FLweather Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: I guess our goal in the southern mtns can be to exceed 100" of rain in a year again. Great times!! Sure appears that way. This is 12z icon. Notice East TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, FLweather said: Sure appears that way. This is 12z icon. Notice East TN. Unfortunately this has been the norm here for the last 3 years. I'm sure it will over perform too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Just something to watch after the front and storms later this week. This is the 18z icon. Shows a piece of energy held back over Texas and potential new system along the "old" front. The goofus has something similar roughly 30 hours later without significant consequence running through TN. Much more ridging out west vs goofus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 There a clipper around the 9th on 0z GFS but shocker alert, it’s too warm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 At this point I am starting to look to severe weather threats to chase. I have embraced the suck and it will be a long wait to see snow until next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 52 minutes ago, eyewall said: At this point I am starting to look to severe weather threats to chase. I have embraced the suck and it will be a long wait to see snow until next year. What do you think about a cold spring? Which could add to the severe chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: What do you think about a cold spring? Which could add to the severe chances. Oh I am confident the pattern will flip to a cold spring once it is too late for snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 I'd take a 'cold' summer, which would give me more 80s than upper 90s... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 CMC brings 2-4" of snow next weekend to northern NC , Southern VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2nd run in a row with a decent snow for southern VA On the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 12z GFS has the same storm, but is a little to warm.. CMC brings up a coastal and supplies several inches of snow in the northern piedmont... right now though the CMC is by itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 2nd run in a row with a decent snow for southern VA On the CMC Decent hit for the I-40 / I-85 Corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Just now, jjwxman said: Decent hit for the I-40 / I-85 Corridor. Yeah , would love to see it but right now the GFS and EURO keep the snow in the Mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Setup for Saturday night looks pretty good to me. Especially for the mountains. Just need the trough to dig a little more. Temps above the surface look good. Boundary layer may be problematic but there is still room for that to trend better. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Agree on mountains . Rest don’t get your hope us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 NAM’d! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, jjwxman said: NAM’d! Someone's getting blasted, as of now, we're in the cross hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Someone's getting blasted, as of now, we're in the cross hairs. And not mention the severe threat, although probably limited due to the lack of instability, still that’s an absolutely insane boundary for Thursday evening. There will be elevated STP’s along and just south of that boundary. Possible triple point scenario over the I-85 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Looks like nothing but Apps/lakes cutters as far as the eye can see. Punt til early March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I have been saying it for a while but flooding is going to become a major concern if this keeps up. After a widespread 2-5 inch rain this week it looks to be wet again next week and beyond... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Some wild parts to the Forecast Discussion out of Greenville: "Changes happen in earnest late Wednesday afternoon as the forcing moves up from the SW and after sunset as the main surge of moisture arrives. Precipitable water values are expected to rise above 1.5 inches east of the mtns, with some guidance showing all-time high values late Wednesday night/Thursday compared to the climatology at FFC and GSO. Even more impressive are the moisture and water vapor transport anomalies during that time period, which are greater than 3 standard deviations and represent max values in the climatology. Periods of heavy rain are likely from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening as the atmospheric river translates across the region accompanied by strong mid/upper level forcing. There is the potential for 3-5 inches of rain by the time this system exits our region early Friday morning, with even more in the S/SW upslope areas of the mtns. A Flood Watch seems like a foregone conclusion with the scenario presented in the model guidance. However, the main threat will not ramp up until Wednesday night and there remains some uncertainty about the extent of the flood potential, so we will hold off with issuance for the time being. The other problem with be the severe thunderstorm potential, the details of which continue to remain elusive as guidance shows run-to-run inconsistency with the amount of instability. Everyone agrees that shear will be outstanding, on the order of 50-60 kt in a deep layer on Thursday and Thursday evening as a 60-70kt low level jet surges NE out of the Gulf. The GFS and ECMWF have backed off with their depiction of sfc-based CAPE, with both barely registering 100-250 J/kg. Meanwhile, the latest NAM develops better than 500 J/kg to the south of a boundary running along I-85 late Thursday afternoon, but the 03Z SREF shows very low probability of getting the CAPE above that level. Thus, the amount of instability continues to be a limiting factor. Suffice to say, the best chance for severe storms will be along and south/east of I-85, but will the mode be a QLCS with wind damage and isolated tornadoes, or will it be a large band of heavy rain with embedded tornadic supercells? The cold front should cross the region late Thursday and early Friday, bringing an end to the flood/severe threats. Moisture wrapping around a frontal wave will keep precip chances along the TN border into at least Friday morning, while colder air moves in from the NW. Precip will change to snow showers in the upslope areas along the TN border, with some potential for a minor snow accumulation at high elevations. This activity should wind down by sunset on Friday." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, SnowDeac said: Looks like nothing but Apps/lakes cutters as far as the eye can see. Punt til early March? Just punt the whole damn winter like I did back in early January and people called me crazy. It'll save you a lot of headache. It's over! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Just punt the whole damn winter like I did back in early January and people called me crazy. It'll save you a lot of headache. It's over! I remember when some were posting snow maps for the 7th, now we're posting rain maps with rain totals looking like they should be snowfall totals instead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I remember when some were posting snow maps for the 7th, now we're posting rain maps with rain totals looking like they should be snowfall totals instead Hey, a satisfying heavy rain event is better than a disappointing snow bust in my book. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: I remember when some were posting snow maps for the 7th, now we're posting rain maps with rain totals looking like they should be snowfall totals instead And just like a snow map, the 12z GFS has cut the rain totals by two thirds (at least for the RAH area). 3.5" is now 1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Solak said: And just like a snow map, the 12z GFS has cut the rain totals by two thirds (at least for the RAH area). 3.5" is now 1.25" Definitely looking like the heaviest rain will be west of here. Western Piedmont/Mountains will be a solid flood event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Yeah, it's looking like it'll be quite an event. Soggy ground and any severe wind events won't be a good mix, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 hours ago, SnowDeac said: Looks like nothing but Apps/lakes cutters as far as the eye can see. Punt til early March? We’re not even getting into punt formation this winter. We’re throwing pick 6’s and getting strip sacked. Maybe we can pull a late fluke after a lot of warmth like Feb ‘89 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 43 minutes ago, griteater said: We’re not even getting into punt formation this winter. We’re throwing pick 6’s and getting strip sacked. Maybe we can pull a late fluke after a lot of warmth like Feb ‘89 7qLDBye.mp4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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