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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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well there is still hope, winter is still not quite half over, so we have a big half to go plussssss, the ground hog will see his shadow tomorrow not for six more weeks of winter weather cause we've not had any winter but for six weeks finally of winter weather is my thoughts.  I hope anyway.:thumbsup:

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21 minutes ago, Snowacane said:

Really, he has nailed this winter. Though I do hope that it changes. It does not look good.

Sorry, not picking on you but I want to use this as an opportunity to voice something that’s been bothering me about this for a few days. 

Are we really going to give him credit for a good call?  I mean, yes, he’s correct that there hasn’t been measurable snow in Raleigh so far this season.  But really there hasn’t been snow below 3500 ft in our region prior to yesterday’s surprise. So the fact that it hasn’t snowed in Raleigh is not shocking. Having lived in Charlotte for more than 50 years I can promise you that a couple of snowless seasons here and there is NOT unusual. 

Would you give Brick or Tarhole Mack credit for saying “It’s never going to snow here” in December and it eventually happens that way? I don’t think anyone here would unless the poster provided scientific reasoning behind their proclamation. Why should it be any different for someone with a red tag below their display name?  If he had provided any reasoning behind his posts I would be willing to give credit. But he hasn’t (not even once) that I have seen and I read this board daily so I doubt I missed it. And now his posts come across as having an agenda, which is surprising to me because I know he wants snow as much as any of us.  

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I'm really hoping we dont end up with a late spring pattern shift that results in a stormy / severe pattern.  Its been a while since we had widespread spring severe outbreaks and I cant deal with this rain every other day.  I'm really hoping for a pattern flip, but be careful what you wish for.  

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One thing I can honestly say about this dumpster fire winter...

This is a damn good help for the Arctic Ice Cap. It is a whooping 276km² above the 2011-2019 YTD average, 48k km² behind 2013 for most extend since 2010, and just 155k km² behind the 2001-2010 average for Jan. 31st. Hopefully, if we have a near-or-less than normal melt season we can get a really good TPV lobe for the 2020/2021 winter season.

(And this counts as Long Range)

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

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3 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

One thing I can honestly say about this dumpster fire winter...

This is a damn good help for the Arctic Ice Cap. It is a whooping 276km² above the 2011-2019 YTD average, 48k km² behind 2013 for most extend since 2010, and just 155k km² behind the 2001-2010 average for Jan. 31st. Hopefully, if we have a near-or-less than normal melt season we can get a really good TPV lobe for the 2020/2021 winter season.

(And this counts as Long Range)

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

There is done evidence to support increased wintertime -AO with lack of sea ice in the Kara sea.  Be careful what you wish for 

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33 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

There is done evidence to support increased wintertime -AO with lack of sea ice in the Kara sea.  Be careful what you wish for 

Yeah we need several years of research for anything solid.  The problem is that the ice coverage is constantly changing and we are in uncharted territory when it comes to the current climate. 

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13 hours ago, snowblzchance N CLT said:

Sorry, not picking on you but I want to use this as an opportunity to voice something that’s been bothering me about this for a few days. 

Are we really going to give him credit for a good call?  I mean, yes, he’s correct that there hasn’t been measurable snow in Raleigh so far this season.  But really there hasn’t been snow below 3500 ft in our region prior to yesterday’s surprise. So the fact that it hasn’t snowed in Raleigh is not shocking. Having lived in Charlotte for more than 50 years I can promise you that a couple of snowless seasons here and there is NOT unusual. 

Would you give Brick or Tarhole Mack credit for saying “It’s never going to snow here” in December and it eventually happens that way? I don’t think anyone here would unless the poster provided scientific reasoning behind their proclamation. Why should it be any different for someone with a red tag below their display name?  If he had provided any reasoning behind his posts I would be willing to give credit. But he hasn’t (not even once) that I have seen and I read this board daily so I doubt I missed it. And now his posts come across as having an agenda, which is surprising to me because I know he wants snow as much as any of us.  

I agree with your thoughts Sir!

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  • Mid 60's for an extended period of time in mid February - just so amazing - residents of the TN Valley will be sorely surprised when the larger scale pattern eventually flips; if we were to have a winter season like we had in my child hood -1970's-1980's - people would not know what to do not to mention if we had one similar to the 1960's where almost every season in that decade had at least one big storm and several seasons had seasonal totals well over 12" - just amazing! Anyone have any idea when we break from this multi-year crap pattern?
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