jburns Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Another year begins. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Ah about a week early huh mr burns? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Ah about a week early huh mr burns?Not really, it's the holidays, so New Year's 2020 is Mid rangeSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Deep South snowstorm on 18z, 1/6/20 its happening! Right where we want it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Deep South snowstorm on 18z, 1/6/20 its happening! Right where we want itI just saw, Orangeburg got the lucky spot :laughs:Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 It's way early, but I've got a bit of an eye on the big low expected to slam California around New Years. Models all over the place with it but possible it digs so far south it leaves a piece behind. Fingers crossed that we draw in some cold air ahead of it. Ensembles are showing lower heights over SE Canada/Northeast which would point us in the right direction for cold HP to build in the following week after New Years. 18z GFS pretty close to that, though suppresses it. That's all there is to talk about as far as snow chances go in the long range for our area. GFS @144 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 19 minutes ago, Wow said: It's way early, but I've got a bit of an eye on the big low expected to slam California around New Years. Models all over the place with it but possible it digs so far south it leaves a piece behind. Fingers crossed that we draw in some cold air ahead of it. Ensembles are showing lower heights over SE Canada/Northeast which would point us in the right direction for cold HP to build in the following week after New Years. 18z GFS pretty close to that, though suppresses it. That's all there is to talk about as far as snow chances go in the long range for our area. GFS @144 You have the right eye open. But agree. Pattern ahead looks rather stormy. Interesting to say the least. Timeframe looks similar to the 12z Canadian. If we get a couple more of those upper lows in the south. That may cause a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Very quick summary of MA forum discussion today: For the foreseeable future pretty much zero chance of SE snow (outside of high terrain). Fairly decent shot of a cool/dry shot or two. In the very long range, models currently advertising a George Costanza pattern (ie the exact opposite of everything that is desirable). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Very quick summary of MA forum discussion today: For the foreseeable future pretty much zero chance of SE snow (outside of high terrain). Fairly decent shot of a cool/dry shot or two. In the very long range, models currently advertising a George Costanza pattern (ie the exact opposite of everything that is desirable).On to Dec. 2020...Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: On to Dec. 2020... Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Actually I am looking forward to our annual March -NAO outbreak which gets us flurries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Actually I am looking forward to our annual March -NAO outbreak which gets us flurries.Like clockwork, I remember a few years ago being in Savannah for the Low Country Powwow on St. Patrick's Day and is flizzarded all morning Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Love me some, Herp Albert.. The "Torch" shall continue... The 18Z GFS throws a bone for a great cold shot in the 252 hour range, If that comes to pass & We can get a Coastal Low, We might be in business.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Love me some, Herp Albert.. The "Torch" shall continue... The 18Z GFS throws a bone for a great cold shot in the 252 hour range, If that comes to pass & We can get a Coastal Low, We might be in business.. Positive thoughts... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Love me some, Herp Albert.. The "Torch" shall continue... The 18Z GFS throws a bone for a great cold shot in the 252 hour range, If that comes to pass & We can get a Coastal Low, We might be in business.. Positive thoughts... .0z says no bueno at 246... Southern Jet is all the way down in the KeysSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Positive Thoughts Let's try a Off-Sides Kick 00ZGFS & the 12Z (well somewhat), continues to show some "impressive"? Cold air in the 240hr range (Jan 6th-7th timeframe..).. A Couple ensembles show a Possible "Big Dog" for ya'll Mid-State, Most nothing at all, and a couple panels showing a "paste Bomb" for the Immediate Coast.. So Let's try a Off-Sides Kick.. Have the "Cold Air" in place, Develop a "LP" in the Southern Jet, The piece that WOW say gets left behind, (Yes the Models are "hinting" on that..) the same southerly Jet, Orangeburg says it's "In Da Keys".. Wish for a slight NE trend.. Alil "Suppression" and *Not a lot*.. At least We'll have "something" to work with.. We just might Be in Bidness.. Either Warm-nosed out here on the Coast, or a paste Bomb, or a REAL Cold rain.. (I don't care on the outcome),, Maybe ya'll will get something outta that, It's about the ONLY chance seen the past few weeks.. Something too watch for & keep a Eye on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 12Z Continues to show that Impressive "Cold Shot".. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 12Z Continues to show that Impressive "Cold Shot".. If we get a coastal cutter, that will work...Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Storm on 1/3-4, Storm on 1/11-12. Cold sandwiched in between them. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 15 minutes ago, Solak said: Storm on 1/3-4, Storm on 1/11-12. Cold sandwiched in between them. If the piece of energy that gets left behind from the 1/3-4 system hooks up with any northern stream energy, the on 1/5 system may have a chance at 1) heading further north than shown 2) pulling down the limited cold air more efficiently 3) spread some precip inland. However, with no blocking HP it would be a coastal cutter at best and a very transient system. We know we don't do well with transient systems without cold air already entrenched. At best this would be a rain system but for now, just another dry, average day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 It would take a lot for anything frozen based on the 12z. The cold is very fleeting, and not really all that 'cold'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Based on model trends and climatology, I believe we get a good winter storm in VA, NC, and upstate SC in the Jan 7 to Jan 12 range. Just an opinion, but there will be ample cold shots. Just need moisture. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Right on que, winter officially arrives along with a positive NAO. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: If the piece of energy that gets left behind from the 1/3-4 system hooks up with any northern stream energy, the on 1/5 system may have a chance at 1) heading further north than shown 2) pulling down the limited cold air more efficiently 3) spread some precip inland. However, with no blocking HP it would be a coastal cutter at best and a very transient system. We know we don't do well with transient systems without cold air already entrenched. At best this would be a rain system but for now, just another dry, average day... What is a coastal cutter? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 What is a coastal cutter?Jan. 2018... A LP that hooks up the SE coastSent from my A577VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 WSLS Roanoke: When it gets super cold in Alaska, we usually have to "watch out" 10 days afterward. The ridge that has supplied us with warmth will buckle soon, supplying a gateway for a sliver of that cold air to come down. Looks like after the first weekend of January https://t.co/AEc5fw3byv 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 pretty sure it is very cold in alaska right now saw a claim of 60below at one location 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 pretty sure it is very cold in alaska right now saw a claim of 60below at one location. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Summary of MA thread feeling for today: Apocalyptically bad pattern incoming. Not only is it horrible, it is the kind of pattern which tends to get dug in for months at a time. Strong Objective-based evidence for fearing for all of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Summary of MA thread feeling for today: Apocalyptically bad pattern incoming. Not only is it horrible, it is the kind of pattern which tends to get dug in for months at a time. Strong Objective-based evidence for fearing for all of January. See sanitarium post. I'm done. It's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now