Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 46 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Very active period between January 17-22 that still looks interesting... Historically, the time around MLK Holiday is a great spot for us, probably because it is smack in the middle of our "coldest" portion of the year. Also interesting that the GFS still has a horrible cold bias, particularly past day 5. The ECMWF and GFS are very different with the extent of the cold past day 5. What I'd like to see happen is something similar out west to what the GFS shows: Have that low pinch off underneath the block to its north. The Euro moves in that direction by 240, but it doesn't look as good. It would turn into a good pattern for the east with a continued active STJ and cold highs dropping out of the north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Yes the GFS does look good there. That looks like a long overrunning type event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 IF the GFS is right we are going to go from a week were our nighttime lows are higher than our average daytime highs to struggling to get out of the upper 30's with lows in the teens and low 20's for a week lol....and the change is sudden, big front then big cold.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: IF the GFS is right we are going to go from a week were our nighttime lows are higher than our average daytime highs to struggling to get out of the upper 30's with lows in the teens and low 20's for a week lol....and the change is sudden, big front then big cold.... I'm waiting to see it.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: IF the GFS is right we are going to go from a week were our nighttime lows are higher than our average daytime highs to struggling to get out of the upper 30's with lows in the teens and low 20's for a week lol....and the change is sudden, big front then big cold.... One thing we can bank on with Op Models on modeled cold- it will be more progressive than shown this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: One thing we can bank on with Op Models on modeled cold- it will be more progressive than shown this far out And it will not be as cold as modeled, especially on the GFS. If it’s showing 30s/10s now, it’ll be 45/30 at verification 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 The bad news is the Euro really never gets us cold in the next 10 days in last nights run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Euro does not have the cold. At all lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Eps has the best look we have seen all year! Definitely moving towards a wintry patter. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 12z GFS up to it's old tricks...Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 12z GFS up to it's old tricks... Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Back to cutters? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Back to cutters?Nope, "ice ice baby"Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: Nope, "ice ice baby" Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk I know we can get some ice with low tracks W of the apps, but up through Chicago, meh! We have seen these crazy totals at this range already a few times this year. Still looks interesting from 18th on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Euro does not have the cold. At all lol. 2 hours ago, franklin NCwx said: Eps has the best look we have seen all year! Definitely moving towards a wintry patter. Soooo, which is it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, Jonathan said: Soooo, which is it? Well.... I would roll with the ensembles over op models in the extended. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, franklin NCwx said: Well.... I would roll with the ensembles over op models in the extended. Oh, ok. I didn't realize that was op vs ens. For sure on the ensemble. Let's keep the good juju flowing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Gfs cranking up the epo ridge next week. Should get a flood of Arctic air in the pattern. Good times ahead! 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 This GFS run from hr200 to hr324 gave me a flashback to the early Jan 2017 storm look where it tucks part of the upper wave in the NE Pac back west, but dives a piece of it southeast out of the Pac NW into the cold air over us 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Now let's all hope the gfs is right! Looks like a great pattern for sure. Would like to see the euro get on board with the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Now let's all hope the gfs is right! Looks like a great pattern for sure. Would like to see the euro get on board with the ensembles Now you go in the corner, and you think about what you just said Mr. Long range I'm waiting for the ensembles to tell the tale. Two GFS runs in a row is noteworthy I guess, but I'd like the ensemble means to show an average out likelyhood of a better pattern down the road. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Now you go in the corner, and you think about what you just said Mr. Long range I'm waiting for the ensembles to tell the tale. Two GFS runs in a row is noteworthy I guess, but I'd like the ensemble means to show an average out likelyhood of a better pattern down the road. Lol yea it excites me a little but not buying in quite yet. There are lots of signals pointing this in the right direction. Nice ridge building in Pacific northwest. Some blocking in the NE and the southern stream remains a fire hose..ingredients are there IF its right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Yea I'm not buying it yet either. All the indices are still in the wrong places and the operational Euro is still infatuated with keeping our friend, the SE ridge and delaying any cold air arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Yea I'm not buying it yet either. All the indices are still in the wrong places and the operational Euro is still infatuated with keeping our friend, the SE ridge and delaying any cold air arrival. You look at op models over ensembles? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: You look at op models over ensembles? No but it's another piece of the puzzle. I think the GFS is bringing the colder pattern in too early by 3 or 4 days at least. It won't be until Around MLK day or later when we could see a decent winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: No but it's another piece of the puzzle. I think the GFS is bringing the colder pattern in too early by 3 or 4 days at least. It won't be until Around MLK day or later when we could see a decent winter pattern. Probably not, but the changes are taking place well before that in the Pacific. It's under 10 days now and has been shown on the ensembles for several days. I think chances are better than normal we get into a wintry period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Can we get a wing and a prayer? Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 27 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Can we get a wing and a prayer? Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk That would definitely help us in the southeast. Although not a guarantee but it typically our best storms happen with mjo in 7 or 8! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Eps looks similar to gfs ensembles on a pattern flip after day 10. That is very encouraging! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Looks good with the epo ridge day 9. Roll it forward and it gets stronger with it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 44 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Looks good with the epo ridge day 9. Roll it forward and it gets stronger with it. EPS Day 10-15 Mean (850mb Temp Anomalies) 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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