And heavy rains over the Piedmont. The water didn't have no where to go. From personal experience. Danville and South Boston I've seen alot of Debris in that river. In the from of branches and log jams too. So that could be another factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 And early dismissal called for DPS, good call, even though winds and antecedent conditions not like Michael, this kinda rain with the upstream reports make for a scary looking day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now