mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, SENC said: huh? I was talking about the 10 day euro, with storm over Ga day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, WarmNose said: Bone chilling regionwide mid/upper 20’s Wrap the pipes , bring in the pets!☃️ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 I’d settle for slightly above average temps at this point lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 I hear you. Had the full court press to turn in the AC last night. Could not do it on principle. . Pro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 One word for the upcoming/current pattern: Bleak When storms are showing in the beginning of January and the rain/snow line is 200 miles into Canada, our chances don't look great... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: One word for the upcoming/current pattern: Bleak When storms are showing in the beginning of January and the rain/snow line is 200 miles into Canada, our chances don't look great... Yep, my coldest low over the next 15 days is 29, according to GFS! In the climo coldest time of winter, it’s bad 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 So far my RDU zeroing out prediction is on track. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Of course I'm hoping for the 12z model runs to show an epic SE snowstorm. But, I'm actually thinking they'll show warmer solutions in the LR. Looking at the indices, it doesn't look good. PNA looks to go strongly negative **I've always considered this the most crucial EPO looks to get down to neutral **it was showing negative NAO looks to be positive **as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 What a nightmare. I’m afraid this is just what winter is like now. Thanks boomers. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 GFS with some snow at hour 138. Trending wetter this weekend on both GFS and CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: GFS with some snow at hour 138. Trending wetter this weekend on both GFS and CMC. From a clipper? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Sorry, but I have a very difficult time buying any LR model, including indices, at this juncture. They were awful these last few years. Last winter we had all these in our favor and nothing worked out. (With the exception being the early Dec snow.) We still have a solid 8 weeks left. All it takes is one storm to put us above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, ryan1234 said: Sorry, but I have a very difficult time buying any LR model, including indices, at this juncture. They were awful these last few years. Last winter we had all these in our favor and nothing worked out. (With the exception being the early Dec snow.) We still have a solid 8 weeks left. All it takes is one storm to put us above average. The problem is, especially with the GFS is, it shows extremely cold air at long lead times (8-10) days, and actually only verifies at about normal. Normal temps aren’t going to get us snow, and when models show a torch at 8-10 days out, it almost always verifies correctly.The inicies are showing favorable positions for cold and snowy, like -NAO, only to correct to positive at verification time. It’s pretty sad look over all for winter weather lovers! The mountains and ski resorts can’t even make snow the last 3-4 days, it just sucks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 The pattern is awful. So rest assured at this point there wont be any significant cold "sneaking up on us". We'll see it build over 10-14 days if and when trends turn in our favor. Until then, enjoy the early spring, late fall, whatever! If I had 4 months out of the year be exactly like today I would be quite the happy camper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 2 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: The pattern is awful. So rest assured at this point there wont be any significant cold "sneaking up on us". We'll see it build over 10-14 days if and when trends turn in our favor. Until then, enjoy the early spring, late fall, whatever! If I had 4 months out of the year be exactly like today I would be quite the happy camper. When the cold air finally puts Canada in the freezer, when it decides to slide down into the US, it’ll most definitely dump into the West and leave us the the SE ridge and a few more weeks of torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 5 hours ago, FallsLake said: Of course I'm hoping for the 12z model runs to show an epic SE snowstorm. But, I'm actually thinking they'll show warmer solutions in the LR. Looking at the indices, it doesn't look good. PNA looks to go strongly negative **I've always considered this the most crucial EPO looks to get down to neutral **it was showing negative NAO looks to be positive **as always. Yep. That PNA is a dagger for our part of the country. Like last Saturday night when the Tigers were down 16 to nothing, I am not quite ready to throw in the towel but we need a momentum changer before halftime. Maybe the winter referee is getting ready to call a targeting penalty or an overturned call from the booth would help too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Model Runs "took our cold away" Com'on Baby Light My fire,,, Tunes are in order.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Ummm nobody’s talking about the 18z!??? NC gets plastered with snow next Tuesday the 7th! It’s a clipper, but with the worst winter without a winter upcoming, you better take all you can get! It actually blows up just off the N.C. coast! DeeeeTeeeeee is licking his chops! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 35 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Ummm nobody’s talking about the 18z!??? NC gets plastered with snow next Tuesday the 7th! It’s a clipper, but with the worst winter without a winter upcoming, you better take all you can get! It actually blows up just off the N.C. coast! DeeeeTeeeeee is licking his chops! 