LithiaWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: The top image reminds me a lot of the Feb 14 map the Euro spit out the day before for me and Mack. That was supposed to be a generational storm (actually had amounts about 50% higher); had the mets going big dog, and the stinking WAA went off the charts and sleeted us to death. That was a crusher. Again, great to see potential, but hour 360? Might as well be hour 23,304. Going to be fun to have some things to watch going forward for sure though! I had like 3-5”of sleet with a little snow in that storm. It was a Tony special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, UpstateSCGamecock said: Agree. I just wanted to point out how both the GFS and Euro ENS match closely for 28th/29th storm threat. Yes, over 300 hours so it’s just eye candy. . I understand, that's incredible agreement for that lead time. The Euro and GFS are normally like Republicans and Democrats, they can't agree on anything! This whole 24th-30th week should be a good period to watch going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 16, 2020 Author Share Posted January 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: The top image reminds me a lot of the Feb 14 map the Euro spit out the day before for me and Mack. That was supposed to be a generational storm (actually had amounts about 50% higher); had the mets going big dog, and the stinking WAA went off the charts and sleeted us to death. That was a crusher. Again, great to see potential, but hour 360? Might as well be hour 23,304. Going to be fun to have some things to watch going forward for sure though! It is hard to take any model seriously when each and every week they print out single storm totals that no person alive has ever seen. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Snowing at my house on the 23rd! 0z GFS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Maybe this little bit of energy will kick up a quick little late bloomer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Looks like pressures are trying to fall in upstate SC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Ice storm gone on 00 gfs . Not really even a cold rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Back to low to mid 60s for highs by the 25th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 The weekend one is gonna jump around a lot for a while I'd say. Very minor H5 changes are resulting in big surface changes. Still had the 50/50 and developing block, but the trough took off north towards the great lakes instead of digging a bit more eastward like at 18z. Even if that one misses, the 50/50 and the block could be important for the following week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Inside 6 days..fire up the thread @mackerel_sky I always knew a clipper would save us in 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, WarmNose said: Inside 6 days..fire up the thread @mackerel_sky I always knew a clipper would save us in 2020 And the 28th storm is still there, and trending a little South! #$$$$ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 28th storm left the Baja cutoff low behind this time so it's not a beast like at 18z. Hopefully as we get inside day 10 we'll start to see some ensemble support consolidate around that time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Unless I’m looking at wrong map GEFS upped snow totals over 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6z GFS is very close to a good storm next weekend and the one after that.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 There are 3 events on the 6z GFS that offer frozen precip to some parts of N.C./SC! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I posted this on the MA forum, but I went and looked at the latest GFS 14 day interconnections EPO: strongly positive (of course..)PNA: Goes positive (bonus)NAO: dips negative around the 26th (surprising I know... Now it needs to stick)AO: dips slightly negative around the 29th Get the EPO to tank and we will be in good standing with an almost ideal set up Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk So@mackerel_sky there is a glimmer of hope 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 29th storm has NW Trend all over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I posted this on the MA forum, but I went and looked at the latest GFS 14 day interconnections EPO: strongly positive (of course..) PNA: Goes positive (bonus) NAO: dips negative around the 26th (surprising I know... Now it needs to stick) AO: dips slightly negative around the 29th Get the EPO to tank and we will be in good standing with an almost ideal set up Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk So@mackerel_sky there is a glimmer of hope Nice thing is we don't have to be perfect this time of year. But I've always said (and I think everybody agrees) the PNA is crucial for us SE folks. When it goes negative we usually have no chance (even if the EPO is negative). **again usually... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: 6z GFS is very close to a good storm next weekend and the one after that.... Rain storm or snow storm, we hope the snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 30 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Nice thing is we don't have to be perfect this time of year. But I've always said (and I think everybody agrees) the PNA is crucial for us SE folks. When it goes negative we usually have no chance (even if the EPO is negative). **again usually... Personally, I'm a bigger fan of a -nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I know that Snowfall has a ratio to liquid (6:1, 10:1, etc.) is ZR a 1:1 ratio with liquid?Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: I know that Snowfall has a ratio to liquid (6:1, 10:1, etc.) is ZR a 1:1 ratio with liquid? Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk I'm no met, but since ice expands a bit when it freezes, it might be 1.1:1 ratio with ZR. Probably not worth thinking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I know that Snowfall has a ratio to liquid (6:1, 10:1, etc.) is ZR a 1:1 ratio with liquid? Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Wes Junker's paper might help. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snowfcst/snow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I think it's 3-2/1 I'm no met, but since ice expands a bit when it freezes, it might be 1.1:1 ratio with ZR. Probably not worth thinking about.Thanks guys, reason I asked was based off that 29th storm, I would start with 6" of snow (10:1 ratio), then get decked by 1.25" of ZR (1:1 ratio)Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Thanks guys, reason I asked was based off that 29th storm, I would start with 6" of snow (10:1 ratio), then get decked by 1.25" of ZR (1:1 ratio) Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Try that link. Good stuff in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 10 hours ago, LithiaWx said: I had like 3-5”of sleet with a little snow in that storm. It was a Tony special. Sleet sounds good and yeah, he would love it. And, it has been a while, and I think I posted iI in the banter thread a year or so ago, and I might have missed some update, but what's the story with Tony? No word from him in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Try that link. Good stuff in there. Yeah it was, and go figure on the sounding I got screwed by a *100mb* thick warm nose (850mb-950mb with 5C temps), if it was not there (700mb was cold enough) it would have been pure snow. Talk about sickening, but still lots of time and wiggle room to bring it back down so not worriedSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, Shack said: Sleet sounds good and yeah, he would love it. And, it has been a while, and I think I posted iI in the banter thread a year or so ago, and I might have missed some update, but what's the story with Tony? No word from him in years. Jan 2018 last post, funny guy for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Nasty squall line ripping up southern Alabama on the 25th (hr204)Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 60's on the 25th isn't exactly what I call ideal LOL. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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