BornAgain13 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I must say, it is disappointing to not see much Wintry weather being depicted by the modeling, but to see the cold getting here , that's encouraging and always what we need first...Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Well the OP Euro does show moisture coming after day 10 but it will likely be rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 35 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: So, we finally get the cold shot that the models hinted at for the past 3 or 4 weeks and the moisture suddenly vanishes. Classic stuff there. Let us see what happens though. You know where I am placing my bets. It didn't vanish though. It's throwing waves at us one after the other from both the NS and the STJ. No the OP models aren't showing the timing and placement of features matching up perfectly right now, but verbatim the GFS has 2 suppressed snow storms with a rain storm in between with an H5 look that doesn't match its ensemble. Suppression is always a risk but it's almost always over modeled to some degree. Euro was extremely close to giving the SE coast a nice hit at 12z. We all know these things can adjust hundreds of miles inside day 7. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Flow is pretty fast with just one wave after another. Progressiveness is likely the main battle to fight here, especially with no blocking. That said, things are pretty close for eastern areas, as it stands right now, many days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 It wouldn’t take a lot of repositioning to make this shortwave on the euro a bigger deal. Perfect high. Something to keep track of. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 It's silly to expect models to pick up small nuances that are currently over Mongolia and track them to form SE snowstorms. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Queencitywx said: I think, with the cold thats being modeled, january 2005 isnt a terrible analog. There were massive positive departures early in the month that went into two weeks in the icebox But was there any snow in 2005? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I'd say it'd probably be wise to wait and see how the next 2 storm systems this week impact and setup the Atlantic stream flow for next week. Just the slightest change in the fast flow exit off the coast, along with better dig from the NS energy, could increase our chances of a phase further west and a big dog for most of the forum. Without that, late bloomers will probably be the norm for the first part of the new pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said: It's silly to expect models to pick up small nuances that are currently over Mongolia and track them to form SE snowstorms. Harsh but fair i like the idea of the wave next week diving well south but question whether it will be far enough west. Need that trough in the NE Pac to quit impinging on our western ridge. The setup is close enough for now anyway. Maybe happy hour will throw us a bone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 It ain't happening folks. Maybe next year. 4 1 4 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Long range on the 12 zeez wasn’t too kind. CMC Ens was the coldest, but less western ridging and not as cold on the GEFS and EPS. The western ridging is kind of a must have given the unrelenting +AO. The split flow and southern stream look remains though which is good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 12z Euro control was a big hit next week over a portion of NE NC and SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, griteater said: Long range on the 12 zeez wasn’t too kind. CMC Ens was the coldest, but less western ridging and not as cold on the GEFS and EPS. The western ridging is kind of a must have given the unrelenting +AO. The split flow and southern stream look remains though which is good 32" of snow in Manteo, 20" of snow in Kill Devil hills, nothing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: 20" of snow in Kill Devil hills, nothing here. NW trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: NW trend That doesn't apply when it's a good thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Tacoma said: But was there any snow in 2005? Wasn't that when we had the flash freeze that paralyzed Raleigh with numerous people stranded on the road overnight? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Boy guys I'm patiently waiting or at least I thought I was, this is crazy. I think well maybe next week, maybe the next week and then maybe the next week, wow we're gonna run out of weeks. We had a glimmer of hope this week on a couple of models but as usual things are lost , not showing up. I'm still trying to be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 The MJO isnt looking as promising now and may head back into phase 6 or the COD. The cold will probably relax in late Jan either way after a week or so of at or below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, Tacoma said: Boy guys I'm patiently waiting or at least I thought I was, this is crazy. I think well maybe next week, maybe the next week and then maybe the next week, wow we're gonna run out of weeks. We had a glimmer of hope this week on a couple of models but as usual things are lost , not showing up. I'm still trying to be optimistic. I’ve been assured, bitter cold is coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Below normal to significantly below normal for as far as the eye can see: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 The MJO isnt looking as promising now and may head back into phase 6 or the COD. The cold will probably relax in late Jan either way after a week or so of at or below average. Use this to get back on topic, that recurve sucks!Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Well It looks like the cold is going to get here along with suppression but that's common here. I remember one winter storm 2013 maybe? Winter storm watches to the south of me and it kept coming north until we were all in it so it's not impossible. I will take the look we are getting now on the models and take my chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Extreme NEGA said: Well It looks like the cold is going to get here along with suppression but that's common here. I remember one winter storm 2013 maybe? Winter storm watches to the south of me and it kept coming north until we were all in it so it's not impossible. I will take the look we are getting now on the models and take my chances. Agreed. I'd rather have a long shot chance, and bet on climo bringing things back towards the southern Appalachians, than no chance at all like we've had in this torch pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Any chance that the models aren't really showing a huge threat due to convective feedback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Any chance that the models aren't really showing a huge threat due to convective feedback? The 500mb wave has to dive down and bottom out farther to the southwest or nothing else matters. Most, but not all, simulations dive the wave down too far east. Other possibility is getting a southern stream wave to streak in a couple days later and prior to the cold high retreating off the NE coast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 This thread sure died. Lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: This thread sure died. Lol. Isohume said it in your signature quote. They call it fantasy land for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 There remains lots of potential in the next several weeks. The 06Z GFS has cool to seasonal temperatures in NC for the entirety of its run following Friday. There is also lots of opportunities for precipitations. The trick is matching the two together. I like our chances. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Boy ,,,,Quite,,,, 47 minutes ago, calculus1 said: There remains lots of potential in the next several weeks. The 06Z GFS has cool to seasonal temperatures in NC for the entirety of its run following Friday. There is also lots of opportunities for precipitations. The trick is matching the two together. I like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 21 minutes ago, Tacoma said: Boy ,,,,Quite,,,, Quite what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now