90% of the board canceled winter or "punted" January. They would look silly talking up a snow event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 43 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Ummm nobody’s talking about the 18z!??? NC gets plastered with snow next Tuesday the 7th! It’s a clipper, but with the worst winter without a winter upcoming, you better take all you can get! It actually blows up just off the N.C. coast! DeeeeTeeeeee is licking his chops! It's the 18z. Next! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePackBacker Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Hope is a bad thing. The question we should be asking is just how warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 19 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: It's the 18z. Next! Aleet Aleet!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, ThePackBacker said: Hope is a bad thing. The question we should be asking is just how warm. Imposter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePackBacker Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, broken024 said: Imposter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 28 minutes ago, ThePackBacker said: Hope is a bad thing. The question we should be asking is just how warm. The real question is: How many pallets of pre emergent do we need for January? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePackBacker Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, mackerel_sky said: The real question is: How many pallets of pre emergent do we need for January? I would buy stock in Scott’s if I were you. And in Toro lawn mowers. The bees have returned, the bears are awake and the snakes are doing snake things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Now that I am home with the data in front of me...I will answer this...but its gonna hurt. First let me start with some hope...there were some similar patterns early in winter that flipped. The best 3 examples of that are 1965/66, 1999/2000 and 2004/5. This is the 1966 example. It went from this to this and a pretty epic period in late January and then another big storm in February. However...all 3 of those examples the pacific ridge pattern set in early in December and was already breaking down in the first half of January. This time the pattern is really just locking in during the first part of January. Big difference. In those 3 examples the pattern lasted a good month and then flipped. But a pattern setting in December with the jet still going through seasonal fluctuation is much different than one setting in January when the wavelengths are broad and the jet takes on its dominant winter phase. But I don't have all the answers...maybe those 3 should be used as hope that things could flip quick...although even in those examples quick wouldn't happen until February given the length of those patterns and that the same pattern is setting in a month later this year. If you want to sleep tonight I suggest you stop reading right now and disregard everything else I have to say because the rest of this is going to give you nightmares. Still reading.... you must really want punishment Wow you really hate yourself.... ok I warned you...you asked for it, don't blame me I am NOT paying for the therapy. Ok the reality those are NOT the real comps to this current situation. There are 15 similar January months to what the guidance is projecting for the first half of January. Assuming we do not get some kind of crazy fast shift...and nothing is hinting at that...it is highly likely January will feature a strong central PAC ridge and a +NAM state. 15 previous Januarys fit that. This is the composite of those years I think we can all agree that looks familiar...and is a good match to the current projections. Here are the facts you asked for...and I warned you, you are not going to like it. These are the Februarys that followed EVERY single one of those years was below average snowfall at BWI. Only one wasnt below avg at DCA. In all 15 of those years we only had one warning level snowfall in February and that was 2006. This was the patern that February. It took a complete reversal of the NAM state and great blocking to get the only good February we had following similar Januarys. I know some don't consider that month good because it was one "fluke" storm and then warmed up...but IMO we were unlucky not to get more storms that month. I don't see that storm as a fluke, I see it as a fluke that we only got that storm honestly. But whatever... IF you subtract that one year from the 15 February looks like this... And there were no warning level snowfalls and the avg february snowfall in DC those 14 years was 1.4". And this is the February temps for those months Bottom line... if the long range guidance is correct and what they are advertising day 10+ actually is reality... pray to god we get the 1 in 15 year miracle flip to a raging -NAO because otherwise we are toast and we are looking at a year like 1950, 1989, 2002, 2008, 2012... Maybe the CFS is right and the pac ridge ends up much further east than all other guidance and the MJO would indicate it will. Hug that and pray.... and don't blame me, I just put together the data...I am not happy about it and I didn't make it be and I am praying the guidance is wrong. I'll just leave this here. Sleep tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 42 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I'll just leave this here. Sleep tight. In summary, our winter outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 55 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I'll just leave this here. Sleep tight. I hate analogs, but I would generally agree with the sentiment. -PNA is hard to shake during the heart of winter. I think the final hope is that our 500mb pattern looks nothing like these composites starting the last week in January. It gives me reason to hold on just a little while longer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 But, but, but.....it just takes one storm! Miracle March will save us! I'm gonna spend my day off trolling Weather UToobers and their clickbaiting ways to keep me out of the sanitarium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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