SteveRDU Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 15 minutes ago, jjwxman said: The progression of next weekends storm system on the 00z GFS was very weird. At hr 138 it has the LP center just west of Tampa, FL. Then at 142 it has the LP center over Nashville, TN. Literally the worst model ever in every single scenario. Tomorrow it will show a blizzard in the Yucatán and we will sing songs of suppression depression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I can't even... Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 What a dumpster fire! The Wednesday/Thursday system is plenty juicy now, because temps will be in the 50s, I’m guessing it’s gonna be hard to snow at 50 degrees this weekend? Ugggh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Blizzard on the gfs, stay warm boys 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, broken024 said: Blizzard on the gfs, stay warm boys Yay for another 10+ day fantasy snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: Yay for another 10+ day fantasy snow If their going to be fantasies, they should be dirty! This one is just kinky! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 24 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: If their going to be fantasies, they should be dirty! This one is just kinky! It has to be the last hurrah for fantasy storms before the flowers start blooming #everyweenieinthesouthdreamsofthisday #congratslouisiana #tennesseegetsscrewed #1in1000yearepicstormthatwillneverhappen EDIT to add the fantasy map that belongs in the banter thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 If their going to be fantasies, they should be dirty! This one is just kinky!Look at ensemble 2, 5, and 19... https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GEFS/2020012612/SE/GEFSSE_prec_snens_384.png Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Look at ensemble 2, 5, and 19... https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GEFS/2020012612/SE/GEFSSE_prec_snens_384.png Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk This whole thread is nothing more than 300+ hr fantasy storms. It wasn't too long ago posting anything past 160 hrs would get you one of these next to your name. Hopefully spring will drag on endlessly, keeping the summer sauna away.....sigh. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I don't even like the looks of that fantasy storm. It has southern Wake rain written all over it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Give me a warm and dry February at this point and I won't complain about the lack of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 RAH early thoughts for next weekend. It's worth noting that GFS forecast soundings show plenty of low level cooling Saturday night into early Sunday, so we may have to consider p-type issues during that time if there's any adequate QPF assoc with the upper low passage. The ECMWF on the other hand shows the northern stream portion of the system dominating and remaining much more progressive, thus it keeps the moisture and sfc low well to our south, and in fact, keeps our area dry this weekend! The Canadian looks more like the GFS, and the GEFS supports the operational GFS to some extent. For now, won't make too many changes and continue to carry chance PoPs until future runs come into better agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, Solak said: RAH early thoughts for next weekend. It's worth noting that GFS forecast soundings show plenty of low level cooling Saturday night into early Sunday, so we may have to consider p-type issues during that time if there's any adequate QPF assoc with the upper low passage. The ECMWF on the other hand shows the northern stream portion of the system dominating and remaining much more progressive, thus it keeps the moisture and sfc low well to our south, and in fact, keeps our area dry this weekend! The Canadian looks more like the GFS, and the GEFS supports the operational GFS to some extent. For now, won't make too many changes and continue to carry chance PoPs until future runs come into better agreement. well there is a chance and it is within 7 days, that's about a first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Kind of interesting for yall NC folks. Thursday morning timeframe. Temps are in mid upper 30s. +/- 2to 3 degrees. Moisture and duration looks to be the biggest factor. Canadian 12z. 18z Icon 18z nam 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 A few flurries here IMBY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 54 minutes ago, FLweather said: Kind of interesting for yall NC folks. Thursday morning timeframe. Temps are in mid upper 30s. +/- 2to 3 degrees. Moisture and duration looks to be the biggest factor. Canadian 12z. 18z Icon 18z nam These are the tricky systems that can produce without notice... Thanks for posting those maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 hour ago, strongwxnc said: These are the tricky systems that can produce without notice... Thanks for posting those maps Robert made a post similar to your first sentence and he's a tad bit excited about it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 hours ago, strongwxnc said: These are the tricky systems that can produce without notice... Thanks for posting those maps I would watch tonight as well. Especially mountains south and west.. and east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 The system on Thursday very much has legs. Let's be clear- Not a very high ceiling system! The best case scenario is probably a 1-3 inch event on the northern half of the state! But, beggars can't be choosers. The difference for the last few runs of the GFS is a much healthier merge between the two parent jet streaks on the shortwave. when it's exiting Texas. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 18 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: The system on Thursday very much has legs. Let's be clear- Not a very high ceiling system! The best case scenario is probably a 1-3 inch event on the northern half of the state! But, beggars can't be choosers. The difference for the last few runs of the GFS is a much healthier merge between the two parent jet streaks on the shortwave. when it's exiting Texas. Sorry. I do respect your opinion. But considering how badly GFS has performed I'd be seeking my own blend. Instead of relying on GFS. But I heartily agree Thursday looks Interesting for NC. Even tonight looks interesting. But that's my opinion. Considering GFS that's the last thing I would look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Ensembles continue to target between the 7th-10th, couple of juicers in there too Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Ensembles continue to target between the 7th-10th, couple of juicers in there too Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Seems like we were just using the same words about 3 weeks ago!? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Euro was that good?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 4 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Euro was that good?? Yea..not so much Gives a little upslope action that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Almost a 1.5" mean for CLT on SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 8 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: Ensembles continue to target between the 7th-10th, couple of juicers in there too Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Problem is will it be cold enough, seems we're always lacking the cold enough for snow. We've had lots of 35 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 13% of winter's since 1920 in Greensboro have featured less than an inch of snow. I think we'll get there, but at this point I would be happy with anything at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 I stand by my call that RDU zeros out this winter. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 17 minutes ago, eyewall said: I stand by my call that RDU zeros out this winter. You made that call early too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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