SnowDawg Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 36 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I thought the EPS looked warmer overall but could be wrong Big changes come just past 240 and locks in all the way to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, SnowDawg said: GEFS mean. All of this in the SE falls between the 20th and the 26th. EPS snowfall is still coming in so I haven't seen it yet but based on H5 I'd be surprised if there wasn't some. Looks like some major Lowland snows for the Pac NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Looking like a good run on the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, griteater said: I really hope the MJO doesn't stall out in phase 7, and start back to loop around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Great split flow pattern showing up on the GFS with HP ruling overhead. That will give multiple shots of potential storm events as waves roll across. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 31 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I really hope the MJO doesn't stall out in phase 7, and start back to loop around. MJO 7, gives CLT a lot of winter storms, so 7 is good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 In the words of Stone Cold Steve Austin can I get a Hell Yeah?! (18z GEFS, hr324)Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: In the words of Stone Cold Steve Austin can I get a Hell Yeah?! (18z GEFS, hr324) Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk I'll take that look. I know NW trends would eventually put my area in the sweet spot lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Can someone explain to a newbie if the MJO forecast Moving to 7 accurate or is it like everything else that changes? Sorry for the dumb question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 26 minutes ago, Grayman said: Can someone explain to a newbie if the MJO forecast Moving to 7 accurate or is it like everything else that changes? Sorry for the dumb question It’s just another forecast tool. They can change daily, their forecast. As best as I understand, phases 1,2,8, and now 7, per Webber, are our coldest phases for E and SE in winter months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: MJO 7, gives CLT a lot of winter storms, so 7 is good Yeah, I just don't want it high tailing it to the cod and back out to 4 and 5 for February. Take a stroll and hang out in 8, 1, 2 for a while it's nice there, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 3 hours ago, SnowNiner said: I really hope the MJO doesn't stall out in phase 7, and start back to loop around. 1 hour ago, Grayman said: Can someone explain to a newbie if the MJO forecast Moving to 7 accurate or is it like everything else that changes? Sorry for the dumb question Those MJO plots tend to have that hook on the end. Here are stats from DonSutherland - "Historic experience with the MJO following its reaching Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period (as occurred recently) sees the MJO progress into Phases 7 and 8 (88% cases)" What I suspect we will see is something along the lines of the CFS, minus the hook on the end...that is, into Phase 5 at high amp, into Phase 6 at moderate amp, into Phase 7 at low to moderate amp, into Phase 8 at low to moderate amp, and into Phase 1 at low amp. The bigger question is will the atmosphere respond to the MJO tropical forcing in a manner that is consistent with prior cases. It doesn't always respond (just look at last Februrary). The MJO Seasonal Cycle tool from Paul Roundy is really good at showing the typical pattern produced by the MJO Phase and time of year - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 3 hours ago, Wow said: Great split flow pattern showing up on the GFS with HP ruling overhead. That will give multiple shots of potential storm events as waves roll across. Yes that was classic split flow to a T...hope we get a shot at seeing that down the line 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, griteater said: Those MJO plots tend to have that hook on the end. Here are stats from DonSutherland - "Historic experience with the MJO following its reaching Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period (as occurred recently) sees the MJO progress into Phases 7 and 8 (88% cases)" What I suspect we will see is something along the lines of the CFS, minus the hook on the end...that is, into Phase 5 at high amp, into Phase 6 at moderate amp, into Phase 7 at low to moderate amp, into Phase 8 at low to moderate amp, and into Phase 1 at low amp. The bigger question is will the atmosphere respond to the MJO tropical forcing in a manner that is consistent with prior cases. It doesn't always respond (just look at last Februrary). The MJO Seasonal Cycle tool from Paul Roundy is really good at showing the typical pattern produced by the MJO Phase and time of year - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html Grit, Great stuff. Question, are the MJO plots/forecast based on ops/ensembles model data or actual obs? Reason I ask is that you referenced last Feb. I don’t recall the models giving us a sniff last Feb. or is my memory flawed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 31 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Grit, Great stuff. Question, are the MJO plots/forecast based on ops/ensembles model data or actual obs? Reason I ask is that you referenced last Feb. I don’t recall the models giving us a sniff last Feb. or is my memory flawed? So the forecast MJO RMM plots are based on forecasts of tropical variables, typically OLR (clouds/convection), 850mb winds, and 200mb winds. Sometimes VP (upper level divergence) is substituted, or included along with, OLR. As for last winter, the MJO made a run thru Phase 4-5-6-7-8-1-2 in late Jan thru Feb, but we ended up with a La Nina-like -PNA pattern (i.e. we certainly don't always see the expected atmospheric response to the tropical forcing) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, griteater said: So the forecast MJO RMM plots are based on forecasts of tropical variables, typically OLR (clouds/convection), 850mb winds, and 200mb winds. Sometimes VP (upper level divergence) is substituted, or included along with, OLR. As for last winter, the MJO made a run thru Phase 4-5-6-7-8-1 in late Jan thru Feb, but we ended up with a -PNA pattern (i.e. we certainly don't always see the expected atmospheric response to the tropical forcing) Awesome! Thanks for clarifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 0z GFS brings back some ZR/Sleet action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Big suppressed storm around the 23rd. Here in the mountains suppression always scares me but given our past with NW trends I'm happy to see it at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Even if it is ice, I'll take it as a kick starterSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 0z GEFS... It just keeps getting better and better (hr288)Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 One ensemble of the 0z EURO is on freaking crack... Widespread cold outbreak, major winter storm (even my area got 8.8")...Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: One ensemble of the 0z EURO is on freaking crack... Widespread cold outbreak, major winter storm (even my area got 8.8")... Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 6z gfs says, continue to enjoy your rain! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 6z gfs says, continue to enjoy your rain! What a damn dumpster fire verbatim. Cold is gone completely. Only 2 nights even get down to freezing. And just barely. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: What a damn dumpster fire verbatim. Cold is gone completely. Only 2 nights even get down to freezing. And just barely. When major pattern changes are in the works, the models flip flop a lot, so hopefully just a blip, like Clemsons’ 35 game win streak, that’s about to be ended! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: What a damn dumpster fire verbatim. Cold is gone completely. Only 2 nights even get down to freezing. And just barely. Seen this movie before - major changes telegraphed in the LR - then when it gets to the timeframe modeled - the pattern of persistence is the one that wins out - hope I am wrong but just seen this too many times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 06Z OP run doesn't agree with the ensembles.... it's probably a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Please don't use tropical tidbits for snow maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Please don't use tropical tidbits for snow maps.Who said anything about even using that clown map Eye?Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 6z gfs says, continue to enjoy your rain! What a damn dumpster fire verbatim. Cold is gone completely. Only 2 nights even get down to freezing. And just barely.It is a blip, 6z GEFS hr312Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: It is a blip, 6z GEFS hr312 Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Yeah I know. Just talking junk to Mack. The EPS is beautiful at 500mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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