Extreme NEGA Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Right now I just want the cold air to get here. The other details will have to be sorted out later on down the road. When the cold air gets here then maybe we will be tracking systems within a 3 to 5 day period popping up instead of this fantasy stuff. Too many unknowns out there right now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 MJO amplitude continues to grow on the MJO plots. Shown are the Euro MJO changes over the last 6 days...and the CFS MJO changes over the last 3 days. The GFS plots are similar to the CFS though the CFS holds a higher amplitude into Phase 8. Personally, I believe the CFS has the right idea here. The 2 most likely outcomes IMO are: 1) We get an Aleutian Low developing in the mean pattern, with western ridging, and a nice split flow of storm waves into California in the southern stream <OR> 2) The westerly flow is too overwhelming and attempts at western ridging aren't as aggressive, leading to pattern that is maybe cool at times, but not cold enough. It is interesting to note that the Euro/EPS has been the least aggressive with western ridging - but it is also the least aggressive with the MJO circuit. It's possible that the EPS trends colder in late Jan / early Feb if it continues to correct the MJO with more amplitude. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 58 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, it’s supposed to rain again tomorrow! Our best storms sneak up with almost no warning! Jan 25 2000. Prime example. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 40 minutes ago, FLweather said: Jan 25 2000. Prime example. Feb 2004 and Feb 2014 are also great examples. I was really young in 2004, but if I remember correctly, they were only calling for 4-6 inches. And Feb 2014 was supposed to miss us to the south, I believe. Edit: I would gladly take a half of foot and be satisfied for the rest of the winter. I know, I know: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 NC peeps gonna love 18z gfs!! Says pattern change and frozen precip coming this Saturday!! Been trending colder and Sourh the last few days! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: NC peeps gonna love 18z gfs!! Says pattern change and frozen precip coming this Saturday!! Been trending colder and Sourh the last few days! I'll believe it when there's wintry precip hitting my face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, griteater said: MJO amplitude continues to grow on the MJO plots. Shown are the Euro MJO changes over the last 6 days...and the CFS MJO changes over the last 3 days. The GFS plots are similar to the CFS though the CFS holds a higher amplitude into Phase 8. Personally, I believe the CFS has the right idea here. The 2 most likely outcomes IMO are: 1) We get an Aleutian Low developing in the mean pattern, with western ridging, and a nice split flow of storm waves into California in the southern stream <OR> 2) The westerly flow is too overwhelming and attempts at western ridging aren't as aggressive, leading to pattern that is maybe cool at times, but not cold enough. It is interesting to note that the Euro/EPS has been the least aggressive with western ridging - but it is also the least aggressive with the MJO circuit. It's possible that the EPS trends colder in late Jan / early Feb if it continues to correct the MJO with more amplitude. Grit, I don't know much about the AAM aside from some quick online research, but wouldn't a huge spike in the AAM like is being shown on the EPS be bad for a long-term colder pattern in the east? Seems so from what I've read. Also the EPO is always shown to dive negative but the brakes are always pumped as we get closer. Seems like every year we add a new oscillation/anomaly/abbreviation that ruins our winters. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Who’s up for some front end action this weekend?.... As in frozen precipitation of course. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Clearly, the first period of interest following the Fri-Sat mix to rain deal is next Monday - Tuesday where we look to see if the northern stream can dig far enough south and west to ignite a SE coastal storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, griteater said: Clearly, the first period of interest following the Fri-Sat mix to rain deal is next Monday - Tuesday where we look to see if the northern stream can dig far enough south and west to ignite a SE coastal storm. That's what I'm looking at. The storm this weekend isn't worth following. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 31 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Grit, I don't know much about the AAM aside from some quick online research, but wouldn't a huge spike in the AAM like is being shown on the EPS be bad for a long-term colder pattern in the east? Seems so from what I've read. Also the EPO is always shown to dive negative but the brakes are always pumped as we get closer. Seems like every year we add a new oscillation/anomaly/abbreviation that ruins our winters. lol It's kind of funny that folks have been talking about the lack of +AAM causing it to be warm, then now, there is talk of us getting too much +AAM with a warm result as well. So with the +AAM and MJO circuit thru 7-8-1, we should expect to see the Pacific jet extend, leading to a tendency of seeing an Aleutian / North Pac Low with western ridging and split flow (ideal)...but too much +AAM / too strong MJO and you get scenario 2 I mentioned earlier where the jet extension / westerly flow is too strong and the western ridging gets broken down and doesn't sustain itself (cool at times, but not cold enough) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 With the 21st threat I just hope the suppression isn't overwhelming and that the flat flow off the eastern US doesn't cause a late bloomer for those of us further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, griteater said: MJO amplitude continues to grow on the MJO plots. Shown are the Euro MJO changes over the last 6 days...and the CFS MJO changes over the last 3 days. The GFS plots are similar to the CFS though the CFS holds a higher amplitude into Phase 8. Personally, I believe the CFS has the right idea here. The 2 most likely outcomes IMO are: 1) We get an Aleutian Low developing in the mean pattern, with western ridging, and a nice split flow of storm waves into California in the southern stream <OR> 2) The westerly flow is too overwhelming and attempts at western ridging aren't as aggressive, leading to pattern that is maybe cool at times, but not cold enough. It is interesting to note that the Euro/EPS has been the least aggressive with western ridging - but it is also the least aggressive with the MJO circuit. It's possible that the EPS trends colder in late Jan / early Feb if it continues to correct the MJO with more amplitude. That's my hope as well Grit. Perhaps the EPS won't pop a ridge in Alaska because it's not "seeing" the higher amp 7/8. 12z seemed to have a bit of one further out in time but yeah, it's way out there in time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 28 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: That's what I'm looking at. The storm this weekend isn't worth following. #3 is beautiful for example (from 18z GEFS Members). Some other hits in there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 and 4 look pretty good. Unfortunately, most of those have a late bloomer. Hopefully that changes on future runs! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 21 minutes ago, griteater said: #3 is beautiful for example (from 18z GEFS Members). Some other hits in there If it's snowing on the Gulf Coast of Texas and Mexico, it better damn well snow here. Otherwise, I am packing up my stuff and moving to Mount Washington, NH. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Mike Maze on WRAL mentioned Saturday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Queencitywx said: Mike Maze on WRAL mentioned Saturday morning. Suprising, they are usually very conservative with the s word. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Suprising, they are usually very conservative with the s word. They always have been ! But they seem to have changed their tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, IWC said: They always have been ! But they seem to have changed their tune. Could be, we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 32 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Could be, we shall see Many here wouldn't even notice it. They would be too busy downloading and posting 340 hour maps. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, jburns said: Many here wouldn't even notice it. They would be too busy downloading and posting 340 hour maps. Hey now, some of us need to know what it's not going to do in 2 weeks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 35 minutes ago, jburns said: Many here wouldn't even notice it. They would be too busy downloading and posting 340 hour maps. I’m still looking for the 10 day pattern change being hyped!? Can’t snow before then! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Wow, the 18z GEFS was strong on the CAD. It actually kept the favored NC western Piedmont and Foothills below freezing through 18z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, jjwxman said: Wow, the 18z GEFS was strong on the CAD. It actually kept the favored NC western Piedmont and Foothills below freezing through 18z Saturday. That is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Great Lakes Low is no bueno for our Saturday system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, JoshM said: Great Lakes Low is no bueno for our Saturday system That’s always just been the tablesetter storm for us! That 22nd timeframe, is $$$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, JoshM said: Great Lakes Low is no bueno for our Saturday system That storm is a cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Come to pappa ! The 22/23 timeframe, is going to be a big dog! That cold press on 0z GFS, moisture and disturbances lurking around TX , it gone b good 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Come to pappa ! The 22/23 timeframe, is going to be a big dog! That cold press on 0z GFS, moisture and disturbances lurking around TX , it gone b good Might get squashed. Hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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